投資者對人民幣貶值恐慌過度

In December $108bn left China, with capital outflows marking an all-time Monthly record. After adjusting for changing foreign exchange values, the outflow was an even more massive $126bn. China’s reserves have fallen about $700bn since the June 2014 peak of $3.99tn, the first annual decline.

去年12月，有1080億美元的資金從中國流出，刷新單月資本外流的最高紀錄。在根據外匯價值變動進行調整後，外流規模更是達到了1260億美元之多。自2014年6月達到3.99萬億美元的峯值後，中國的外匯儲備減少了約7000億美元。中國外儲首次出現年度下降。

Transitions are always dangerous times, and China’s shift to a more market-based forex regime seems particularly fraught. The tension has been seen in the increasingly wide gap — nearly a full percentage point before it converged abruptly yesterday — between the controlled onshore rate and the more market-determined offshore rate in centres such as Hong Kong (where renminbi deposits are down below 10 per cent of total deposits).

過渡期總是危險的，中國轉向更多由市場決定的匯率機制的過程似乎尤其令人擔心。受控的在岸人民幣匯率與香港（其人民幣存款佔總存款比例已降至10%以下）等離岸人民幣中心更多由市場決定的離岸人民幣匯率的價差日益擴大——一度接近一個百分點，然後在週二突然收斂——就透露出了這種緊張氣氛。

Concerns about the direction of China’s currency are understandable. The potential ripple effects of any plunge in the renminbi are significant, both for emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, and for developed markets.

對人民幣走向的擔憂是可以理解的。人民幣一旦暴跌，潛在的連鎖反應將相當大，不管是對亞洲和拉美的新興市場還是對發達市場來說。

The central bank’s efforts to orchestrate an orderly and measured decline have probably already diminished Beijing’s buying of US Treasuries, and led to lower orders for US construction equipment and German cars. On a macroeconomic level, a weaker renminbi means deflationary forces globally will be more virulent, with the competitiveness of other markets undercut.

中國央行引導人民幣有序、平穩貶值的努力，很可能減少了中國對美國國債的購買，並導致對美國建築設備、德國汽車等海外產品的進口減少。在宏觀經濟層面上，人民幣走弱意味着全球通縮壓力變得更爲危險，其他市場的競爭力被削弱。

Yet the panic is probably overdone, and a strong case can be made that the fall will be limited. Yes, the renminbi has started the year by weakening against a mostly strengthening US dollar, but it has suffered less against a trade-weighted basket.

然而，這種恐慌情緒很可能過頭了。可以用一個強有力的論據來說明人民幣下跌將是有限的。的確，人民幣在今年開年後相對於基本上走強的美元下跌，但相對於貿易加權一籃子貨幣，人民幣跌幅較小。

In recent years the redback has moved in tandem with the greenback as the latter has risen. Indeed just before the renminbi’s 1.5 per cent drop against the dollar last week analysts at Lombard Street Research in London estimated that it was 10 to 15 per cent overvalued.

近年來，人民幣隨同升值的美元一同上漲。事實上，在上週人民幣對美元匯率下降1.5%之前，倫敦朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的分析師們就指出人民幣被高估了10%到15%。

A few months ago, at its peak, the renminbi had strengthened 50 per cent against the yen. In recent days it has lost value against the Japanese currency. But that decline is nothing when contrasted with the appreciation of the past decade. The People’s Bank is justified in trying to move to a renminbi measured against a basket of currencies of its trading partners rather than against a dollar whose value is rising.

幾個月前，人民幣相對日元最高升值了50%。近些日子人民幣相對於日元有所貶值。但與過去10年人民幣升值的幅度相比，這種貶值根本不值一提。中國央行試圖將人民幣匯率的參考指標從不斷升值的美元，轉爲由貿易伙伴國貨幣組成的一籃子貨幣，此舉合情合理。

When China was growing more vigorously, the linkage to the US dollar mattered less. But as the mainland economy slows and with the US expected to strengthen, that nexus has become more of a challenge. The US is tightening monetary policy while China needs to ease. In real terms interest rates are way too high, and the burden of debt servicing for many cash-strapped enterprises is too heavy.

在中國較強勁增長的時候，人民幣與美元的聯繫沒有那麼重要。但隨着中國內地經濟放緩和美國經濟有望走強，這種聯繫更多成了一種挑戰。美國正在緊縮貨幣政策，而中國需要放鬆貨幣政策。實際利率太高，許多資金緊張的企業償債負擔過重。

Moreover, precisely because interest rates were so high and dollar rates that much more attractive to borrowers, Chinese enterprises borrowed in the offshore dollar market. They are now prudently repaying that debt. In part this is the reversal of a carry trade that was profitable just two years ago — borrowing cheap dollars and putting them into more lucrative renminbi assets was widely regarded as a one-way, riskless trade.

此外，正是因爲利率過高以及美元利率對借款者更具吸引力，中國企業之前在離岸美元市場借貸。他們現在很明智地在償還這些債務。這有一部分是兩年前還有利可圖的套利交易的逆轉——借入廉價美元，然後用這些美元買入更有利可圖的人民幣資產，這被普遍認爲是一種單邊的無風險交易。

But on top of that, every year citizens are allowed to buy $50,000 in foreign exchange. So since the new year many have done just that.

但除此之外，中國公民每年被允許購買5萬美元的外匯。因此自新年以來，許多人都在購買外匯。

The renminbi is not a real international currency yet. After the new Argentine government lifted capital controls last month, leading to a fall in the peso, officials said they were selling their renminbi reserves. That was not because they expected the Chinese currency to plunge but because central bank intervention is still all about the dollar — the only true reserve currency.

人民幣還不是真正的國際貨幣。舉個例子，在阿根廷新政府上月解除資本管制、從而導致比索下跌之後，官員們表示，他們正在賣掉人民幣儲備。這不是因爲他們預計人民幣將會暴跌，而是因爲央行干預仍然全都與美元有關——美元是唯一真正的儲備貨幣。

But that will change in a few years, which is why the IMF has decided to include the renminbi in its special drawing rights, its international reserve asset. In time the renminbi will become a real international currency, with a heft commensurate with China’s weight in international trade. That means it will be a bigger part of international monetary arrangements, and its value will be underpinned by central banks.

但若干年後這種情況將會改變，這正是國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)決定將人民幣納入其國際儲備資產——特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子的原因。有朝一日，人民幣將成爲真正的國際貨幣，產生與中國在國際貿易中的地位相稱的影響力。這意味着人民幣將在國際貨幣安排中擁有更大分量，其價值將得到各國央行的支持。

So while the renminbi is no longer a one-way upward bet, beware of being whipsawed in the year of the monkey.

因此，儘管投資者不再押注人民幣單邊升值，但要當心在猴年遭受雙重損失。