中國鋼材衝擊歐美 貿易規則即將改寫

CARDIFF, Wales — With thunderous roars and flashes of blue light, an electric arc furnace at a steel mill in this industrial city melts 170 tons of scrap metal at a time, which is made into reinforcing bars for construction projects across Britain.

威爾士加的夫——伴隨着雷鳴般的響聲和藍色閃光，在這個工業城市的一座鋼鐵廠裏，電弧爐一次可以融化170噸廢鐵，將它們製成英國各地建設項目所需的鋼筋。

The furnace, decked out with all the latest gear, helps keep costs down by relying on local scrap instead of imported materials. It was part of a broad $500 million investment plan to make the steel mill competitive and profitable.

這座電弧爐擁有各種最新裝備，使用當地廢鋼鐵而非進口材料，有助於降低成本。這是一個綜合投資計劃的一部分。整個計劃規模達5億美元，旨在提升這家鋼鐵廠的競爭力和贏利能力。

But China has stymied the strategy.

然而，中國讓這個計劃擱淺了。

The steel mill, owned by the privately held Celsa Group of Spain, just cannot compete with Chinese rivals, which offered products at 20 percent below prevailing rates in Britain. Celsa estimates that Chinese companies at one point accounted for about half of the region’s sales in a certain type of reinforcing bar, up from essentially nothing just four years ago.

這座鋼鐵廠隸屬於西班牙私人公司Celsa集團，完全無法與中國對手競爭，因爲中國產品的報價比英國當前的市價低20%。Celsa集團估計，在某個時候，該地區銷售的某類型鋼筋大約一半來自中國公司，而僅僅四年之前它們的份額幾乎爲零。

“It’s nice to have free trade, but it has to be fair,” said Luis Sanz, the managing director for British operations at Celsa.

“自由貿易是件好事，但前提是必須公平，”Celsa集團負責英國業務的執行董事路易斯·桑斯(Luis Sanz)說。

The steel industry sits at the crux of a major debate playing out across the world economy, one that could soon be intensified by a looming change in the global trade rules.

鋼鐵行業處在一個涉及全球經濟各領域的重大爭議的核心，而全球貿易規則即將發生改變，這個問題可能也會很快隨之愈演愈烈。

As China’s economy has slowed, the country’s manufacturers, in varied areas like solar panels, tires, aluminum and shoes, have been in a desperate hunt to maintain sales and avoid layoffs. Looking beyond their borders, many are offering rock-bottom prices to win orders.

隨着中國經濟放緩，該國太陽能組件、輪胎、鋁材和鞋等各種領域的生產商正在拼命維持銷售，避免裁減人員。放眼全球，爲了贏得訂單，很多公司報出了最低價格。

The heavy discounting has fed a backlash. Politicians like the American presidential candidates Donald J. Trump and Bernie Sanders are railing against free trade, saying the rules hurt domestic workers. Countries are crying foul, claiming that Chinese exporters are dumping goods.

這樣的大幅折扣引發了牴觸情緒。美國總統候選人唐納德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)和伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)等政界人士在大力批駁自由貿易，宣稱其中的規則給美國勞動者造成了損失。各國紛紛大呼不公，聲稱中國正在向國外傾銷商品。

And the dynamics are getting more complicated, as a crucial provision of global trade rules expires in December.

隨着全球貿易規則的一個關鍵條款將在今年12月到期，情況正在變得愈加複雜。

When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the country was labeled a nonmarket economy, at the insistence of the United States and Europe. The technical designation makes it easier to prove that China is dumping goods in foreign markets, allowing countries to slap tariffs on those products. In March, the United States imposed a prohibitive 266 percent tariff on certain Chinese steel makers for selling below cost.

中國於2001年加入世界貿易組織(WTO)的時候，在美國和歐洲的堅持下，中國被打上了“非市場經濟體”的標籤。有了這個技術性的說法，要證明中國向海外市場傾銷商品就變得比較容易，於是各國便可以對這些產品徵收關稅。今年3月，美國對一些低於成本價銷售產品的中國鋼鐵企業徵收了266%的懲罰性關稅。

Calculating production costs in China is tricky. The true costs are often obscured by politically guided policies that benefit companies, including state-backed loans at below-market interest rates and free land for job-creating factories.

計算中國的生產成本是一件頗爲棘手的事情。政治導向的政策會給企業帶來一些優惠，比如提供低於市場利率的國家扶持貸款、爲提供就業崗位的工廠無償供應土地等等，而這些政策常常會掩蓋真實的成本。

Given China’s designation in the W.T.O., the United States, Europe and others can use a proxy country, a locale with a similar level of income and better data like Poland, Thailand or South Africa, to help determine production costs. The proxy countries often have higher costs than China, which has greater economies of scale.

由於中國被WTO視爲非市場經濟國家，美國、歐洲和其他國家就可以使用一個收入水平相同、但數據更準確的地區作爲代理國——比如波蘭、泰國和南非——來幫助確定產品的成本。這些代理國的成本常常高於中國，因爲中國擁有更大的規模經濟。

China is beginning a global lobbying push to bar the use of proxy countries. Chinese ministers have been meeting with overseas leaders and with executives of businesses that sell to China. The country is calling for W.T.O. members to “acknowledge China’s market economy status” and “to adopt the necessary measures as soon as possible,” the commerce ministry said in a faxed response to questions.

中國已經開始在全球開展遊說活動，希望停止使用代理國的做法。中國的部長們一直在與外國領導人及在中國銷售產品的企業高管溝通。商務部在一份迴應問題的傳真中表示，中國呼籲WTO成員“承認中國的市場經濟地位”，並“儘快採取必要措施”。

But the rules are somewhat ambiguous, complicating China’s efforts. The 2001 W.T.O. agreement explicitly authorizes the use of proxy countries through December in cases against China, but it is silent about what happens after that.

不過，規則本身有些模糊，給中國的努力增添了變數。2001年的WTO協議明確規定，到今年12月底，針對中國使用代理國的做法將到期，但卻沒有說之後會怎麼樣。

The Europeans and Americans are skeptical about whether China actually qualifies as a so-called market economy. In a market economy, supply and demand are the guiding forces. In China, the government also plays a major role, dictating investments, strategy, even when a plant can close.

中國是否真的有資格獲得市場經濟的地位？歐洲和美國對此表示懷疑。在市場經濟體中，供需纔是主導力量。但在中國，政府也發揮了重要作用，能夠決定投資和策略，乃至一家工廠什麼時候可以關停。

China’s policies have helped create extensive overcapacity. China makes 50 percent of the world’s steel, 55 percent of its aluminum and 60 percent of its cement, even as its domestic demand has weakened.

對於大量的產能過剩，中國的政策起到了推波助瀾的作用。即便國內需求有所減弱，中國出品的鋼鐵仍佔全球產量的50%，鋁材佔55%，水泥佔60%。

“They’re nowhere near a market economy, and it’s delusional to think that they are,” said Leo W. Gerard, the president of the United Steelworkers Union.

“他們遠非市場經濟，以爲他們是市場經濟純屬幻覺，”美國鋼鐵工人聯合會(United Steelworkers Union)會長利奧·W·傑拉爾德(Leo W. Gerard)說。

The tensions have been palpable in steel.

在鋼鐵行業，形勢的緊張顯露無遺。

Celsa and other Western steel manufacturers got clobbered by the global financial crisis that started in 2008, as demand sank and prices dropped. When the industry started to recover, they faced a growing competitive threat from China.

於2008年開始的全球金融危機導致鋼鐵需求疲軟、價格猛跌，令Celsa等西方鋼鐵生產商遭受了重挫。就在行業開始復甦的時候，它們又面臨着來自中國的日益加劇的競爭威脅。

In the last three years, Chinese steel exports more than doubled to 107 million metric tons, higher than the annual raw steel production of the United States. Prices fell steeply, although they have perked up lately on speculation of renewed demand in China.

過去三年，中國鋼材出口量增加了一倍以上，達1.07億噸，超過美國一年的粗鋼產量。鋼價急劇下跌，儘管對中國需求復甦的預測最近帶來了一波價格反彈。

The result has been a shakeout in steel.

其結果就是鋼鐵行業的重組。

Celsa has not turned a profit in seven years. ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel maker, announced an annual loss of nearly $8 billion in February, blaming Chinese competition. Since the beginning of last year, United States Steel has cut 5,000 jobs and warned that thousands of others are at risk.

Celsa已經七年沒有盈利。全球最大的鋼鐵生產商安賽樂米塔爾(ArcelorMittal)今年2月宣佈去年虧損近80億美元，並將其歸咎於來自中國的競爭。自去年年初以來，美國鋼鐵公司(United States Steel)削減了5000個崗位，並警告還有數以千計的人面臨裁員危險。

“Unfairly traded steel imports have reached historic levels in 2015 and 2016, taking almost 30 percent share of the domestic steel market,” Doug Matthews, a U.S. Steel executive, testified in a government hearing last month.

“不公平的鋼材進口在2015年和2016年達到了歷史最高水平，佔據了國內鋼材市場近30%的份額，”美國鋼鐵公司的高管道格·馬修斯(Doug Matthews)上個月出席一次政府聽證會時表示。

China faces its own share of pain.

中國自己也在承受煎熬。

Hundreds of steel makers are limping along, overloaded with debt and battered by weak prices. The chairman of Dongbei Special Steel, a large Chinese company, hanged himself in March, days before the company began defaulting on loans.

成百上千的鋼鐵生產商正在艱難地維持經營，沉重的債務和疲軟的價格令它們舉步維艱。今年3月，大型企業東北特殊鋼鐵集團出現貸款違約的數天前，其董事長自縊身亡。

The global downturn has created a political firestorm. In February, thousands of steelworkers marched in Brussels, the headquarters of the European Union, demanding protection from Chinese products.

全球經濟下行引發了一場政治風暴。今年2月，數以千計的鋼鐵工人在歐盟總部布魯塞爾遊行，要求獲得保護，免受中國產品的衝擊。

The issue flared up again when Tata Steel announced plans to sell or close its money-losing business in Britain, prompting calls for an emergency session of Parliament. Tata has managed to find takers for some of its plants, but about 11,000 jobs in Britain remain at risk.

這個問題後來又再次爆發：塔塔鋼鐵公司(Tata Steel)宣佈計劃出售或關停在英國的虧本生意，以致有人呼籲英國議會就此召開緊急會議。塔塔的部分工廠找到了買家，但英國仍有約1.1萬個工作崗位面臨風險。

“Effective antidumping measures have to be implemented as quickly as possible,” said Wolfgang Eder, chief executive of Voestalpine, one of Europe’s largest steel makers, warning that “many thousands more E.U. jobs are under severe threat.”

“必須儘快實施有效的反傾銷措施，”歐洲規模居前的鋼鐵生產商奧鋼聯集團(Voestalpine)的首席執行官沃爾夫岡·埃德(Wolfgang Eder)警告。“歐洲還有數以千計的工作崗位面臨着嚴重威脅。”

The political mess could set up a standoff over the W.T.O. rules, since they are one of the industry’s main defense mechanisms.

政治上的困境可能會造成圍繞WTO規則的僵局，因爲這是該行業主要的防禦機制之一。

The Obama administration has pressed China to follow through on promises of market-oriented reforms, to help level the playing field. The administration has not taken a public position on whether to repeal proxy country procedures for China, which would require legislation.

奧巴馬政府一直在向中國施壓，要其兌現自己有關市場化改革的承諾，幫助創造公平的競爭環境。至於是否廢除針對中國的代理國程序，奧巴馬政府並沒有公開表態。要實現這一點，需要立法。

Getting legislation through Congress is even more difficult than usual this year. Trade is a touchy subject in the presidential election. And the administration’s trade priority is to win congressional approval of the Trans-Pacific Partnership with China’s economic rivals in the region, including Japan and Vietnam.

然而，今年要讓國會通過立法，難度更勝以往。在此次總統競選中，貿易是一個棘手的議題。本屆政府在貿易領域的優先考慮是讓國會批准《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)。參與協定的成員國包括日本和越南等中國在地區的競爭對手。

Europe, which is just starting to consider the issue, is looking at a compromise, by toughening penalties against China while still conferring market status on the country. Doing nothing “may well create new and serious frictions in our bilateral relationship with China,” Cecilia Malmström, the European trade commissioner, said in a speech in March, adding that three million jobs in Europe depend on sales to China.

歐洲則剛開始考慮這一問題，着眼於達成妥協，方式是強化針對中國的處罰，同時仍然賦予該國市場經濟地位。什麼也不做“很可能會在我們和中國的雙邊關係中製造新的嚴重摩擦，”歐盟委員會負責貿易事務的委員塞西莉亞·馬爾姆斯特倫(Cecilia Malmström)在今年3月的一次發言中說道。她還表示，歐洲有300萬個工作機會依賴於向中國銷售產品。

The two-way relationship is what makes the trade rules so complex.

正是這種雙向關係使這些貿易規則變得非常複雜。

If China does not prevail, some players worry about getting stuck with insufficient and high-cost goods from local factories. “We don’t want locals to go out of business, but we want it to be free and fair,” said Jeffrey Kabel, the chairman of the International Steel Trade Association, a group in London that represents the entire steel food chain, including traders, producers and users. A big worry among customers, he said, is that they “won’t have a choice for buying.”

如果中國不能如願，一些參與方可能會擔心自己不得不接受當地工廠生產的數量不足且價格高昂的產品。“我們不希望本地企業破產，但我們希望能實現自由和公平貿易，”國際鋼鐵貿易協會(International Steel Trade Association)主席傑弗裏·卡貝爾(Jeffrey Kabel)表示。這個位於倫敦的組織代表整個鋼鐵產業鏈的利益，包括貿易商、生產商和用戶。他表示，消費者的一大擔心是，他們“不再有權選擇購買什麼”。

On the flip side, the Celsa production line, with its glowing metal rods, employs about 750 people. Mr. Sanz said the plant was not yet ready to start layoffs, although the jobs could also not be guaranteed.

另一方面，能造出鋥亮鋼材的Celsa生產線僱傭了大約750人。桑斯表示，這家工廠還沒準備開始裁員，不過這些工作也不能確保依然存在。

“We want fair competition to see who survives,” he said.

“我們希望通過公平的競爭來決定誰能存活下去，”他說。