周小川迴應中國外匯儲備及人民幣貶值擔憂
SHANGHAI — For the second time since last summer, an avuncular, graying man has stepped out of Beijing’s shadows and calmed financial markets after a Chinese devaluation — but once again, his assurances came after nearly a Month of turmoil and growing worry about the country’s economic health.
上海——頭髮花白、神情慈愛的周小川，又一次在人民幣貶值而北京態度不明之際站出來，穩定金融市場。這是自去年夏天以來的第二次。但和上次一樣，他是在市場動盪持續了近一個月，外界對中國經濟的健康狀況日益擔憂之際，才作出了安撫。
Mixing folksy charm with deft explanations of economic thought, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China’s central bank, held a rare news conference in Shanghai on Friday morning, as finance officials from around the world gathered for the Group of 20 major economies meeting. Mr. Zhou acknowledged worries about spiraling debt at Chinese corporations and local governments but offered reasons why the Chinese economy might be uniquely able to deal with it for the time being.
週五上午，在世界各地的財經官員齊聚上海，參加主要經濟體組成的二十國集團（Group of 20，簡稱G20）會議之際，既有隨和的魅力，又能熟練解釋經濟思想的中國央行行長周小川，罕見地舉行了一場新聞發佈會。他承認了中國企業和地方政府債務不斷攀升的擔憂，但也給出了一些理由，解釋說中國經濟可能具有獨一無二的能力，可以暫時應對這種局面。
He also dismissed American hedge funds’ concerns about the erosion of China’s foreign exchange reserves and assured the audience that China did not plan to further devalue its currency to increase its already formidable export prowess.
美國對衝基金對中國外匯儲備縮水錶達了擔憂，但周小川對此不以爲意。他向與會者保證，中國無意爲提升本就強大的出口實力而讓人民幣進一步貶值。
China’s supply of foreign exchange reserves “is not an oil field with a static stock of oil. It is like water in a reservoir, so there are constant flows in and flows out,” he said.
他說，中國的外匯儲備規模“不像石油的油田儲備量是一個固定的數，把油抽完了就沒有了。外匯儲備有點像水庫裏流水的水庫，上游不斷的有水進來，下游也有不斷的出的，中間部分是外匯儲備”。
Following Mr. Zhou’s remarks, the Shanghai stock market rebounded 1 percent on Friday, on the heels of a 6.4 percent plunge on Thursday. The value of the renminbi also steadied on Friday in largely unregulated trading in Hong Kong, although it still dipped slightly against the dollar for the day.
在周小川發表上述言論後，上證指數週五回升1%。而在週四，滬指暴跌6.4%。週五當天，在香港基本上不受監管的交易中，人民幣匯率也處於穩定狀態，不過當天人民幣兌美元匯率仍輕微下跌。
What Mr. Zhou did not do on Friday, however, was provide any indication of when he might next offer an explanation of Chinese monetary policy. He also did not announce any plans for the People’s Bank of China to follow other leading central banks — like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan — in holding regular news briefings after important policy decisions.
然而，周小川週五並未透露，下一次可能會在何時解釋中國的貨幣政策。此外，他也沒有宣佈中國人民銀行有意效仿其他主要的中央銀行——如美聯儲(Federal Reserve)、歐洲中央銀行(European Central Bank)和日本銀行(Bank of Japan)——在重要的政策決議出臺後舉行例行新聞發佈會。
“It is very clear that he still does not want to talk too much about policy; he wants to leave it a bit uncertain,” said Zhou Hao, the Asia economist for Commerzbank, who is not related to Zhou Xiaochuan. “From China’s perspective, if it’s too transparent, then people will expect too much of you.”
“很顯然，他依然不想過多地討論政策；他希望保留一點不確定性，”德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)亞洲經濟學家周浩說。“從中國的角度來說，如果太透明瞭，人們就會對你有太多的期望。”周浩和周小川沒有親戚關係。
In contrast with the central banks of other major economies, China’s central bank is to some extent an advisory body instead of an independent, decision-making institution. The final say on major economic decisions, like interest rate moves or devaluations, belongs to the country’s political leadership.
和其他主要經濟體的央行形成鮮明對比的是，中國央行在一定程度上來說只是一個顧問機構，而不是一個獨立的決策機構。在像利率調整或人民幣貶值這樣的重大經濟決策上，最終決定權屬於中國的政治領導人。
Regular statements from the People’s Bank of China could limit those leaders’ ability to pivot quickly on policy. But quick changes — including a 4 percent devaluation of China’s currency against the dollar in early August, and a gradual devaluation in late December and early January — have led to global bouts of market turmoil.
如果中國人民銀行定期發佈公告，可能會限制這些領導人迅速調整政策的能力。但突如其來的變化，包括8月初人民幣對美元貶值4%，以及12月末和1月初人民幣逐步貶值，引起了全球市場動盪。
On both occasions, Mr. Zhou said fairly little until the next meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors a month later. The last ministerial meeting was in September in Ankara, Turkey; China holds the group’s presidency this year and chose Shanghai for the gathering on Friday night and Saturday.
周小川兩次都說得很少，直到一個月後召開下一次G20財政部長和央行行長會議。上一次財長會議是9月在土耳其安卡拉舉行的。今年，作爲G20主席國的中國選擇了上海作爲會議舉辦地。會議週五晚上開幕，週六結束。
The secrecy of the central bank was not a problem for Chinese policy makers as long as they maintained strict regulation of money moving in and out of the country. But Mr. Zhou has dismantled many of those controls over the past two years as part of a successful move to increase international use of the renminbi and to win the International Monetary Fund’s approval of it in November as a reserve currency. That has left interest rates, stock prices and money flows in China much more exposed to international sentiment about the country’s economic prospects.
過去，對中國的政策制定者來說，只要對進出中國的資金維持嚴格的管控，央行的保密性就不是問題。但過去兩年裏，周小川廢除了很多這類的管控措施。這是一項成功行動的一部分，該行動擴大了人民幣在國際市場的使用，並於11月贏得國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的同意，成爲其儲備貨幣。這大大提升了國際市場有關中國經濟前景的看法，對中國的利率、股價和資金流動的影響。
United States Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew added his voice late Friday afternoon to those calling for China to explain policy changes.
週五下午晚些時候，美國財長雅各布·J·盧(Jacob J. Lew)加入了其他人的行列，呼籲中國對其政策變化作出解釋。
“The exchange rate policy is one in particular that needs to be clearly communicated, and it’s important that as they make their transitions, that they do it in an orderly way,” he told a small group of reporters in Shanghai before a meeting with other finance ministers.
“尤其需要明確解釋匯率政策，在調整政策時，也要有序過渡，這一點很重要，”他在參加有其他財長出席的一場會議前，對上海的一小羣記者說。
Although Mr. Zhou spoke for more than an hour at his news conference on Friday morning in a large, tastefully decorated hall on the fourth floor of the central bank’s Shanghai branch office, he said virtually nothing that would limit the political leadership’s options. He did not, for instance, categorically rule out another decline in the renminbi at some point against the dollar.
週五上午，周小川的新聞發佈會在央行上海分行四樓一個裝修典雅的大廳裏舉行。儘管講話持續了一個多小時，但他幾乎沒有談到可能會侷限領導層可選方案的內容。比如，他並未完全排除人民幣兌美元的匯率會在某個時刻再次下跌的可能性。
When one question suggested the renminbi was pegged to a basket of other currencies, Mr. Zhou quickly objected. He said instead that the value of the renminbi would be set “with reference” to a basket of other currencies — essentially a weighted average. He preserved even more flexibility for China’s leadership by emphasizing that the renminbi would not be measured against just one basket, but against several.
當有人提問時稱，人民幣“盯住”了一籃子貨幣時，周小川迅速表示了反對。他說，人民幣的價值是“參照”一籃子貨幣，本質上是一個加權平均值。他甚至還爲中國領導人保留了更多的靈活性，強調人民幣參照的不僅是一籃子，而是多種貨幣。
Mr. Zhou decisively ruled out a depreciation for the purpose of trade advantage, but did not address whether the currency might someday rise or fall for other reasons.
周小川明確排除了爲取得貿易優勢而讓人民幣貶值的可能性，但他並未提到人民幣會不會在某一天因爲其他原因而升值或貶值。
“We will not resort to competitive depreciation so as to boost our advantage in exports,” he said.
“我們也不會用參與競爭性貶值來增強中國的出口能力，”他說。
Mr. Zhou hinted at another Chinese policy effort to strengthen economic growth when he talked about there being room for banks to lend more money for mortgages. Although companies and local governments are heavily in debt, Chinese households generally are not, he noted.
談到銀行體系有發放更多個人住房抵押貸款的機會時，他暗示了中國爲加強經濟增長而實行的另一項政策。周小川指出，儘管企業和地方政府債臺高築，但中國的家庭普遍沒有沉重的債務負擔。
The People’s Bank of China recently cut the regulatory minimum for down payments on mortgages to 20 percent of a home’s value, from 30 percent.
最近，中國人民銀行將個人住房抵押貸款最低首付標準從總房價的30%，降到了20%。
Mr. Zhou also offered explanations why foreign investors were wrong to worry about China’s rising overall levels of credit, relative to economic output. China has a far higher savings rate than most other economies, so banks have a lot in deposits to lend, he said.
周小川還解釋了外國投資者不用擔心中國總體債務相對於經濟產出的比例不斷攀升的原因。他說，中國的儲蓄率遠高於其他大部分經濟體，因此銀行有大量可以用來放貸的儲蓄資金。
China’s stock markets are somewhat small, compared with the size of its economy, forcing companies that need money to rely more on bank loans and bonds, he added. And because China was poor until very recently, many families have not had enough time to accumulate the wealth to start businesses just with their own savings.
他接着表示，和中國的經濟體量相比，中國股市規模有些小，這迫使需要資金的企業更依賴銀行貸款和債券。並且因爲直到不久前，中國還比較貧窮，很多家庭沒有足夠的時間來積累財富，用自己的存款創辦企業。
“If you don’t have a lot of accumulation,” he said, “you have to borrow.”
“機會又好，又沒有底子，怎麼辦？”他說。“就靠借錢。”
