美聯儲加息與人民幣貶值哪個更可怕
The current will-they-won’t-they game is over at last: the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Wednesday.
當下這場加不加息的遊戲終於要落幕了：美聯儲(Fed)將在週三加息。
So say investors, who have fully priced in a quarter-point rise.
投資者是這樣說的，他們全力押注美聯儲肯定加息25個基點。
But for emerging markets, particularly in Asia, such a Move will only prompt another question, namely which matters more for 2017 — the Fed, or China?
但對新興市場、尤其是亞洲新興市場而言，此舉只會引發另一個問題：2017年哪一個因素更重要——美聯儲，還是中國？
Emerging Asia just suffered its worst month of outflows since the taper tantrum of 2013.
亞洲新興市場剛剛遭受了自2013年縮減恐慌(taper tantrum)以來最嚴重的月度資金外流。
A net $22bn fled the region’s stock and bond markets in November, according to ANZ in a Trump tantrum.
澳新銀行(ANZ)數據顯示，在特朗普恐慌(Trump tantrum)中，11月份亞洲新興經濟體股票和債券市場淨流出220億美元。
Departing investors expect that the president-elect’s infrastructure spending plans and tax cut plans would boost inflation and push up interest rates further.
正在離場的投資者預期，特朗普的基礎設施支出計劃及減稅計劃將提高通脹，並進一步推高利率。
Until the latest move, links between US interest rates and local markets had appeared to weaken, leaving Asia to trade on its relative merits.
在美聯儲採取最新動作之前，美國利率水平和亞洲市場之間的關聯似乎有所減弱，這使得亞洲可以利用自身的相對優勢。
As a result, this apparent re-coupling has come as a sharp shock.
因此，關聯性重新增強無疑是一次強烈衝擊。
The Fed risk is based on assumptions that the US will curb resurgent inflation with an unexpectedly speedy series of rate rises — hitting Asian borrowers hard.
關於美聯儲會帶來什麼風險，基本假設是：美國將利用出其不意的一連串快速加息抑制通脹擡頭，這將對亞洲的借款者造成很大沖擊。
Sharp rises in US yields — 10-year Treasuries hit two-year highs on Monday — have already lifted Asian equivalents.
美國國債收益率大幅上漲——10年期美國國債收益率週一觸及兩年高位——已經帶動亞洲國債收益率上升。
Higher rates in the US would also limit the attraction of EM assets, whose currencies tend to gain only slightly from net inflows, according to research by Société Générale, but weaken sharply when the money moves out.
根據法國興業銀行(Société Générale)的研究，美國利率升高還將抑制新興市場資產的吸引力，新興市場的貨幣往往在資金淨流入時只獲得小幅升值，卻在資金流出時大幅貶值。
China’s role depends on its currency and its economy.
中國扮演的角色取決於其貨幣和經濟。
In spite of Beijing’s slow-and-steady approach, a sharp weakening of the renminbi remains one of emerging Asia’s biggest fears: it risks denting rivals’ export competitiveness at a stroke, as well as destabilising global markets.
雖然北京方面採取了穩紮穩打的方式，但是人民幣大幅貶值仍是亞洲新興市場最擔憂的問題之一：大幅貶值可能一舉削弱競爭對手的出口競爭力，還會讓全球市場陷入不穩定。
China’s economic growth, too, is unpredictable as it tries to balance expansion with efforts to streamline inefficient industries.
中國的經濟增長也難以預料，因爲中國力圖在精簡低效產業的同時維持經濟擴張。
Expect any weakness to show up first in its neighbours’ export and commodity sectors.
預計會先出現疲軟的是其鄰國的出口和大宗商品領域。
The risks posed by China are more alarming, but less measurable than the actions of the Fed.
中國帶來的風險更令人擔憂，但沒有美聯儲行動所帶來的風險那麼容易察覺。
Expect to see China fears cited in moments of market mayhem but the actions of the Fed to play a larger role in everyday emerging Asia.
一旦市場出現動盪，對中國的擔憂會被認爲是造成混亂的原因，但在亞洲新興市場的日常市況中，美聯儲所採取行動的影響會更大。
Starting on Wednesday, the will-they-won’t-they game will begin all over again as investors attempt to gauge just how hawkish the US central bank really is.
從週三開始，隨着投資者嘗試判斷美國央行的立場到底有多麼鷹派，揣測美聯儲加不加息的遊戲將再度上演。
