貿易戰暫時不打了,但中美貿易前景仍不明朗

WASHINGTON — China will increase its purchase of American goods and services in order to reduce the multibillion-dollar trade imbalance with the United States, the two countries said in a joint statement Saturday.

華盛頓——中美兩國在週六的聯合聲明中表示，中國將購買更多美國商品和服務，以減少與美國數千億美元的貿易不平衡。

How much the imbalance will be reduced remains to be seen.

這種不平衡會減少多少還有待觀察。

Trump administration officials had said during negotiations this week that China was prepared to make up to $200 billion in additional purchases. Notably absent from Saturday’s announcement were any dollar figures — or a sense of the scale of the agreed-upon increases.

在本週的談判期間，特朗普政府的官員稱中國準備多購買2000億美元（約合1.3萬億元人民幣）的商品和服務。值得注意的是，週六的聲明中沒有出現任何金額——或是商定的增加規模。

The White House said that China had committed to buying more agriculture and energy exports, but noted that American officials would at some point go to China to work out the details of their agreement.

白宮稱，中國承諾購買更多農業和能源出口商品，但同時指出美國官員將在某個時候前往中國，制定協議細節。

“To meet the growing consumption needs of the Chinese people and the need for high-quality economic development, China will significantly increase purchases of United States goods and services,” said the statement. “This will help support growth and employment in the United States.”

“爲滿足中國人民不斷增長的消費需求和促進高質量經濟發展，中方將大量增加自美購買商品和服務，”聲明寫道。“這將有助於支持美國的增長和就業。”

The Trump administration has taken a hard line against China since the president took office, and the United States has made a series of moves focused on trade, including threatening tariffs on Chinese products and restrictions on Chinese investment flowing into the country. Among the claims that the United States has made is that Beijing has unfairly stolen intellectual property, especially as China pushes ahead in developing the next generation of wireless technology known as 5G.

自特朗普總統上臺以來，政府對中國立場強硬。美國以貿易爲重點採取了一系列措施，包括威脅對中國的產品徵收關稅和限制中國的投資流入中國。美國提出的說法之一是北京不公平地竊取知識產權，尤其是在中國大力發展下一代無線技術5G的時候。

Recently, both countries have shown a willingness to compromise to reduce trade tensions, and Chinese officials came to Washington this week for a series of talks with various cabinet officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

最近，兩國都表現出願意做出讓步，以緩和貿易緊張關係。本週，中方官員來到華盛頓，與包括財政部長史蒂文·努欽(Steven Mnuchin)在內的多名內閣官員舉行了一系列會談。

The announcement Saturday made no reference to whether the Trump administration would walk away from tariffs imposed this year on roughly $50 billion of Chinese imports. But Liu He, an economic adviser who led the negotiations for China, suggested that both sides would stop recently imposed tariffs, according to China’s Xinhua News Agency.

週六的聲明沒有提到特朗普政府是否會取消今年對大約500億美元的中國進口商品徵收關稅。但據中國的新華社 (Xinhua News Agency)報道，領導中方談判的經濟顧問劉鶴表示，雙方將停止徵收最近實施的關稅。

Scott Paul, the president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, an industry group, said that judging from the announcement, the talks didn’t appear to have moved American businesses toward a level playing field in China.

行業組織美國製造業聯盟(Alliance for American Manufacturing)主席斯科特·保羅(Scott Paul)說，從聲明來看，談判似乎未能讓美國企業在中國獲得公平的競爭環境。

“Sometimes it’s better to walk away from the negotiating table to reinforce the point to China that our resolve is strong,” he said. “We need more details, but I’m not encouraged by the direction these talks are headed.”

“有時候，最好是離開談判桌，向中國強調一點，我們決心堅定，”他說。“我們需要更多細節，但這些談判的方向沒有讓我感到鼓舞。”

As the negotiations this week wound down, mixed signals emerged about the progress the two sides had made.

隨着本週的談判結束，有關雙方所獲進展的信號有喜有憂。

“They are meeting many of our demands,” Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, told reporters Friday as he discussed the possibility of “at least $200 billion” in additional purchases.

“他們會滿足我們的很多要求，”國家經濟委員會(National Economic Council)主席拉里·庫德洛(Larry Kudlow)上週五對記者說。他談到了中國多購買“至少2000億美元”商品的可能性。

Chinese media contested the concessions. The Foreign Ministry denied Friday that it had offered to reduce its trade deficit with the United States by the $200 billion amount, and on Saturday the state-run People’s Daily, considered a mouthpiece for the Chinese government, called the reports “a misunderstanding.” The trade deficit with China reached $375.2 billion last year.

中國媒體對這些讓步提出了異議。週五，外交部否認中國已經提出要削減2000億美元規模的美國對華逆差，並且週六，官方媒體、被視爲中國政府喉舌的《人民日報》將這些報道稱爲“誤解”。去年，美國對華貿易逆差達到了3752億美元。

American officials have clashed in recent days over what to offer Beijing in return for increasing its purchases of American goods and services.

近幾天，關於該向北京提供些什麼，以換取中國增加對美國商品和服務的購買，美國官員內部起了衝突。

One issue is whether the United States should relax so-called export controls on certain products and technology, according to two people who were familiar with the negotiations but were not authorized to speak publicly about them. The controls determine where — and in what quantity — products with military applications or advanced technologies, like semiconductors that power smartphones and computers, can be exported to other countries.

據兩名熟悉談判但沒有獲得公開談論此事授權的人士表示，一個問題在於，美國是否應當放寬對特定商品及技術的所謂“出口管制”。管制措施決定着能夠應用於軍事或尖端技術的商品——比如能夠爲智能手機和計算機提供動力的半導體——出口到他國的地點和規模。

Mr. Mnuchin, who has been leading the negotiations, has pushed for relaxing the rules in order to forestall the possibility of a trade war and secure China’s purchase of additional goods from the United States in the coming years. Mr. Mnuchin’s plan has faced stiff opposition from Defense Department officials, who fear such sales could compromise American national security, one of the people said.

一直牽頭談判的努欽在推動放寬這些法規，以預先阻止可能會發生的貿易戰，並且保證中國在未來幾年會從美國購買額外的商品。努欽的計劃面臨着來自國防部官員的堅決反對，他們擔憂這樣的商品出售可能會破壞美國國家安全，其中一人表示。

The Defense Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did the Treasury Department.

國防部和財政部均沒有立即迴應置評的請求。

Another point of contention has been whether to offer relief for ZTE, a Chinese telecom firm. The Trump administration penalized ZTE for violating American sanctions against North Korea and Iran, steps that have effectively shuttered the company’s business and put tens of thousands of Chinese jobs at risk.

另一個存在爭議的點在於是否放鬆對中國電信公司中興的制裁。特朗普政府因中興違反了美國針對朝鮮和伊朗的制裁措施而予以處罰，這些舉措導致該公司業務關閉，危及數以萬計的中國工作。

After taking a tough stance on China in recent months, President Trump has appeared open to relaxing penalties against ZTE, posting to Twitter last weekend that too many jobs had been lost.

在近幾個月來對中國採取強硬態度後，特朗普總統已經似乎對放鬆針對中興的懲罰持開放態度。上週，他在Twitter上發文表示中國已經失去了太多工作。

The comments provoked a sharp backlash from hard-liners within the administration and lawmakers across the political spectrum, who saw concessions to the Chinese on ZTE as infringing on the rule of law and potentially endangering national security.

這些評論引發了政府內部強硬派和政治各界議員的強烈反彈，他們認爲在中興一事上對中國讓步是破壞法治，可能還會危及國家安全。

Any breaks offered by the United States could backfire with economic nationalists, who have viewed the imposition of tariffs and investment restrictions against China as the fulfillment of one of Mr. Trump’s core campaign promises.

任何美國提出的放寬措施可能都會在經濟民族主義者那裏遭到抵制，他們把對中國加徵關稅及設立投資限制視爲特朗普兌現其核心競選承諾的一個舉動。

“It’s imperative that we do not back off one iota, and certainly not for more happy talk about continuing dialogue,” said Stephen K. Bannon, the president’s former chief strategist.

“我們一定要寸步不讓，而且當然不能爲了更多愉快地討論繼續對話而讓步，”總統的前首席戰略師史蒂芬·K·班農(Stephen K. Bannon)表示。