人民幣繼續走跌 央行無意終止人民幣貶值

China is in no hurry to halt a recent slide in the yuan despite new U.S. pressure to get Beijing to strengthen the Chinese currency against the dollar.

中國並不急於終止人民幣近期的跌勢，儘管美國重新開始對中國施壓，要求中國引導人民幣兌美元升值。

Interviews with a Chinese central-bank official, bankers and analysts suggest Beijing won't Move in the near term to halt the currency's weakening. The yuan has fallen 2.3% this year, making the tightly controlled currency the worst-performing in Asia against the dollar, according to HSBC Holdings PLC.

對一位中國央行官員以及一些銀行家和分析師的採訪揭示出，中國政府近期內不會採取行動終止人民幣的跌勢。據匯豐控股(HSBC Holdings PLC.)稱，人民幣兌美元今年迄今已累計下跌2.3%，在亞洲貨幣中表現最差。

The drop prompted a senior official at the U.S. Treasury Department on Monday to warn that Washington is looking closely at whether Beijing's efforts to devalue the yuan represent a shift in policy that could start a round of competitive devaluations. It would 'raise serious concerns,' the Treasury official said, if China is backing away from making the yuan a more market-based currency.

人民幣的下跌已促使美國財政部一位高級官員在週一警告稱，美國政府正密切關注中國近期允許人民幣貶值的做法是否意味着匯率政策的轉變，這可能會引發一輪競爭性貨幣貶值。這位官員稱，如果中國在人民幣匯率市場化進程中開倒車，將引發外界的嚴重擔憂。

But Beijing considers the drop part of its effort to drive out short-term speculators who see the yuan's strengthening as a sure bet, said the central-bank official and others. That makes Beijing unlikely to act unless the yuan, also known as the renminbi, moves too sharply.

但這位中國央行官員和其他人士表示，中國引導人民幣走軟意在把押注人民幣單邊升值的短線投機者擠出市場。因此，除非人民幣波動過大，否則中國政府不大可能採取行動。

'Part of the central bank's job is to maintain stability in the renminbi's exchange rate,' said an official at the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank. 'Barring a sharp decline that could destabilize the country's economy, the PBOC is unlikely to intervene to make it higher,'

中國央行的一位官員稱，中國央行的部分職能就是維持人民幣匯率穩定，除非人民幣出現可能破壞中國經濟穩定的劇烈跌勢，否則，央行不大可能入市干預推動人民幣走強。

The drop also reflects investor concern about a further slowdown in the Chinese economy, say analysts and investors. It comes after the central bank last month doubled the range in which the yuan is permitted to trade on a daily basis, which has exacerbated the slide spurred by Beijing.

分析人士和投資者說，人民幣走低還反映出投資者擔心中國經濟會進一步放緩。中國央行上個月將人民幣匯率日交易區間擴大一倍，加劇了政府引導的人民幣跌勢。

'Market participants have taken this as a cue to sell yuan as they became increasingly concerned over recent signs of slowing economic growth,' said Zhang Ming, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, a government think tank.

中國政府智庫中國社科院高級經濟學家張明稱，市場參與者將此作爲賣出人民幣的信號，因爲他們對最近顯示出的經濟增長放緩跡象越來越擔心。

The yuan strengthened slightly Tuesday, closing in Beijing at 6.1968 yuan per dollar, compared with 6.2123 on Friday. China's markets were closed Monday for a public holiday.

人民幣週二小幅走高，美元兌人民幣收報6.1968元，上週五收報6.2123元。中國匯市週一因公共假日休市。

Longer term, investors and analysts widely believe China will allow the currency to resume its rise against the dollar, adding to a more-than-33% strengthening since 2005. They cite expected capital inflows, the potential for an improving economy later in the year and concern about producing a backlash in Washington that could cause congressional action to penalize China.

從中長期看，投資者和分析人士普遍認爲，中國將允許人民幣重拾兌美元的升勢，在2005年以來已經累計逾33%漲幅的基礎上進一步推高人民幣幣值。他們給出的原因包括，預期資本流入、今年晚些時候經濟可能好轉以及擔心在華盛頓引發的強烈反對可能導致美國國會對中國採取懲罰行動。

'I do not believe that the Chinese government has changed its policy of a gradually appreciating yuan, so I would expect an appreciating bias into the year-end,' said Suanjin Tan, a Singapore-based fixed-income portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc.

貝萊德(BlackRock Inc.)駐新加坡固定收益投資組合經理Suanjin Tan稱，他認爲中國政府沒有改變允許人民幣逐步升值的政策，所以他預計年底前人民幣將升值。

But its current stance is likely to make the issue a lingering source of contention between Beijing and Washington. The U.S. and other Western countries have long urged China to let the yuan rise at a faster pace. A weaker yuan, they have said, gives Chinese exporters an unfair edge over their foreign competitors.

不過中國當前的政策立場可能令這一問題成爲中美政府間揮之不去的爭論根源。美國和其他西方國家長時間來反覆敦促中國加快人民幣升值步伐。他們稱，人民幣走軟令中國出口商在和外國企業競爭時獲得了不公平的優勢。

People familiar with the PBOC's thinking have argued that depreciation is needed to drive out short-term speculators who expect steady appreciation and have used different methods to buy yuan, putting even more pressure on the currency to appreciate.

熟悉中國央行想法的人士稱，人民幣需要貶值才能將那些押注人民幣單邊升值的短線投機者擠出市場。這些投機者利用各種方式買入人民幣，這進一步加大了人民幣的升值壓力。

An influx of speculative capital last year--driven in part by investors betting on yuan-denominated assets--complicated China's efforts to manage the economy, contributing to property bubbles and injecting excess cash into the financial system. One sign of the PBOC's heavy intervention to control the yuan's rise: China's foreign-exchange reserves grew nearly $510 billion last year, to $3.8 trillion, as the central bank bought dollars with yuan and tried to slow the appreciation of the Chinese currency.

去年投機性資本流入（部分由押注人民幣計價資產的投機者帶來）加大了中國政府管理經濟的難度，吹大了房地產泡沫並向金融體系注入過多的流動性。中國央行大幅介入限制人民幣漲幅的跡象之一是：去年中國外匯儲備規模增加近5,100億美元，至3.8萬億美元。中國央行用人民幣買入美元，以試圖放緩人民幣的升值速度。

'The Chinese authorities will remain cautious in the near term regarding any potential resurgence in speculative appetite for the yuan,' said Paul Mackel, head of Asian currency research at HSBC in Hong Kong.

匯豐(HSBC)駐香港亞洲外匯研究主管Paul Mackel表示，中國政府短期內將保持謹慎，以防止人民幣投機性需求再次擡頭。

China hopes to convince investors that the yuan could just as easily weaken as strengthen, giving them pause when they consider piling on bullish bets that could add upward pressure on the currency. Greater two-way fluctuation, they maintain, is necessary before China can give the market a bigger role in determining the yuan's value--a move the government must make to fulfill its ambitions that the yuan become an important global currency.

中國政府希望讓投資者相信，人民幣升值和貶值都是很正常的事，希望投資者在考慮大舉押注人民幣升值前三思。對中國政府來說，加大人民幣雙向波動的幅度是提高匯率市場化程度的必要條件；而中國要實現人民幣國際化的雄心壯志，則必須實現匯率市場化。

Chinese officials also have argued in the past year that the yuan is approaching its fair-market value, meaning that investors shouldn't expect it to increase in value much more. As evidence, they point to the country's shrinking trade surpluses.

中國官員去年反覆說過，人民幣已經接近其公允市場價值，這意味着人民幣不會大幅升值。官員以中國貿易順差收窄的例子來證明這一觀點。

The PBOC started intervening in late February to drive down the yuan's value against the dollar. It guided its parity rate--the daily rate at which the yuan is allowed to trade 2% either way--lower against the dollar. It also instructed banks to purchase the dollar, according to traders and people familiar with the central bank's thinking.

中國央行今年2月底開始出手干預，推動人民幣兌美元下跌。中國央行下調了其每日公佈的人民幣對美元匯率中間價（人民幣匯率可以圍繞這一中間價上下浮動2%）。據交易員和熟悉中國央行想法的人士稱，中國央行還指導銀行買入美元。

Lingling Wei / Bob Davis

Lingling Wei / Bob Davis