人民幣匯率將參考一籃子貨幣 或繼續貶值

HONG KONG — China’s central bank said Friday night that it would start tracking the value of the country’s currency against a basket of many other currencies and not just the dollar. The Move is likely to reignite speculation about the possibility of another devaluation by Beijing and could fan trade tensions.

香港——中國央行上週五晚表示，將開始跟蹤人民幣與一籃子其他主要貨幣的匯率，而不僅僅是與美元的匯率。此舉預計將再次引發人們對北京讓人民幣貶值的可能性的猜測，並可能導致貿易關係緊張。

The People’s Bank of China posted a commentary on its website saying it would calculate and release the value of the renminbi based on a basket of foreign currencies, after many years of relying overwhelmingly on calculations based on the renminbi’s value in dollars.

中國人民銀行在其網站上發的一篇評論文章中說，將發佈參考一籃子貨幣計算的人民幣匯率。多年來，人民幣價值的計算基本上是以美元爲參考的。

The Chinese central bank did not say when it might make such a move, which could rock global financial markets.

中國央行並未透露此舉可能何時開始，這樣做有可能導致全球金融市場動盪。

The last change in the central bank’s method for determining the renminbi’s exchange rate occurred in August and accompanied an immediate 2 percent devaluation. That was followed by a further slide in the renminbi in the next couple of days of trading, before the Chinese central bank intervened heavily to keep the currency from tumbling further.

央行最近一次改變其確定人民幣匯率的方法是今年8月，隨後立刻發生了人民幣相對美元的2％貶值。在那之後的幾個交易日，人民幣對美元的匯率進一步下滑，後來央行進行了大量干預，以保持人民幣匯率不再進一步下跌。

With the American economy expanding while Europe, Japan and many emerging markets languish, the dollar has rallied strongly for the last couple of years, and many economists expect that to continue. Basing the renminbi’s value on a group of currencies would cause it to fall against the dollar if the dollar’s strength persisted in the coming months.

隨着美國經濟增長速度提高，而歐洲、日本及許多新興市場的經濟繼續停滯不前，美元在過去的幾年中出現強勁反彈，許多經濟學家預測這一趨勢將繼續下去。如果美元在未來幾個月持續走強的話，參考一籃子貨幣的人民幣價值會導致人民幣兌美元的匯率下跌。

“Managing the renminbi’s value relative to a basket of currencies rather than just the U.S. dollar would allow China to make a smoother transition to a more market-determined exchange rate,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist who used to be the head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. “One consequence of such a shift, given the prospects of further dollar strength in the coming months, would be a further depreciation of the renminbi relative to the dollar.”

“參考一籃子貨幣、而不僅僅參考美元來管理人民幣的價值，將會讓中國過渡到更多地由市場決定匯率的過程更加平緩，”康奈爾大學(Cornell University)經濟學家埃斯瓦爾·普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)說，他曾擔任國際貨幣基金組織中國部負責人。“鑑於美元在未來幾個月進一步走強的前景，這種變化的後果之一，將是人民幣相對美元的進一步貶值。”

Mr. Prasad added that “this would certainly be helpful for the Chinese economy, although at best marginally, at a time of slowing growth and weak exports.”

普拉薩德補充說：“這肯定對中國經濟有所幫助，但是，在經濟增長放緩、出口疲軟時期，這種幫助最多也是微乎其微的。”

The possibility of further devaluation of the renminbi also complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision next week on whether to begin raising short-term interest rates. Janet L. Yellen, the Fed’s chairwoman, and other top Fed officials strongly hinted last week that they would start pushing rates higher, anticipating that the general price level in the United States would start rising if they left rates near zero.

人民幣進一步貶值的可能性也讓美聯儲下週是否開始提高短期利率的決定複雜化。美聯儲主席珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)及美聯儲其他高級官員上週強烈暗示，他們將開始提高利率，他們預計，如果利率維持在接近零的水平，美國的整體物價水平將開始上升。

But a weaker renminbi relative to the dollar would make Chinese goods even cheaper in the United States, helping to forestall inflation. Prices in the United States for imported goods have fallen nearly 10 percent in the last year, although partly because of falling commodity prices.

但是，人民幣相對美元走弱將使中國商品在美國變得更加便宜，這有助於防止通貨膨脹。去年，美國進口商品的價格下跌了近10％，雖然部分原因是大宗商品價格的下跌。

The People’s Bank, China’s central bank, clearly pegged the renminbi to the dollar until July 2005. It then allowed a one-time appreciation in the renminbi and said it was starting to peg the renminbi to a basket of currencies. But many statistical analyses by Western economists have shown that the People’s Bank essentially adopted a program of very gradual appreciation to the dollar, with the renminbi showing little correlation with other currencies.

中國人民銀行是中國的中央銀行，它曾明確地讓人民幣與美元固定掛鉤，直到2005年7月。那時，央行曾讓人民幣與美元的匯率一次性升值，並表示開始讓人民幣與一籃子貨幣掛鉤。但是，西方經濟學家做的大量統計分析表明，中國人民銀行基本上採取了一種讓人民幣兌美元的匯率逐漸升值的做法，人民幣的走向與其他貨幣的走向幾乎沒有相關性。

As the dollar has strengthened, and as wages in China have risen by double-digit annual percentages, China has found its export competitiveness beginning to weaken. The People’s Bank said in its statement on Friday evening that the renminbi appreciated 2.9 percent against the central bank’s new index during the first 11 months of this year, even as the renminbi weakened slightly against the dollar.

隨着美元的走強，也隨着中國的工資以兩位數的年度百分比上升，中國發現自己的出口競爭力開始減弱。中國人民銀行週五晚發佈的評論文章稱，從新發布的指數來看，人民幣在今年頭11個月裏與去年年底相比升值了2.9％，儘管人民幣相對美元有小幅貶值。

As a result, the central bank said, the renminbi “is still a strong currency.”

央行表示，其結果是，人民幣“仍屬強勢貨幣”。

The International Monetary Fund last week added the renminbi to the fund’s special drawing rights, essentially anointing it as one of the world’s leading reserve currencies alongside the dollar, euro, yen and British pound. China had intervened heavily to preserve the value of the renminbi through its many months of campaigning for accession to the special drawing rights, and the I.M.F.’s decision may have reduced the need for Beijing to continue intervening.

國際貨幣基金組織上週批准人民幣加入特別提款權（簡稱SDR）貨幣籃子，基本上把人民幣認定爲與美元、歐元、日元和英鎊具有同等地位的世界主要儲備貨幣之一。中國爲獲得特別提款權進行了好幾個月的努力，其間曾大力介入市場以維持人民幣的價值，國際貨幣基金組織的決定也許減少了北京繼續介入的必要性。

China has the world’s largest overall trade surplus and consistently runs extremely large trade surpluses with the United States, exporting $4 worth of goods to the United States for every $1 of American goods that it imports. The Commerce Department released trade data last week showing that the American trade deficit in goods rose to $306 billion in the first 10 months of this year, compared with $282.9 billion during the same period last year.

中國擁有世界上最大的總體貿易順差，並長期與美國保持巨大的貿易順差，中國從美國每進口價值一美元的商品，就向美國出口價值四美元的商品。美國商務部上週公佈的貿易數據顯示，美國與中國的商品貿易赤字在今年頭10個月已達到3060億美元，而去年同期的商品貿易赤字爲2829億美元。

That was roughly half the overall American trade deficit in goods. American banks and other service providers have been asking Beijing for greater regulatory permission to do business in mainland China, which could someday begin to narrow the deficit.

這大約是美國總體商品貿易逆差的一半。美國的銀行及其他服務供應商一直在要求北京放寬管理許可，讓它們能在中國大陸開展業務，也許有朝一日這可以開始縮小美中貿易赤字。

China needs to run very large trade surpluses because it has considerable overcapacity in many industrial sectors, and domestic consumption has been growing but not fast enough. Investment in China has been weak.

中國需要有非常大的貿易順差，因爲中國在許多工業領域有相當大的產能過剩，儘管國內消費一直在增長，但增長的速度還不夠快。中國的投資則在減少。

Many Chinese families and companies have also been moving huge sums of money overseas, often to invest in real estate. This has tended to weaken the renminbi and has made China more dependent on large trade surpluses to bring in foreign currency and balance the outflow of investment.

許多中國家庭和企業也一直在向海外轉移巨資，通常是用投資房地產的方式。這往往會讓人民幣貶值，同時讓中國更加依賴於鉅額貿易順差所帶來的外匯，以平衡投資的外流。