人民幣貶值潛在連鎖反應令人擔憂
China’s decision to push the value of its currency lower has opened a new front of worry for global investors: a potential wave of currency devaluations among the so-called Asian tigers — South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
中國將人民幣進一步貶值，使全球投資者陷入新一輪擔憂：這有可能會引發韓國、新加坡和臺灣等亞洲四小龍國家的貨幣也出現貶值。
Such an outcome, a number of foreign exchange specialists say, would put a further damper on global growth expectations, which already are being revised downward as China’s once-booming economy retrenches.
不少外匯專家表示，這樣的結果會讓全球增長預期進一步降低。隨着一度繁榮的中國經濟開始放緩，這一預期之前就已被下調。
The dollar’s strong run recently — together with the plunge in the price of oil and other commodities — has damaged fragile emerging-market economies like Brazil, Turkey and South Africa; the dollar has risen 130 percent against the Brazilian real and the South African rand since mid-2011.
最近美元走強，再加上石油和其他大宗商品價格大跌，使得巴西、土耳其和南非等脆弱的新興市場經濟遭創；美元對巴西雷亞爾和南非蘭特的匯率相比於2011年中已經上漲了130%。
The currencies of fast-growing Asian countries, including India, have largely been insulated, thanks to their better-performing economies and their ability to stockpile large foreign currency reserve positions.
不過，包括印度在內的經濟增長速度比較快的亞洲國家，大體上免於受到影響，因爲它們的經濟表現更好，而且有能力儲備大量外匯。
But having a strong currency at a time when manufacturing competitors like Japan and China have weaker currencies leads to a sharp fall in exports, which have been the economic lifeblood of these countries for decades.
但是，美元在日本和中國等製造業競爭對手的貨幣較爲疲軟之時走強，導致美國出口劇降。而出口在過去幾十年一直是這些國家的經濟命脈。
“These countries have some of the most overvalued exchange rates on the planet,” said Julian Brigden of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, an independent research firm based in Vail, Colo., that advises large money management firms on global investment themes.
“這些國家匯率被高估的程度是全球數得上的，”朱利安·布里格登(Julian Brigden)說道。他來自總部位於科羅拉多州韋爾的獨立調研機構宏觀經濟情報(Macro Intelligence 2 Partners)，該公司給大型資產管理公司提供有關全球投資方面的諮詢建議。
When economies have high exchange rates, their exports tend to lose market share compared with countries with cheaper currencies. And when that happens, countries that depend on foreign trade will frequently take steps to push their currencies lower.
當一個國家的匯率增高時，其出口相比於匯率較低的國家，會失去一些市場份額。出現這種情況時，依賴對外貿易的國家往往會採取措施，使自己的國家貨幣貶值。
Echoing these fears, the finance minister of Mexico, Luis Videgaray, warned on Thursday that the Chinese currency actions could lead to a new round of competitive devaluations.
與這些擔憂相呼應的是，墨西哥財政部長路易斯·比德加賴(Luis Videgaray)週四發出警告，表示人民幣貶值可能會導致新一輪的競爭性貨幣貶值。
The fear is that a currency war in Southeast Asia — where the Asian financial crisis erupted in 1997 — could result in lower growth and add to the already substantial concerns about the global economy this year and next.
這種擔憂在於，如果1997年亞洲金融危機的爆發地東南亞發生貨幣戰爭，可能會導致經濟增長更加緩慢，使業界本就存在的對全球經濟在今明兩年發展形勢的擔憂進一步加劇。
Earlier this week, the World Bank lowered its estimate for global growth to 2.9 percent from 3.3 percent, with expectations for just about all major economies being revised downward.
本週早些時候，世界銀行(World Bank)將它對全球增長率的預估值從3.3%降爲2.9%，並基本上將它對全球幾乎所有主要經濟體的經濟預測都有所下調。
Already, global money managers have begun to pull money out of some of these Asian markets.
在全球進行資本配置的基金經理們已經開始將資金撤出一些亞洲市場。
The Korean won and the Singapore dollar are down 5 percent, while the Taiwan dollar has lost 7 percent over the last six months. Even in India, perhaps the most popular emerging market among global investors, the currency has given ground, about 7 percent, against the United States dollar.
在過去的六個月裏，韓元和新加坡元匯率降低5%，臺幣貶值7%。就連印度這個全球投資者眼中最受歡迎的新興市場，其貨幣對美元的匯率也下跌了7%。
Underpinning the fears about a currency war have been the disappointing export figures from the region.
這個地區令人失望的出口數據，也是加劇出現貨幣戰爭這種擔憂的一個因素。
For example, Korean exports fell 14 percent in December compared with the same month in 2014. For the year, exports shrank 8 percent — the worst result for the country since the global financial crisis in 2009.
比如，韓國2015年12月的出口額相比於2014年同期下降了14%。2015年整年則比去年縮水8%，是2009年發生全球金融危機以來該國出口業績最差的一年。
In Taiwan, government officials say they expect exports for last year to have fallen 10 percent; and in Singapore, the manufacturing sector at the heart of the country’s export-based model slumped 6 percent in the most recent quarter.
臺灣政府官員表示，他們預計臺灣去年的出口額下降了10%；在新加坡，作爲該國出口型經濟核心的製造業在最近一個季度驟降6%。
These export figures are disturbing because they reflect that something deeper is ailing the global economy than simply a slowing China that is buying less oil from Nigeria, iron ore from Brazil or copper from Chile.
這些出口數據讓人不安，是因爲它們反映出，給全球經濟帶來麻煩的是一些更深層次的問題，而不只是中國經濟增速放緩，以及隨之而來的對尼日利亞的石油、巴西的鐵礦石或智利的銅的需求減少。
Strong currencies in the Asian tiger countries have made their high-end electronic products, like Samsung phones from South Korea and computer parts from Taiwan, more expensive in Europe and the United States, their biggest markets.
強勢貨幣使亞洲四小龍製造的高端電子產品，如韓國的三星手機和臺灣的計算機零件，在其最大的市場歐洲和美國變得更加昂貴。
And with China, their main export competitor, expected to to let the renminbi weaken further, these countries will face further pressure to let their currencies fall.
隨着它們的主要出口競爭對手中國將其貨幣進一步貶值，這些國家有可能面臨更多壓力，也不得不貶值其貨幣。
The sudden export drop-off for manufacturing powerhouses like South Korea and Singapore troubles analysts who see it as a sign that the slowdown in the global economy is worse than people expect.
韓國和新加坡等製造業強國出口銳減，讓一些分析人士感到擔憂，因爲他們認爲，這代表着全球經濟衰退的程度比人們料想的更糟。
“I expect these currencies to fall by another 20 or 30 percent,” said Raoul Pal, an independent financial analyst and the founder of Real Vision TV, a media venture where sophisticated investors discuss their views on the market. “These export figures are a big deal — it’s a huge shrinkage in the dollar-based economy, as not enough people are buying goods.”
“我預計這些國家的貨幣還會進一步貶值20%到30%，”媒體平臺Real Vision TV的創始人、獨立金融分析師拉烏爾·帕爾(Raoul Pal)說道。“這些出口數據不容小覷——在以美元爲基礎的經濟體裏，這是規模很大的萎縮，說明沒有足夠多的人在購買商品。”在其媒體平臺上，有許多富有經驗的投資者會就市場行情發表自己的觀點。
For quite some time, Mr. Pal has been promoting an investment thesis that the relentless rise of the dollar — since mid-2011, the dollar is up 35 percent against a broad basket of currencies — will have a deflationary effect on the global economy as export-driven economies enter into a series of competitive devaluations to protect crucial export sectors.
在相當長的一段時間裏，帕爾一直在推廣一種投資理念，即美元持續走高——自2011年中至今，美元對一籃子貨幣的匯率上漲了35%——將給全球經濟帶來通貨緊縮影響，因爲出口導向型經濟會爲保護對本國至關重要的出口行業而競相貶值其貨幣。
“This is not just a commodity story,” he said. “It’s a global trade story.”
“不是隻有大宗商品價格會受到影響，”他說。“全球貿易都會因之改變。”
Exchange-rate volatility in this part of the world will not take the heat off other weak currencies. In addition to usual examples like Turkey, Brazil and South Africa, investors expect commodity exporters like Indonesia, Chile and Colombia to take a big hit, as the prices for their products continue to fall.
這一地區匯率不穩，並不會減輕其他弱勢貨幣的壓力。投資者預計，隨着大宗商品價格繼續下降，除了人們比較熟悉的土耳其、巴西和南非等，印度尼西亞、智利和哥倫比亞等大宗商品出口國也會受到嚴重影響。
The final frontier in this respect would be the pegged currencies in the Middle East, especially the Saudi Arabian riyal, which is tightly linked to the dollar.
能夠抵禦這種衝擊的最後一道防線將是中東地區的掛鉤貨幣，尤其是與美元聯繫緊密的沙特阿拉伯貨幣里亞爾。
Although Saudi Arabia has been running budget deficits of close to 20 percent of gross domestic product because of the fall in oil prices, it still has a war chest of $635 billion in foreign exchange reserves that it can tap to defend the riyal.
儘管因爲油價下跌，沙特阿拉伯的預算赤字一直高達國內生產總值的大約20%，但它還有6350億美元的外匯儲備，足以對里亞爾的匯率形成支撐。
The other problem with downward trending currencies in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore is that these countries, like just about all emerging market economies, have taken advantage of a rock-bottom interest rate environment to issue billions of dollars in dollar-denominated corporate debt to finance capital investments.
韓國、臺灣和新加坡貨幣貶值趨勢的另一個問題是，就像幾乎所有新興市場一樣，這些經濟體也利用觸底的利率環境，發行了價值數十億美元的以美元計價的企業債券，以便給資本投資提供資金。
Foreign investors were attracted to the high yields and especially the stable currencies and bought them in huge quantities. Now, with the currencies starting to wobble, dollar-based investors have less incentive to hold on to them, and they will do what they have been doing with their Brazilian, Turkish and South African bonds — get rid of them as quickly as possible.
境外投資者受其高收益率吸引，他們尤其看好這些貨幣的穩定性，於是大量買入。如今，隨着這些貨幣匯率出現波動，以美元進行投資的投資者就相對不那麼有動力繼續持有這些債券，如同他們針對巴西、土耳其和南非債券所做的那樣，他們會盡快將這些債券出手。
“There is a lot of underlying investor exposure in these markets,” said Mr. Brigden, the independent research analyst. “I think if things continue to get worse, we are going to move to liquidation stage.”
“有很多底層投資者在這些市場持有大量資產，”上述獨立調研機構分析師布里格登說。“我認爲，如果情況繼續惡化，我們可能就要進入清算階段了。”
