中國三大航空受累於人民幣貶值

China’s state-owned airlines have had a turbulent year and are warning of first-half earnings to match when they report this Month.

中國的國有航空公司在2013年經歷了動盪的一年，各企業將在本月發佈半年報之際，警告已經發出，今年上半年的盈利狀況也將不相上下。

With the bulk of their earnings in renminbi and fuel and aircraft costs denominated in US dollars, China’s big three airlines benefited from the Chinese currency’s steady appreciation against the greenback over the past decade.

由於收益主要以人民幣結算，而燃油和飛機成本則用美元結算，過去10年裏，中國的三大航空公司受益於人民幣相對於美元的穩定升值。

But in recent weeks, Air China, China Eastern and China Southern have all issued profit warnings, citing foreign exchange losses from the renminbi’s unexpected weakening this year.

但在最近幾周，中國國航(Air China)、東航(China Eastern )和南航(China Southern)都以今年人民幣意外走弱造成匯兌損失爲由，陸續發佈了盈利預警。

China Eastern was the latest to brace shareholders for disappointing numbers. Last month it said it would book a first-half profit of less than Rmb50m ($8m) compared with a Rmb582m profit for the same period in 2013.

東航是最後一家發佈盈警的。該公司上月表示，預計上半年利潤低於5000萬元人民幣（合800萬美元），而2013年同期的利潤額爲5.82億元人民幣。

Based in Shanghai, China Eastern has been hit by recent cancellations from Chinese military exercises, which have caused widespread disruption to flights across eastern and central China.

近期中國軍事演習造成華東和華中地區大量航班延誤和取消，給總部在上海的東航帶來很大影響。

As many as 26,000 flights could be affected by the time the People’s Liberation Army’s operations end in mid-August.

到8月中旬人民解放軍結束演習時，受影響的航班可能達到2.6萬架次。

An unexpected reversal of the renminbi’s uptrend, with the Chinese currency slipping from Rmb6 to the dollar to Rmb6.25 earlier this year, has inflated the value of the carriers’ already high debt levels in local currency terms.

人民幣的上行趨勢意外逆轉——從1美元兌6元人民幣下跌到1美元兌6.25——這使三大航本就高企的債務按人民幣計算的價值進一步升高。

“Most of the negative foreign exchange impact comes from the balance sheet and the mark-to-market of their US dollar debt,” says Patrick Xu, aviation analyst at Barclays.

“絕大部分的負面匯兌影響來自資產負債表，以及按市價計算這些航空公司的美元債務，”巴克萊(Barclays)的航空業分析師Patrick Xu說。

“These companies are very highly geared.”

“這些公司的負債比率很高。”

Macquarie estimates that at the end of last year, before the renminbi began to fall, the big three’s net debt to equity ranged between 180 per cent and 267 per cent. China Eastern is the most heavily indebted, with its gearing expected to rise to almost 500 per cent next year.

據麥格理(Macquarie)估算，在上年年末，人民幣開始走低之前，三大航的淨負債對股東權益比率處於180%到267%之間。東航的債務水平最高，其負債比率明年可能上升到近500%。

But analysts at both Barclays and Macquarie have either “buy” or “hold” recommendations on Air China and China Southern, citing strong underlying passenger demand, their monopoly pricing power on lucrative domestic routes and a resumption of the renminbi’s upward trend. Barclays also recommends buying China Eastern shares, while Macquarie has an “underperform” rating on the stock.

但是巴克萊和麥格理的分析師對國航和南航的股票給出了“買入”或者“持有”的建議，理由是基礎乘客需求強勁、在利潤豐厚的國內航線上擁有壟斷定價能力，以及人民幣恢復上行趨勢。巴克萊也推薦買入東航的股票，而麥格理則對東航股票給出了“遜於大盤”的評級。

Chinese airlines’ pricing power has insulated them from the worst effects of high fuel prices. While fuel is their biggest expense, at more than one-third of total costs, the big three – which spent Rmb99.9bn on fuel in 2013 – can pass along about 75 per cent of rises to Chinese passengers and 50 per cent to international ones.

中國航空公司的定價能力使它們沒有受到燃油價格高企的嚴重衝擊。燃油是這些航空公司最大的支出項目，佔總成本的三分之一以上，三大航2013年的燃油支出共計999億元人民幣。但三大航可以將燃油價格上漲成本的75%轉嫁給國內航線的乘客，將50%轉嫁給國際乘客。

The airlines are also contemplating a resumption of fuel hedging activities. China’s regulator banned the carriers from buying crude future contracts – a key form of protection against rising fuel costs – after they incurred heavy losses in 2009 by betting the wrong way on crude oil price movements.

三大航也在考慮恢復燃油對衝操作。由於對原油價格走勢預測錯誤，2009年中國的航空公司因購買原油期貨（一種對衝燃油價格上漲的主要手段）蒙受巨大損失，之後中國監管機構禁止了此類行爲。

Air China said in March that its board had approved a resumption in hedging activities “according to market conditions”, but confirmed on August 13 that it had not yet resumed the practice.

國航3月曾宣佈，其董事會已經批准公司“根據市場狀況”重啓對衝活動，但在8月13日證實尚未開始此類活動。

China Eastern and China Southern declined to comment on any plans to resume hedging.

東航和南航拒絕就是否計劃重啓對衝置評。

In contrast, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, which is also insulated from currency fluctuations by the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US dollar, has said that it has locked in 25 per cent of fuel requirements through the first half of 2015 at Brent crude oil prices of less than $100 a barrel. Singapore Airlines hedges up to 60 per cent of its fuel requirement. [update] On Friday Brent crude oil was trading around $102 a barrel.

香港國泰航空(Cathay Pacific)則宣佈，已將直到2015年上半年的燃油需求的四分之一鎖定在低於每桶100美元的布倫特原油(Brent crude oil)價格——由於香港實行盯住美元的聯繫匯率制，國泰航空也不會受到匯率波動的影響。新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)將多達60%的燃油需求進行了對衝安排。上週五，布倫特原油的交易價格爲每桶102美元左右。

“Managing risk associated with high and volatile fuel prices remains a priority,” said John Slosar, Cathay chairman. “Our fuel hedging extends to 2017.”

“管理與高企、易波動的燃油價格相關的風險依然是首要任務，”國泰航空董事會主席史樂山(John Slosar)說，“我們的燃油對衝持續到2017年。”