中國官方否認策劃人民幣貶值

The renminbi has suffered its steepest weekly fAll against the US dollar since China reformed its exchange rate system in 2005 in a move that some economists have interpreted as a warning from the country’s central bank to currency speculators.

人民幣兌美元匯率出現自2005年中國實施匯改以來的最大單週跌幅。一些經濟學家將這解讀爲中國央行對外匯投機者發出的一次警告。

The renminbi posted its seventh straight daily decline yesterday, sliding 0.02 per cent against the dollar to close at 6.1244 having hit its lowest level since early August in intraday trading.

昨日，人民幣匯率連續第7天下跌，人民幣兌美元匯率收跌0.02%，至1美元兌6.1244元人民幣，盤中一度創下去年8月初以來的低點。

One popular theory among economists and investors is that the People’s Bank of China engineered the depreciation because it was concerned about huge inflows of capital in recent months and wanted to show markets that trading the currency was not a one-way bet. Analysts had been forecasting a continuation of the appreciation seen since late 2012.

經濟學家和投資者較認可的一個解讀是，中國央行策劃了這波人民幣貶值，因爲其對近幾月的鉅額資金流入感到擔心，想向市場表明單向押注人民幣匯率走勢是行不通的。2012年末以來，分析師一直預測人民幣會持續升值。

However, the Chinese central bank used its first official statement on the sudden weakening of the country’s currency to say the sell-off was a reflection of market forces and should not be over-interpreted.

然而，中國央行在其就人民幣突然貶值發表的首份官方聲明中表示，這是市場力量的反映，不應過分解讀。

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, an agency under the central bank, did not acknowledge any role in guiding the currency. “The recent movement of the renminbi exchange rate is the result of market players adjusting their near-term trading strategies,” it said.

中國央行下屬的中國國家外匯管理局不承認在引導匯率走勢方面發揮了什麼作用。該局表示：“近期人民幣匯率走勢是市場主體調整前期人民幣交易策略的結果。

“The degree of exchange rate volatility is normal by the standards of developed and emerging markets.”

“這次匯率波動幅度與發達和新興市場貨幣的波動相比屬於正常波動。

After huge investment and trade inflows at the start of the year, there was a clear reversal of the trend in February, according to China Financial News, a central bank newspaper.

中國央行主管的報紙《金融時報》(Chinese Financial News)報道稱，在今年初出現巨大的投資與貿易流入之後，2月份趨勢發生了明顯的逆轉。

“Risk appetite has weakened somewhat because of lower-than-expected growth data. Also, concerns about the property market have increased,” said Peng Wensheng, an economist with China International Capital Corp, the research group.

中國國際金融公司(CICC)經濟學家彭文生說：“風險偏好下降的原因多少在於遜於預期的增長數據。另外，房地產市場引起的擔憂也有所加劇。”

However, the hand of the ­Chinese central bank, which keeps a tight grip on the exchange rate, has been evident. When the currency started falling last week it was the central bank that steadily lowered its daily reference rate, while banks and companies continued to trade it at a stronger level.

然而，一直嚴格管控匯率的中國央行在這波人民幣貶值中的作用是顯而易見的。上週人民幣匯率開始下跌時，是中國央行在穩步下調人民幣匯率中間價，而銀行和企業則在不斷將人民幣匯率水平推高至中間價上方。

It was only over the past two days that the market-traded exchange rate fell below the daily rate set by the central bank – a sign that Beijing has, for now, succeeded in breaking at least some of the one-way bets on appreciation.

只是在過去兩天裏，市場交易給出的人民幣匯率才降至中國央行設定的中間價下方。這一跡象表明，北京方面目前至少在一定程度上打破了人民幣單邊升值預期。

China faced immense capital inflows at the start of this year, according to data published on Tuesday by the central bank.

中國央行週二發佈的數據顯示，今年初流入中國的資金規模十分龐大。

Banks bought a net $73bn of foreign currency in the onshore market from their clients who wanted renminbi in January, the biggest monthly amount on record. Inflows have been accelerating since the middle of last year when China’s mountain of foreign exchange reserves grew by $500bn to $3.8tn.

今年1月，銀行在在岸市場從想持有人民幣的客戶手中淨買入了730億美元的外匯，創下了最大的單月買入量。去年年中，中國的鉅額外匯儲備增加了5000億美元，達到3.8萬億美元。自那以來，資金一直在加速流入中國。