特朗普說中國讓人民幣貶值 事實正相反

HONG KONG — In Monday’s presidential debate, Donald Trump repeated one of his frequent criticisms of China: It keeps its currency artificially cheap.

香港——在上週一的大選辯論中，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)再一次老調重彈，指責中國人爲地壓低人民幣匯率。

Of all the countries in the world, he said, China is “the best ever” at devaluing its currency, the renminbi. That gives its companies a big — and unfair — advantage when selling its goods abroad, the argument goes.

他說，把全世界所有國家都算上，中國是“有史以來最善於”讓本國貨幣——人民幣——貶值的。據他所說，這讓中國公司在把商品銷往海外時獲得了巨大的並且是不公平的優勢。

That’s no longer quite the case. Nowadays, China faces the opposite problem: It is shoring up its currency while the rest of the world is trying to push it down.

事實已經並非如此了。眼下，中國面臨着截然相反的問題：它正在外界竭力打壓人民幣之際爲其提供支撐。

That change speaks to an enormous shift in China’s economic fortunes and to its position in the world. Not long ago, it was still an up-and-coming country looking for ways to nurture an economic boom that was lifting millions of people out of poverty.

這種變化反映了中國經濟狀況的巨大轉變以及它在世界上的位置。不久前，它還是一個想方設法促進經濟繁榮，讓無數國人擺脫貧困的新興國家。

Today, China is a world power with ambitions to call more of the shots in world economic affairs. Beijing is no longer content to cede that role to the likes of Brussels, London, Tokyo and Washington.

如今，中國已經成爲世界性大國，雄心勃勃地想要在世界經濟事務中享有更多決策權。北京不願再把相關權力拱手讓給布魯塞爾、倫敦、東京、華盛頓等地。

With that shift in attitude comes a change in the way China thinks about its money. A decade ago, China saw its currency as merely a tool to help its factories sell goods. That meant keeping it weak.

隨着其態度發生這樣的轉變，中國看待本國貨幣的角度也變了。10年前，中國只把人民幣視爲幫助本國工廠銷售產品的工具。那意味着要讓它維持弱勢。

Now, China sees the renminbi as an instrument of its growing power. If more people around the world hold renminbi in their wallets, the thinking goes, then China will have greater say in the decisions they make. Someday, Beijing hopes, the renminbi may even rival the dollar as the world’s de facto currency.

現在，中國把人民幣視爲增強自身影響力的工具。其想法是：如果在世界各地有更多人把人民幣塞進錢包，那他們在做決策時就會更多地受到中國的影響。北京甚至希望，人民幣有朝一日能作爲實際上的世界性貨幣與美元分庭抗禮。

With that in mind, China has moved in recent years to make the renminbi more appealing. On Saturday, when the International Monetary Fund is set to formally add the renminbi to its basket of reserve currencies, a move that will lump it in with the dollar, the pound, the euro and the yen, it will take another step in that direction.

有了這層考慮，中國近年來採取了一些讓人民幣更具吸引力的舉措。國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)在不久前正式把人民幣加入特別提款權貨幣籃子——人民幣將由此躋身美元、英鎊、歐元和日元的行列——是中國朝那個方向邁出的又一步。

But in the year since the monetary fund first said it would bestow that status on the renminbi, the Chinese currency has become less attractive. Despite Mr. Trump’s contention — which, like his assertions about Japan, harks back to another era — many economists say they believe the renminbi is overvalued, not undervalued.

但在這一年裏，自從國際貨幣基金組織首次宣佈將賦予人民幣這種地位以來，中國貨幣已經變得不那麼有吸引力了。儘管特朗普亮明瞭觀點——和他對日本的看法一樣，已經過時了——但許多經濟學家都表示，他們認爲人民幣目前處於高估而非低估的狀態。

Tony Gao, a senior at the University of Southern California, helped found a start-up called Easy Transfer three years ago. The company helps Chinese parents with children going to American schools exchange their renminbi for dollars. But business growth is down this year, he said, because many affluent Chinese have already changed their renminbi for dollars.

南加州大學(University of Southern California)大三學生高宇同(Tony Gao)三年前與人聯手創辦了初創企業易思匯(Easy Transfer)。該公司會幫助送子女去美國讀書的中國父母把人民幣兌換成美元。但他說，今年的業務增長有所放緩，因爲很多富有的中國人已經把人民幣換成美元了。

“A lot of them already have acknowledged this depreciation,” Mr. Gao said, adding that he was thinking of switching his renminbi to dollars, too. “Now I’m actually on the edge.”

“他們很多人都意識到了這種貶值的趨勢，”高宇同說他自己也在考慮把手裏的人民幣換成美元。“我現在就在決策的門檻上。”

Currency 101

貨幣的常識

The situation with the renminbi:

人民幣的處境是這樣的：

Under the traditional rules of economics, the value of a country’s currency will go up if the world moves more money there. That is what should have happened in China. People around the world poured money into the country as they bought its products and as companies built factories and invested in China’s growth.

按照傳統的經濟規則，當人們把更多的錢轉移到一個國家的時候，該國貨幣便會升值。中國本應出現這種情況。當人們購買中國的商品，企業在中國投資建廠、押注於該國經濟增長的時候，曾有大把的錢撒向那裏。

Instead, China largely kept its currency at a steady value compared with the dollar. That contributed to imbalances in the country, but it kept the renminbi weak.

然而，中國基本讓人民幣對美元匯率保持了穩定。這在某種程度上造成了中國經濟的失衡，但它此前一直讓人民幣處於疲軟狀態。

For China’s manufacturers, a weak currency is ideal. If the renminbi is at, say, eight to the dollar, then a $100 widget translates into an 800 renminbi sale. At a stronger seven renminbi to the dollar, that same $100 widget generates only 700 renminbi in sales.

對中國製造商而言，疲軟的貨幣是好事。舉個例子，如果1美元可兌換8人民幣，那麼賣出100美元的小商品就可以有800人民幣的銷售收入。如果人民幣走強，1美元只能兌換7人民幣，那麼同樣是賣出100美元的小商品，只能產生700人民幣的銷售收入。

That is not ideal for the American factories that compete with Chinese rivals. In previous years, China’s currency policy angered American lawmakers and took center stage in the United States’ dealings with China.

但對那些與中國對手競爭的美國工廠而言，這就不是好事了。前些年，中國的貨幣政策觸怒了美國的議員，成爲了美國對華事務的核心議題。

What Changed?

什麼改變了？

For starters, China’s growth rate slowed, and the flow of money into the country moderated. Both factors have led economists to say that the renminbi might be fairly valued, or even overvalued. The verdict, for many investors: China’s currency is poised to weaken.

首先，中國增速放緩，且進入該國的資金流減弱。這兩個因素促使一些經濟學家表示，人民幣的價值可能是合理的，甚至被高估了。對很多投資人來說結論便是：中國的貨幣即將走弱。

There are other forces at work. China has taken steps over the past few years to relax its hold on the renminbi. That makes it easier for banks and merchants abroad to save the renminbi or to use it in transactions. Manufacturing has also declined as a major growth driver in the country’s economy, as the government pushes to build its growing consumer and high-tech sectors.

還有其他力量在發揮作用。過去幾年裏，中國採取多項措施，意在放鬆對人民幣的控制。這降低了海外銀行和商戶儲蓄人民幣或在交易中使用人民幣的難度。隨着政府推動建設該國規模漸長的消費和高科技行業，作爲中國經濟主要增長動力的製造業也出現了下滑。

Since August of last year, when Beijing surprised global markets with a one-time devaluation of its currency, investors have been broadly seeking to unload their renminbi in favor of dollars.

去年8月，北京讓人民幣一次性貶值，震驚全球市場。自那時以來，投資者普遍尋求拋售人民幣，換取美元。

In Hong Kong, the biggest offshore center for renminbi banking, deposits of the Chinese currency peaked in December 2014 and have since fallen by a third.

在最大的人民幣銀行業務離岸中心香港，人民幣存款在2014年12月達到巔峯，現在和那時相比已減少三分之一。

For five years since 2010, the renminbi had made small but progressive gains as a global payment currency, as measured by transactions processed on the Swift global payment system. But that usage crested in August 2015 at 2.8 percent of transactions, and it has declined steadily since then, to 1.9 percent in August.

用通過環球銀行金融電信協會(Swift)全球支付系統處理的交易來衡量，在從2010年開始的五年時間裏，人民幣作爲全球支付貨幣的作用逐步小幅提升。但這一功能在2015年8月達到峯值，使用人民幣支付的交易比例達2.8%。之後，這個數字逐步下滑至今年8月的1.9%。

China has spent hundreds of billions of dollars from its foreign reserves over the past year to support the value of the renminbi and to prevent it from weakening more drastically. A sharp fall could lead even more people to find ways to convert their renminbi into other currencies, resulting in an exodus of money from the country. More broadly, it could undermine Beijing’s case that the renminbi is worth holding.

過去一年裏，爲了支持人民幣的價值並防止其更加劇烈地貶值，中國花了數千億美元的外匯儲備。外匯儲備急劇下跌可能會導致更多人設法將持有的人民幣兌換成其他貨幣，造成資本外流。在更廣泛的層面上，這對力求證明人民幣值得持有的北京是不利的。

Under Pressure

壓力之下

Even long-term supporters of the renminbi now seem to see the currency’s pause as perhaps inevitable.

即便是人民幣的長期支持者現在似乎也認爲，它停止升值也許不可避免。

“It’s been the strongest currency in the world for the last 10 years or so, and anything that strong should consolidate, should have a correction,” said Jim Rogers, a Singapore-based investor who is well known for being bullish on China. “Is it a normal market correction or being jiggled? Maybe some of both,” he added.

“它是過去大約10年裏全世界最強勁的貨幣，任何強勁到這個地步的東西都需要固化，需要進行一次調整，”身在新加坡的投資人吉姆•羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)說。他因爲看漲中國而聲名遠揚。“是正常的市場調整還是動盪？可能都有一些，”他接着說。

Mr. Rogers, who made his name in the 1970s as a co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, said he retained a positive long-term view of the Chinese currency. But he said the renminbi could continue to come under selling pressure in the next year or so, as investors flock to the perceived safety of the dollar.

羅傑斯因在70年代和喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)共同創立量子基金(Quantum fund)而成名。他表示從長遠來看，自己仍對人民幣持樂觀態度。但他說，在未來的大約一年裏，隨着投資者紛紛認爲美元較爲安全，人民幣可能仍會面臨拋售壓力。

Some of the renminbi’s declines, Mr. Rogers added, were “a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

羅傑斯接着表示，人民幣貶值在一定程度上“是個自證預言”。

“Because it’s not convertible, people feel trapped and want to get out,” he said.

“因爲不可兌換，人們覺得被困住了，都想出去，”他說。

Longer term, despite the I.M.F.’s planned move, few expect the renminbi to rival the dollar as a haven, or even as a significant reserve currency, unless China pushes forward with dramatic legal and financial changes.

從長遠來看，儘管IMF計劃採取相關行動，但鮮有人認爲人民幣會成爲能夠與美元相媲美的避風港，甚至是重要的儲備貨幣，除非中國推進巨大的法律和金融變革。

Inclusion in the monetary fund’s basket is “a symbolically momentous event but is unlikely by itself to be a game changer in global finance,” said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and a former top I.M.F. official for China. He is also the author of a book called “Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi.”

將其納入貨幣基金組織的儲備貨幣籃子是“一件象徵意義重大的事情，但它本身不太可能改變全球金融的格局，”康奈爾大學(Cornell University)教授、前IMF中國部門高官埃斯瓦爾•S•普拉薩德(Eswar S. Prasad)說。他還是《不斷升值的貨幣——人民幣的崛起》(Gaining Currency: The Rise of the Renminbi)的作者。

“Notwithstanding the I.M.F.’s imprimatur, the renminbi will not become a significant reserve currency unless China has better-developed and well-regulated financial markets,” Mr. Prasad added.

“儘管獲得了IMF的正式批准，但人民幣不會成爲重要的儲備貨幣，除非中國能有一個更發達的、監管良好的金融市場，”普拉薩德接着說。