人民幣貶值未阻止中國股市上揚

China’s renminbi slump has companies and individuals alike scrambling to move capital overseas, but it has not damped the enthusiasm of China’s equity investors.

人民幣貶值促使企業和個人爭相將資本轉移至海外，卻並未澆滅中國股票投資者的熱情。

The Shanghai Composite, which tracks stocks on the mainland’s biggest exchange, has been gradually rising since May. That is the opposite of what happened in August 2015 after China’s surprise renminbi devaluation caused an already falling market to drop further.

追蹤中國內地最大股票交易所的上證綜指(Shanghai Composite)自5月以來逐漸上升。這與2015年8月的情況截然相反，當時人民幣的意外貶值使原本已在下跌的市場進一步下挫。

That episode seems to be a distant memory for investors, who say the central bank is getting better at communicating policy moves. Now the renminbi’s reference rate is determined by the previous day’s currency market movements.

對投資者而言，那一幕似乎已成爲遙遠的記憶，他們表示中國央行正在改善政策舉動的溝通。現在人民幣的參考匯率是由前一天的匯市走勢決定的。

“The domestic stock market rises when the renminbi goes down, which means equity investors don’t think lower renminbi is bad,” said Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based consultancy.

“國內股市在人民幣下跌的時候上揚，這意味着股票投資者並不認爲人民幣貶值是壞事，”北京諮詢機構龍洲經訊(Gavekal Dragonomics)的陳龍說。

The positive half-year for the stock market is mainly fuelled by a lack of alternative investment options as domestic real estate has cooled, according to Chen Xingdong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas in Beijing.

北京的法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)中國區首席經濟學家陳興動表示，股市在這半年間走勢良好，主要推動因素是隨着國內房地產市場降溫，人們缺乏其他投資選擇。

“Last year stock investors moved their money into property. But that market’s tightly regulated now, and so money has flooded back into the stock market,” he said.

“去年股票投資者將資金轉入房地產，但房地產市場目前受到嚴格監管，因此資金迴流到股市中，”他說。

The current appetite of investors for stocks is a “classic short-term versus long-term response”, according to Chris Powers of Z-Ben Advisors, a Shanghai-based consultancy. “People can see in the short term that a falling renminbi may benefit exporters and aid monetary easing efforts.”

當前投資者對股票的興趣是一種“經典的短期與長期迴應之間的權衡”，總部位於上海的澤奔諮詢(Z-Ben Advisors)的克里斯.鮑爾斯(Chris Powers)說，“人們可以看到，短期內人民幣下跌可能惠及出口商，並有助於貨幣寬鬆的努力。”

The enthusiasm comes despite a weaker renminbi hindering the Chinese government’s goals of internationalising its currency and rebalancing the economy towards consumption, he suggested.

他表示，儘管人民幣走弱阻礙了中國政府實現兩個目標——人民幣國際化和推動經濟朝着消費拉動型再平衡，但投資者的熱情依舊。

Meanwhile China’s chances of being included in the highly desirable MSCI index are even lower now that Beijing plans stricter capital controls to stem the renminbi’s further decline.

同時，由於中國政府計劃利用更嚴格的資本管制來遏止人民幣的進一步下跌，中國被納入受高度推崇的MSCI明晟新興市場指數(MSCI Emerging Markets index)的可能性現在變得更低。

China’s leadership has been pushing to get Chinese stocks into the index, which would mean funds would automatically send a wave of capital in Shanghai’s direction.

中國領導層一直在推動中國股市被納入該指數，如果被納入，來自基金的一股資金洪流將自動涌向上海A股市場。