中國貿易實力助推人民幣地位

Nowhere in the global economy today is China More of a force than in the world of trade. That fact alone seems destined to propel the march of the renminbi, once considered an exotic currency, further into the mainstream.

在當今全球經濟，中國在貿易領域的實力尤其強大。這一事實本身似乎就註定會推動曾被視爲冷門貨幣的人民幣進一步躋身於主流。

China is now the largest exporter by some margin. Economists at the World Trade Organisation predict that its exports will account for more than 14 per cent of the value of goods exported around the globe by year-end, up from a little over 6 per cent a decade ago.

中國現在是遙遙領先的最大出口國。世界貿易組織(WTO)經濟學家，預測到今年年底，中國的貨物出口總值將佔到全球的14%以上，十年前這一數字僅爲6%出頭。

China is also on course to topple the US from its perch as the biggest importer, and accounted for just over 10 per cent of the value of imports around the world this year.

中國還將超越美國成爲最大進口國，今年中國的貨物進口總值佔全球的10%出頭。

China’s emergence in the past decade as the leading trading nation has expanded the role of the renminbi to such an extent that in 2013, the currency overtook the euro as the world’s second choice in trade finance after the dollar, according to Swift, the global payments house.

過去十年中國作爲主要貿易大國的崛起，極大地提高了人民幣的地位。全球支付服務提供商——環球銀行金融電信協會(SWIFT)數據顯示，2013年人民幣超越歐元，成爲全球貿易融資的第二大選擇，僅次於美元。

In Asia, the renminbi is now the leading option for commerce between China and regional partners such as South Korea. Trade payments in renminbi to China and Hong Kong now account for almost a third of transactions, says Swift, compared with just 7 per cent three years ago.

在亞洲，人民幣現在是中國與韓國等區域合作伙伴之間貿易的首選貨幣。SWIFT數據顯示，中國內地和香港現在的貿易有近三分之一以人民幣結算，而三年前僅爲7%。

The renminbi could cross a more significant symbolic threshold as the International Monetary Funds is set to go ahead with a widely anticipated decision to add the Chinese unit to its elite basket of global reserve currencies used to value its Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), currently the preserve of the British pound, the US dollar, the euro and the yen.

隨着國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)如普遍預期的那樣，決定將人民幣納入其全球儲備貨幣精英籃子，人民幣跨越了象徵意義上的更重要的門檻。IMF的貨幣籃子用於爲其特別提款權(SDR)確定價值，目前裏面的成員有英鎊、美元、歐元和日元。

Stuart Tait, global head trade for HSBC, argues that using the renminbi in trade transactions no longer seems like an exotic idea. During a recent visit to China’s Pearl River Delta, a region where many export-focused companies are based, he was struck by how much the conversation had changed. “We talked about Rmb exposure in the way you would about any currency. It wasn’t this unique frontier issue,” Mr Tait says.

匯豐(HSBC)全球貿易主管斯圖爾特泰特(Stuart Tait)認爲，人民幣用於貿易結算已不再被視爲一個奇葩想法。斯圖爾特泰特近期訪問了中國珠三角地區，那裏聚集着大量出口企業，他對人們口氣的改變留下深刻印象。他說：“我們談論人民幣的敞口，就像談論任何一種貨幣的敞口一樣。這已不再是一個獨特的前沿問題。”

His belief that the renminbi’s role in global trade is likely to continue to grow was bolstered by an HSBC survey of 1,600 executives in 14 different markets in January and February that showed more than half expect to begin using the currency more in transactions.

斯圖爾特泰特認爲，人民幣在全球貿易中的地位很可能會繼續提升，該觀點得到匯豐一項調查的支持。匯豐在今年1月和2月調查了14個不同市場的1600名高管，過半數調查對象預計在交易中會越來越多地使用人民幣。

However, while there is no doubt the renminbi is growing in stature, its ascent has not gone entirely unchallenged.

然而，儘管人民幣的地位無疑將越來越高，但它的崛起並非不受挑戰。

The euro’s role in trade has staged something of a comeback as its value has fallen and German exports have risen.

隨着歐元貶值，德國出口增長，歐元在貿易中的地位上演了一波反彈。

The HSBC survey also showed that not everyone is equally confident in the renminbi. Executives in Taiwan and Germany were more hesitant about the currency than more bullish peers in the UK, for example. Mr Tait believes that companies would be more comfortable if deeper renminbi markets developed around the world, offering greater liquidity.

匯豐的調查還顯示，並不是所有人都對人民幣同樣有信心。比如在臺灣和德國，高管們對人民幣的態度就較爲遲疑，不像英國的高管那樣樂觀。泰特相信，如果更具深度的人民幣市場能夠在世界各地發展起來，提供更大的流動性，企業將會感到更放心。

There are also questions over whether some of the numbers used to support the more confident narratives over the renminbi truly reflect reality.

也有人質疑，被用來加強人們對人民幣信心的某些數據是否如實反映了現實？

Swift says the renminbi is the currency behind almost 10 per cent of the trade carried out with letters of credit. But much of that trade is between mainland China and Hong Kong, or the mainland and Taiwan, and there have long been suspicions of significant “mis-invoicing” to evade capital controls.

Swift表示，近10%以信用證結算的貿易使用的是人民幣。但這些貿易有很多發生在中國內地與香港，或中國大陸與臺灣之間，而且一向有人懷疑這些貿易存在大量“虛開發票”現象，目的是規避資本管制。

When the IMF examined the role of the renminbi earlier this year as part of its review of whether to grant the currency SDR membership, it treated letters of credit between China and both Hong Kong and Taiwan as domestic trade. By that measure, the renminbi was behind just 3.8 per cent of the global value of letters of credit, which are dominated by the dollar.

今年早些時候IMF對人民幣的作用進行了審查，作爲其決定是否授予人民幣SDR成員資格的考察的一部分，當時IMF將中國與香港和臺灣之間的信用證結算貿易歸類爲國內貿易。按照這種計算方法，人民幣在美元主導的全球信用證結算總額中僅佔3.8%。

Volatility in China’s markets over the summer and swings in the renminbi linked to the August announcement by the People’s Bank of China that it was changing the way the currency’s daily trading band is set have also caused concerns among investors.

讓投資者擔憂的還有今年夏季中國市場的波動，以及8月因中國人民銀行(PBoC)宣佈改變每日人民幣中間價設定而引發的人民幣匯率震盪。

China may be slowing. But, as Mr Tait points out, it is still growing faster than any advanced economy.

中國經濟增速可能正在放緩。但正如泰特所指出，其增速依然快於任何發達經濟體。

“It’s about keeping it all in context,” he says. “The Chinese growth in trade will continue to outpace global growth.”

泰特說：“關鍵是要客觀地看待一切。中國的貿易增長將繼續超越全球增長。”

And for a currency that has been building its place in the global economy on the back of trade, that is likely to mean a growing role for many years to come.

對於藉助貿易在全球經濟中確立了自身地位的人民幣，這很可能意味着未來多年其地位將越來越高。