人民幣貶值背後的平靜

A record run of declines; its worst performance since last year’s surprise devAluation and eight-year lows plumbed on a near-daily basis.

連續下跌天數創紀錄；自去年意外貶值以來的最差表現，幾乎一天內猛跌至8年低點。

Whichever way you cut it, China’s currency is having a testing Month.

無論從哪說起，本月人民幣走勢都很考驗人。

However, unlike the infamous devaluation ruckus in August 2015, and the turmoil in markets that followed renminbi weakness in January, investors are not panicking this time.

然而，與2015年8月的拙劣貶值鬧劇以及今年1月人民幣疲軟導致的市場動盪不同，這一次投資者並沒有恐慌。

At least not yet.

至少目前還沒有。

This month the offshore renminbi has lost 2 per cent, taking its drop to 5 per cent so far this year.

本月，離岸人民幣跌了2%，使今年迄今的貶值幅度達到5%。

On Monday, the onshore rate touched an eight-year low of Rmb6.8991 against the dollar, while the offshore rate reached Rmb6.9181 — another record.

週一，在岸人民幣匯率觸及1美元兌6.8991元人民幣的8年低點，而離岸匯率達到1美元兌6.9181元人民幣，同樣創紀錄。

What a lot of clients are asking and what a lot of people are worried about is if people begin to think it’s disorderly — that is where it would have a blowback on the global markets, says Mansoor Mohi-udddin, strategist at RBS, who still ranks the renminbi as a top-three risk for global markets.

很多客戶都在問的，很多人都在擔心的，是人們是否開始認爲這次貶值是無序的，那樣就會對全球市場造成反衝，蘇格蘭皇家銀行(RBS)的策略師曼蘇爾.莫希-烏丁(Mansoor Mohi-Uddin)說，他仍把人民幣列爲威脅全球市場的前三大風險之一。

I don’t think we can dismiss the risk of depreciation becoming more disorderly over time.

我認爲我們不能忽視人民幣貶值可能變得越來越無序的風險。

One important factor for the calm amid the decline, say investors and strategists, is the market’s comfort with the way China appears to be managing its currency, not against the dollar but against the trade-weighted basket it first detailed last year.

投資者和策略師表示，市場之所以對人民幣貶值保持冷靜，有一個重要因素是市場對中國表現出的管理人民幣的方式——不是瞄準美元，而是以其去年首次詳細介紹的貿易加權貨幣籃子爲目標——感到放心。

The renminbi, for example, has lost less against the dollar than almost all its emerging market peers in the fortnight since Donald Trump was elected US president.

例如，在唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)當選爲美國總統以來的兩週內，人民幣對美元的貶值幅度小於幾乎所有其他新興市場貨幣。

The onshore rate is down 1.5 per cent, while the offshore renminbi, which in theory trades freely and reflects the international views of China, has fallen 1.6 per cent.

在岸人民幣下跌了1.5%，而離岸人民幣——理論上可以自由交易，其走勢反映國際市場對中國的看法——下跌了1.6%。

Only Russia’s rouble, off 0.2 per cent, has fared better against the dollar.

表現比人民幣好的只有俄羅斯的盧布，兌美元匯率僅下跌0.2%。

In this context, the renminbi’s persistent weakness appears the mirror image of the dollar’s strength, rather than evidence of domestic economic pressures in China that investors feared in the August 2015 episode and again this January.

在這種大背景下，人民幣持續疲軟似乎對應着美元強勢，而不表明中國國內經濟存在壓力，那正是2015年8月和今年1月兩波貶值中投資者所擔心的。

Over the past two weeks the renminbi has, in fact, gained against its basket of currencies even as it has weakened against the greenback.

過去兩週中，雖然人民幣對美元下跌，對一籃子貨幣卻是上升的。

It’s not perfect science, you see moves which are not always exactly in that direction [implied by the basket], but a stronger dollar is just translating into weak global currencies as well as the renminbi, said Neeraj Seth, head of Asian credit at BlackRock.

這不是精確的科學，你會看到匯率並不總是完全朝（貨幣籃子所暗示）應有方向移動，但是強勢美元正在促成全球貨幣包括人民幣的弱勢，貝萊德(BlackRock)亞洲信貸部主管尼拉吉.賽斯(Neeraj Seth)說。

What that means from a practical perspective, is if you get a stronger dollar, you should expect to see a weaker renminbi against the dollar but not necessarily against the trade-weighted basket.

實事求是地說，這意味着如果美元處於升勢，你應該預料會看到人民幣對美元走弱，但未必會對一籃子貿易加權貨幣走弱。

Although the renminbi’s volatility has risen, it’s so far mostly in line with moves by other currencies.

雖然人民幣的波動率上升，但到目前爲止與其他貨幣的情況大體一致。

One-year implied volatility, a measure of market expectations of how much it could swing, is 8 per cent.

一年期隱含波動率——一項衡量市場對波動幅度預期的指標——爲8%。

That’s relatively low in currency terms and well below the peaks of more than 10 per cent touched in January.

這在匯率方面是相對較低的，遠低於1月觸及的逾10%的峯值。

This is a big contrast to August 2015 — I still remember the jump then from about 3.5 per cent to near 7 per cent, says Ken Hu, Invesco’s chief investment officer for fixed income in Asia-Pacific.

這與2015年8月的情況形成鮮明反差——我仍然記得當時波動率從3.5%跳升至接近7%的水平，景順(Invesco)亞太區固定收益部首席投資總監胡嘉林(Ken Hu)說：

Since then the market has been expecting the renminbi to have quite similar movements to the Singapore dollar — also a currency pegged to a basket.

從那時起，市場一直預期人民幣會走出類似新加坡元的行情——新加坡元也跟一籃子貨幣掛鉤。

The key unknown is Mr Trump, whose protectionist rhetoric and promises were a key part of his election campaign.

關鍵的未知因素是特朗普，他的保護主義言論和承諾是他的競選活動的關鍵部分。

The property mogul has promised to label a currency manipulator on the first day of his administration.

這位地產大亨承諾，他上任第一天就把中國列爲匯率操縱國。

That said, the question of trade policies has yet to cross the lips of the president-elect or his advisers since the election.

話雖如此，自大選以後，這位當選總統和他的顧問們尚未提過貿易政策問題。

It is a silence that has given investors some reason to believe he intends to tone down his belligerent campaign talk.

這樣的沉默，讓投資者有些許理由相信，特朗普打算緩和他在競選中咄咄逼人的言論。

Indeed, the Trump administration’s initial focus is likely to be on infrastructure and tax cuts, says Derek Halpenny, currency strategist at MUFG.

事實上，三菱日聯金融集團(MUFG)的匯率策略師德里克.赫爾潘尼(Derek Halpenny)說，特朗普政府最初的重點可能是基建和減稅。

That, though, does not mean the president-elect will refrain from citing China as a currency manipulator.

不過，這並不意味着這位當選總統不會把中國列爲匯率操縱國。

But what would that mean? It formalises bilateral discussions with China that could ultimately lead to tariffs being put in place, but there is a timeframe for this and it won’t be immediate, Mr Halpenny adds.

但是這意味着什麼？這表明美國確定了要與中國展開雙邊談判，最終可能導致對中國提高關稅，但這是有時間框架的，不會是立即實施，赫爾潘尼補充說。

I’m not sure markets would be that unsettled by China being cited.

我不確定如果中國被列爲匯率操縱國，市場會不會感到不安。

Still, the renminbi’s steady weakening has prompted foreign-exchange strategists to lower forecasts for next year.

儘管如此，人民幣的持續走弱已促使外匯策略師調低明年的預期。

Goldman Sachs’ team has made one of the bolder predictions, expecting the currency to reach Rmb7 against the dollar in three months and Rmb7.30 by the end of 2017 as the onshore trading range continues to grind higher, driven by domestic pressures and in the context of a stronger dollar.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)團隊做出了較大膽的預測，預計三個月內將達到1美元兌換7元人民幣的關口，到2017年年底達到1美元兌換7.30元人民幣，同時，迫於國內壓力，加上處在強勢美元的背景下，在岸人民幣交易區間將繼續緩慢擴大。

The median of analysts’ forecasts put the renminbi at Rmb7 against the dollar by the end of 2017, up from expectations six months ago it would be at Rmb6.8.

對於2017年底人民幣兌美元匯率水平，分析師預測中值是1美元兌7元人民幣，而6個月前的預測中值爲1美元兌6.8元人民幣。

Forward contracts, a measure of market bets, imply it will reach Rmb7.12.

遠期合約（衡量市場押注情況）暗示到時匯率水平爲1美元兌7.12元人民幣。

An orderly decline, or a Trump-generated disorderly fall? What the president says, and how China responds, will be high on investors’ 2017 watchlist.

有序下跌，還是特朗普引發的無序下挫？這位總統怎麼說，以及中國如何迴應，將是投資者2017年觀察清單中的重要事項。