中國未必會讓人民幣貶值

If there is consensus on any single trade these uncertain days, it is that the dollar will continue rising, up 23 per cent since June, albeit with some volatility. Equally, there is agreement that an ascendant dollar will only aggravate the negative circumstances of emerging markets. “2015 may turn out to be the year of localised emerging market currency crises,” notes Stephen Jen, of SLJ Macro in London.

在最近這種不確定的日子裏，如果說人們還對某個市場走向有共同的看法，那就是美元將繼續上漲——自去年6月以來美元已經上漲了23%，儘管中間有一些波動。人們還認爲，美元不斷上漲肯定會使新興市場的處境更加不利。倫敦SLJ Macro的任永力(Stephen Jen)指出：“2015年新興市場可能遭遇局部性的貨幣危機。”

Less alarmingly, JPMorgan economists recently noted: “Many emerging markets are hobbled by some combination of depressed corporate profitability, excessive private sector leverage, tight financial conditions and poor governance,” to which add fears of capital outflows.

讓人也有點擔心的是，摩根大通(JPMorgan)經濟學家們最近指出：“許多新興市場受到企業盈利能力疲弱、私人部門過度槓桿化、金融狀況緊縮以及治理不善等因素綜合作用的困擾。”除此之外它們還擔憂資本外流。

There is a lot of history on the side of the pessimists. Many emerging market corporates set aside the lessons of history and borrowed cheap dollars a few years ago, even if they lacked dollar revenues. They assumed that a rise was improbable — given that one of the points of quantitative easing in the US was precisely to weaken the dollar.

歷史上有許多例子支持悲觀者的看法。數年前，許多新興市場企業無視歷史教訓，大量借入廉價美元，即便它們缺少美元收入。它們認爲，鑑於美國量化寬鬆的一個用意正是壓低美元匯率，美元不可能上漲。

But now that the US appears to be moving (however reluctantly) to raise rates, while the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank continue on the path of aggressive monetary easing, the euro and yen have dropped against the greenback, as have the currencies of virtually every emerging market. The notable exception to the general pattern, of course, is the Chinese renminbi, or yuan, (which is also an exception to Mr Jen’s generalisation that now is the time to sell four letter currencies). Today, many market participants assume the dollar will strengthen further, the euro and yen will continue to weaken and the Chinese will inevitably devalue their currency.

但現在美國似乎正朝着加息的方向靠近（無論多麼不情願），同時日本央行(BOJ)和歐洲央行(ECB)繼續在量化寬鬆的道路上闊步前進，爲此歐元和日元兌美元匯率已經下跌，而幾乎所有新興市場的貨幣也是如此。當然，人民幣是個明顯例外。如今，許多市場參與者認爲，美元將進一步上漲，歐元和日元將繼續下跌，而中國人將不可避免地讓他們的貨幣貶值。

But neither the dollar nor the renminbi may fulfil those widespread expectations. Among those who think the dollar is at its cyclical peak is David Bloom, the chief currency strategist of HSBC, who notes that the dollar is already up 40 per cent since its 2011 low, a rise that way exceeds its average 20 per cent move against other currencies.

但無論是美元還是人民幣都可能不會滿足那些普遍預期。匯豐(HSBC)首席外匯策略師戴維•布盧姆(David Bloom)等一些人就認爲，美元已處於週期的頂部。布盧姆指出，美元自2011年低點以來上漲了40%，這已經遠遠超過了它對其他貨幣平均20%的漲幅。

“We are in the last throes of the US dollar bull party,” he warns. “Time to leave.”

布盧姆警告道：“我們處於美元上漲盛宴的最後陣痛階段。是時候離開了。”

Mr Bloom adds that recent macro data in the US fall short of expectations; that the US government is likely to resist further appreciation because of its impact on everything from corporate earnings to exports, and that market positioning suggests the dollar is overbought. Moreover, he points out the pattern is that the dollar rises on talk of rate increases but does not move further up when the Fed actually embarks on rate rises.

布盧姆補充稱，美國最近發佈的宏觀經濟數據不如預期；美國政府可能不願讓美元進一步升值，因爲這會對企業利潤、出口等各個領域造成影響，而且市場持倉情況表明美元已經超買。此外，他還指出，美元往往會因加息傳言而上漲，但是當美聯儲(Fed)真的開始加息時，美元不會進一步上漲。

It is equally probable that the markets are wrong on China looking for a weaker currency.

同樣，市場對中國尋求人民幣貶值的判斷也有可能是錯誤的。

“China is the great exception,” notes Chen Long of Gave Kal Dragonomics, a research boutique, in a recent piece entitled “Don’t Bet on a Renminbi Depreciation.” That is partly because Beijing is not pursuing the conventional Asian mercantilist policy of driving down its currency to support exports in a zero sum game.

研究機構龍洲經訊(Gave Kal Dragonomics)的陳龍在最近發表的一篇名爲《別押注人民幣貶值》(Don’t Bet on a Renminbi Depreciation)的文章中指出，“中國是一大例外”。其中一個原因是，北京方面目前沒有奉行亞洲傳統的重商主義政策，即不玩壓低本幣匯率以支持出口的零和遊戲。

It is true, of course, that the growth of debt in China has been vast and that a large part of it is dollar denominated. Cross-border claims on all Chinese borrowers rose almost 40 per cent from September 2013 to September 2014. Chinese non-renminbi denominated corporate debt has gone from $270bn in 2008 to $983bn in 2014, according to data from Morgan Stanley. (Of total debt in China, more than a quarter is in US dollars.) That is a constraint, but the main argument against more than a slight depreciation of the currency is not about the debt, or even about capital outflows, which the government frets about and monitors carefully, despite its $3.8tn in reserves.

當然，中國債務大規模增長而且很大一部分債務以美元計價，這是事實。從2013年9月到2014年9月，中國各類借款人的跨境負債總額增長了近40%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的數據顯示，2014年，中國非人民幣計價的企業債務從2008年的2700億美元增加至9830億美元（在中國的全部債務中，逾四分之一是以美元計價的）。這是一個約束因素，但人民幣不會大幅貶值的主要理由與債務無關，甚至也與資本外流無關——儘管中國擁有3.8萬億美元外匯儲備，但中國政府仍對資本外流感到擔心，並對此密切監控。

In fact, China is playing a longer and a different game. Unlike most of its competitors it is relying on moving up the value added curve, developing innovative technology and leading edge research for its competitive edge. It is moving away from its (and its Asian neighbours’) export-driven manufacturing model and the quick fix of depreciation. It is also moving toward a more domestic demand-driven economy. More importantly, it has determined that a stable to gradually appreciating currency is the best approach of eventually challenging the US dollar’s hegemony as the world’s only reserve currency.

實際上，中國有着更爲長遠和截然不同的謀劃。與大多數競爭對手不同，中國目前依賴於提升自身在價值鏈上的位置、發展創新科技，以及領導前沿研究以獲得競爭優勢。中國正轉變自己（及其亞洲鄰國）那種出口主導型的製造模式，也不再通過貶值來快速解決問題。同時，中國經濟增長正在逐步轉向更多地依靠內需推動。更重要的是，中國斷定，人民幣穩定、漸進升值是最終挑戰美元作爲全球唯一儲備貨幣的霸主地位的最佳方式。

There are lots of question marks about the probability of that happening outside China. But inside, there is a lot more certainty.

中國以外的地區對出現這一結果的可能性存在許多疑問，但中國國內對這一點要確定得多。