人民幣意外貶值加大貨幣戰危險
According to conventional wisdom, wars are easy to start and difficult to end. Similarly Beijing’s devaluation, the biggest one-day currency move since 1993, represents the latest skirmish in an emerging battle which, analysts warn, may be hard to reverse.
人們常說，發動戰爭容易，難就難在結束戰爭。類似地，北京方面出臺的人民幣貶值措施（自1993年以來人民幣最大單日匯率變動），代表着一場已有打響之勢的戰爭的最新動作。分析師們警告，這場輪廓漸漸清晰的戰爭可能一發而不可收。
The move marks a shift in China’s historical policy during times of economic stress. In the late 1990s, the country was widely credited with containing the destruction from the Asian financial crisis because it held fast to the renminbi exchange rate in the midst of competitive devaluations throughout the region.
此舉標誌着中國曆來在經濟緊張時期奉行的政策出現了變化。上世紀90年代末，中國被廣泛譽爲遏止了亞洲金融危機帶來的破壞，因爲在整個亞洲出現競爭性貨幣貶值之際，中國保持了人民幣匯率穩定。
In the global financial crisis of 2008, Beijing also refused to devalue even as its exports, a key driver of the economy, evaporated overnight.
在2008年的全球金融危機期間，北京方面也拒絕貶值，即便中國經濟的主要驅動力之一出口出現驟降。
But now, in the midst of a pronounced and persistent Chinese economic slowdown and continued appreciation pressure resulting from the renminbi’s “dirty peg” to the soaring US dollar, China’s leaders have decided to take the plunge.
但現在，隨着中國經濟增長出現顯著而持續的放緩，而人民幣因爲與不斷飆升的美元存在不透明的掛鉤而持續受到升值壓力，中國領導人決定冒險一試。
“This shows how desperate the government is over the state of the economy,” said Fraser Howie, a China analyst and co-author of Red Capitalism. “If they were trying, as the central bank said it was, to bring the exchange rate back into line with market expectations then they have failed miserably as the market is now just expecting further devaluation.”
“這表明政府對經濟狀況有多麼絕望，”中國事務分析人士、《紅色資本主義》(Red Capitalism)一書的合著者侯偉(Fraser Howie)表示。“如果他們像中國央行所說的那樣，是在試圖讓匯率迴歸與市場預期相符的水平，那麼他們已經慘敗，因爲現在市場只是期待着進一步的貶值。”
In its announcement of the devaluation just before markets opened on Tuesday morning, the People’s Bank of China went to considerable lengths to insist this was a one-off move and part of a broader shift to a more market-orientated exchange rate mechanism.
在週二市場開盤前宣佈貶值時，中國人民銀行(PBoC)以相當大的篇幅堅稱，此舉屬於一次性校正，而且是朝着匯率市場化方向邁進的整體努力的一部分。
The PBoC said it would calculate the daily renminbi fix — the rate it sets the currency each morning and from where it is allowed to move as much as 2 percentage points in either direction — by taking more notice of market forces, including movements in global currency markets.
中國央行表示，它將在計算人民幣匯率中間價時更多地參考市場因素，包括全球匯市的變動。中國央行每日上午設定人民幣匯率中間價，允許其在當日上升或下降2個百分點。
“The People’s Bank of China has orchestrated a clever combination of a move to weaken the renminbi with a shift to a more market-determined exchange rate, blunting foreign criticism of the renminbi devaluation,” said Eswar Prasad, the former IMF country head for China.
“中國人民銀行精心策劃了這一招，把壓低人民幣與轉向在更大程度上由市場決定匯率巧妙結合起來，化解外國對人民幣貶值的批評，”國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)原中國部主任埃斯瓦渠拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示。
“China’s move will reverberate in global currency markets and signals that one of the last holdouts among the major economies may be throwing in the towel and joining the fray in trying to use currency policy as a tool to counter weak growth.”
“中國此舉將在全球匯市產生反響，它傳遞的信號是，最後幾個堅守立場的大型經濟體之一可能再也沉不住氣了，轉而投入戰局，試圖把匯率政策當作應對增長疲弱的工具。”
Virtually all analysts agree that a revival of China’s declining exports will require a much more significant depreciation than Tuesday’s “one-off” move.
幾乎所有分析師都認爲，要重振中國不斷下降的出口，將需要比周二的“一次性校正”幅度大得多的貶值。
Tom Orlik, Bloomberg chief Asia economist, estimates a 1 per cent depreciation in the real effective exchange rate boosts export growth by 1 percentage point with a time lag of three months.
彭博(Bloomberg)首席亞洲經濟學家湯姆攠爾利克(Tom Orlik)估計，實際有效匯率貶值1%，將提升出口增長1個百分點，而且有3個月的時間滯後。
But the renminbi’s inflation-adjusted, trade-weighted exchange rate against all currencies was up 3.6 per cent in the first half of this year and up 10.3 per cent since the start of 2014, according to figures from the Bank for International Settlements. As recently as last month, numerous senior officials and government experts were insisting that China would not devalue the renminbi.
但是，根據國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據，經通脹調整後的人民幣貿易加權匯率在今年上半年走高3.6%，自2014年初以來上升10.3%。就在上月，許多高級官員和政府專家還堅稱，中國不會讓人民幣貶值。
In late March, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told the Financial Times: “We don’t want to see further devaluation of the Chinese currency, because we can’t rely on devaluing our own currency to boost exports.
3月下旬，中國總理李克強對英國《金融時報》表示：“我不希望看到人民幣繼續貶值，因爲我們不能靠貶值來刺激出口。
“We don’t want to see a scenario in which major economies trip over each other to devalue their currencies,” Mr Li continued. “That will lead to a currency war, and if China feels compelled to devalue the RMB in this process, we don’t think this will be something good for the international financial system.”
“我們不願意看見貨幣競相貶值的狀態出現，”李克強繼續說。“那會出現貨幣大戰，逼着人民幣貶值，我覺得這對世界金融體系不是個好結果。”
The change in official thinking in the months since the premier all but ruled out Tuesday’s move comes as China’s economy slowed a lot more than Beijing expected. Exports, in particular, have declined, following an 8.3 per cent year-on-year drop in July.
中國總理基本上排除貶值幾個月後，官方思路顯然發生了變化，其背景是中國經濟放緩程度遠遠大於高層預期。尤其是出口下降，7月中國出口同比下降8.3%。
Last month’s bursting of a year-long equity market bubble and the government’s scramble to prop up stocks further unnerved China’s leaders and appear to have convinced them to break the longstanding taboo of devaluation.
持續一年的股市泡沫上月破裂，以及政府匆忙出手救市，使中國領導人更加不安，似乎也讓他們確信應該打破貶值的長期禁忌。
Apart from the danger of a currency war with other countries, Beijing must also be wary of political pressure from Washington where the perceived undervaluation of the renminbi has been a constant source of trade friction.
除了與其他國家爆發匯率戰爭的危險外，北京還必須警惕來自華盛頓的政治壓力，美方對於人民幣被低估的觀點一直是貿易摩擦的根源之一。
Another problem is that depreciation is likely to exacerbate capital flight, which has already become a serious issue this year for the first time in more than a decade.
另一個問題是，貶值可能加劇資本流出，今年資本流出在10多年來首次成爲中國的一個嚴重問題。
“The devaluation in the renminbi is not large enough to improve China’s export competitiveness, but it is large enough to create a sense that Beijing may have fundamentally shifted its currency policy,” said Stuart Allsopp, head of country risk and financial markets strategy at BMI Research. “The risk now is that investors see the yuan [another term for the renminbi] as a one-way bet weaker and start to position against the currency, raising the prospect of more substantial yuan weakness and more economic uncertainty.”
“人民幣貶值幅度尚不足以提高中國的出口競爭力，但足以讓人產生一種感覺，即北京可能已從根本上改變匯率政策，”BMI Research的國別風險和金融市場策略主管斯圖爾特攠爾索普(Stuart Allsopp)表示。“現在的風險是，投資者對人民幣做出只會走低不會走高的單向押注，開始打賭人民幣進一步貶值，由此帶來人民幣更大幅度走低和更多經濟不確定因素的前景。”
