人民幣貶值能緩解貿易戰衝擊,但也有代價

China has a simple weapon it can use to try and foil President Trump’s tariffs.

中國有一個簡單的武器，可用來嘗試挫敗特朗普總統的關稅。

Will it work?

能起作用嗎？

The value of China’s currency, the renminbi, has fallen over 7 percent against the dollar since mid-April, an unusually large move. A lower renminbi makes China’s exports cheaper to foreign buyers, which is particularly helpful right now when Mr. Trump’s tariffs are making many Chinese goods more expensive in the United States market. And since China’s government manages the value of its currency, the decline certainly has its blessing.

自4月中旬以來，人民幣兌美元的匯率已下跌了逾7%，這是一個異常大的變化。人民幣貶值使中國的出口商品對外國買家來說更便宜，在特朗普的關稅讓許多中國商品在美國市場上變得更貴的時候，這一點尤其有幫助。而且，由於中國政府是人民幣匯率的管理者，人民幣貶值當然是得到政府批准的。

Mr. Trump in a tweet last week said the weakness of the renminbi was eroding the United States’ competitive edge.

特朗普上週發推說，人民幣走弱正在侵蝕美國的競爭優勢。

The Chinese authorities have said they are not deliberately weakening the value of the renminbi to gain an advantage in the trade conflict. And some of the recent decline in the currency may have been driven by economic factors unrelated to trade.

中國當局已表示，他們並不是在故意壓低人民幣的價值，以在貿易衝突中獲得優勢。而且，導致人民幣最近貶值的部分原因可能來自與貿易無關的其他經濟因素。

But the renminbi does not trade freely. Its price must each day rise or fall within a strict range set by the central bank. That range has been steadily lowered.

但是，人民幣不能自由交易。其交易價只能在央行每日設定的嚴格範圍內上下波動。人民幣的指導價一直在穩步降低。

The recent slide, which took the renminbi back to last year’s levels, began as the trade-war rhetoric was heating up.

人民幣最近的下跌使其回到了去年的水平，下跌是在貿易戰言論不斷升溫時開始的。

While a weakening currency can soften economic blows, it also comes with costs.

雖然貨幣走弱可以緩解經濟衝擊，但也有代價。

When China devalued its currency three years ago, fear spread through the country’s economy and markets around the world.

三年前，中國讓人民幣貶值時，人們的恐懼曾影響了中國經濟，還波及了全球各地的市場。

But for China, letting the renminbi slide may have advantages over other responses to American tariffs. Since China exports far more to the United States than it imports, it cannot respond with tariffs on anywhere near the same amount of American products.

但對中國來說，用人民幣貶值來應對美國的關稅，可能比其他方法更具優勢。由於中國對美國的出口遠遠超過從美國的進口，中國能徵收關稅的美國產品價值，不可能接近美國能對中國徵收關稅的產品價值。

Devaluations carry a legion of risks, though.

然而，貨幣貶值帶來大量的風險。

First, it’s not clear the extent to which China might need to let its currency weaken. The decline of the past three months has potentially benefited all of China’s exports to the United States, which last year totaled over $500 billion, and partially offset the impact of the tariffs imposed so far. The United States’ first tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods, which took effect this month, are set at 25 percent.

首先，人們尚不清楚中國可能需要在多大程度上讓人民幣貶值。過去三個月的貶值可能已讓所有的中國對美出口受益，去年中國對美國的出口總額超過5000億美元，貶值也可能部分抵消了加徵關稅到目前爲止所帶來的影響。美國從本月開始對價值340億美元的首批中國商品加徵25%的關稅。

Other tariffs proposed by Mr. Trump, on a larger value of goods, would be set much lower at 10 percent. But Chinese policymakers would likely want to avoid a situation in which investors and others believed the level of the currency was directly affected by developments in the trade war.

特朗普已提出要對更大範圍的中國產品加徵關稅，但加徵的幅度較低，只有10%。但中國的政策制定者們可能會希望避免一種情況，那就是讓投資者和其他人認爲，匯率水平直接受貿易戰的影響。

And a big slide could hurt China.

而且，貨幣大幅貶值可能會給中國帶來傷害。

A nose-dive in the renminbi would come at a difficult time for the Chinese economy. A dizzying rise in borrowing has driven a considerable portion of China’s growth. The government, fearing that some borrowers will have problems repaying the debt, has tried to restrain borrowing. But such limits can also slow the economy, which is why some constraints were recently loosened.

如果人民幣大幅貶值，會發生在中國經濟面臨艱難的時刻。中國經濟增長的相當一部分是靠令人目眩的借貸增長。政府擔心一些借款者將在債務償還上出問題，因此試圖限制借貸。但這種限制也會減緩經濟增長，這就是爲什麼政府最近放鬆了一些限制。

Fears about China’s debts were on the rise in 2015 when the government carried out a surprise devaluation.

2015年，當人們對中國債務的擔憂有所增長時，中國政府出人意料地開始讓貨幣貶值。

Individuals and companies in China dumped renminbi and bought other currencies, to protect their wealth against further decreases in the value of the Chinese currency. The selling, known as capital flight, suggested that the Chinese had little faith in their own economy, and raised questions about the Chinese central bank’s handling of the devaluation. The other big fear at the time was that the prices of Chinese goods in other countries would fall, forcing producers there to also cut their prices and hurt the wider economy in the process.

爲保護自己的財富不受人民幣進一步貶值的影響，中國的個人和企業紛紛拋售人民幣，買入其他貨幣。這種被稱爲資本外逃的拋售表明，中國人對本國經濟缺乏信心，並對中國央行讓人民幣貶值的做法有疑問。當時的另一個重大擔憂是，中國產品在其他國家會降價，迫使其他國家的生產商也紛紛降價，從而在這個過程中給更廣泛的經濟帶來損害。

China imposed new “capital controls” that stanched the capital flight, and a pick up in the global economy and prices alleviated the concern about cheaper Chinese goods. The added controls and the fact that the global economy is in somewhat better health may allow China to do another devaluation without creating as many jitters. But it would still be a hard task to carry out, in part because individuals and firms find ways around the rules.

中國採取了新的“資本管制”措施，遏制了資本外逃，全球經濟和價格的回升緩解了人們對中國商品變得更便宜的擔憂。現有的資本管制措施，以及全球經濟狀況正在好轉的事實，也許會允許中國再次讓人民幣貶值，而不至於引發太多的不安情緒。但這仍將是一項艱鉅的任務，部分原因是個人和公司能找到繞過管制的方法。

“Carrying out a controlled depreciation is one of the most difficult maneuvers a central bank can pull off,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “China, through using capital controls and its reserves, could pull it off again, but there is a risk that a weaker currency is taken as evidence that China can’t assure financial stability.”

“在央行能夠實施的策略中，貨幣的受控貶值是最爲棘手的一項，”美國外交關係委員會高級研究員布拉德·塞策(Brad Setser)說。“中國靠資本管制和外匯儲備也許能再次成功做到，但一種風險是，人們會把人民幣走弱視爲中國不能保障金融穩定的證據。”

And the factors that perhaps slowed the selling of the renminbi no longer exist. Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, notes that the dollar weakened substantially in 2017, which, he says, helped stabilize the value of the renminbi.

而且，可能緩解人民幣拋售的因素已不復存在。國際金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)首席經濟學家羅賓·布魯克斯(Robin Brooks)指出，美元曾在2017年大幅走弱，這對穩定人民幣的價值有所幫助。

“If the dollar picks up again, it is an open question how well capital account restrictions will work to stem the potential capital flight,” Mr. Brooks wrote in an email.

“如果美元重新升值，限制資本賬戶的做法對有效地遏制潛在的資本外逃會有多大作用，是一個尚無答案的問題，”布魯克斯在一封電子郵件中寫道。