有人歡喜有人憂:人民幣貶值拖累部分企業業績

China's depreciating currency may be benefiting the nation's export-oriented industries, but other businesses are beginning to feel the pain, with some domestic companies expecting weaker quarterly results because of a cheaper yuan.

人民幣貶值可能令中國出口導向型行業受益，但其他行業開始感受到負面影響，中國國內一些企業預計人民幣貶值將導致其季度業績疲軟。

The Chinese yuan fell 2.7% in the first quarter against the U.S. dollar, reversing several years of consistent gains, as part of the government's recent efforts to devalue it, a Move that has prompted sharp criticism from the U.S.

第一季度人民幣兌美元下跌2.7%，扭轉了連續幾年的升值趨勢。這在一定程度上是受到中國政府壓低人民幣匯率的舉措影響，已招致美國的強烈批評。

The yuan's weakness has percolated through to some corporate sectors, including airlines and oil producers, increasing capital and operating costs and boosting the value of foreign-currency debt.

人民幣貶值的影響已經滲透到一些公司領域，航空公司、石油生產商等企業的資本和運營成本上升，外幣債務的價值增加。

For many companies, the recent moves of the yuan, which was fixed at its weakest level in over seven months on Wednesday, represent a reversal from the outsize foreign-exchange gains firms were reaping as the yuan gained in value.

對很多公司而言，人民幣最近的波動逆轉了企業因人民幣升值而實現的大量匯兌利得。週三人民幣中間價被設定在七個多月來的最低水平。

Analysts said sectors with significant foreign currency debt and high import costs or overseas expenses are particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the exchange rate. These include airlines, and real estate and consumer goods.

分析師們表示，擁有鉅額外幣債務和高進口成本或海外支出的行業尤其容易受到匯率波動的影響。這些行業包括航空業、房地產業和消費品業。

'The reason you are buying U.S. dollars would be because you need to buy some commodity priced in U.S. dollars. For airlines that would be jet fuel and aircraft,' said Patrick Xu, an analyst at Barclays Research. For oil producers, that may be crude oil, which is also denominated in dollars, he said.

巴克萊研究(Barclays Research)的分析師Patrick Xu稱，企業購買美元是因爲它們需要買一些以美元計價的大宗商品。他表示，對航空公司來說，買美元就是爲了購買航空燃油和飛機；對石油生產商來說，買美元可能就是爲了購買原油，原油也是以美元計價的。

With a weaker yuan, companies in sectors with high foreign-currency indebtedness are forced to pay back lenders more in foreign-currency terms.

由於人民幣貶值，外幣債務較多的行業就不得不向貸款機構償還更多錢。

China Southern Airlines Co. said late Tuesday it expects to post a net loss of between 300 million yuan ($48.2 million) and 350 million yuan for the first quarter, reversing from a 57 million yuan net profit a year earlier.

中國南方航空股份有限公司(China Southern Airlines Co.,ZNH, 簡稱:南方航空)週二晚間表示，預計第一季度公司將出現人民幣3億元（合4,820萬美元）至人民幣3.5億元的淨虧損。去年第一季度，該公司實現淨利潤人民幣5,700萬元。

The nation's biggest airline by fleet cited a substantial increase in financial costs linked to the yuan's depreciation as the main cause of earnings weakness. Chinese airlines have as much as 80% of their net debt denominated in U.S. dollars to finance aircraft purchases, as well as for jet fuel on international flights.

南方航空表示，與人民幣貶值相關的財務成本顯著增加，是公司第一季度業績疲軟的主要原因。按飛機數量排名，該公司是中國最大的航空公司。中國航空企業以美元計價的淨債務佔到總債務的80%左右，主要涉及到給購買飛機融資以及支付國際航班的航空燃油費用。

In 2013, China Southern booked a net foreign-exchange gain of 2.90 billion yuan after the yuan rose 3% against the dollar for the year.

2013年，隨着人民幣兌美元全年升值3%，南方航空計入了人民幣29億元的淨匯兌利得。

On Friday, state-owned oil refiner Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. said it expected to report the company's first quarterly net loss in over a year on the back of the depreciating yuan, which led to a substantial increase in financial costs for the quarter. Over 90% of the company's crude-oil needs are imported.

上海石油化工股份有限公司(SINOPEC Shanghai Petrochemical Co., 簡稱：上海石化)上週五稱，受人民幣貶值影響，該公司預計將公佈一年多來的首次季度虧損，人民幣貶值大幅推高了第一季度的財務成本。上海石化的原油需求超過90%來自進口。

Meanwhile, Chinese property developers are also vulnerable to the yuan's depreciation, as foreign-currency loans and bonds account for up to 90% of their outstanding debt.

中國房地產開發商也很容易受到人民幣貶值的衝擊。這類公司中，外幣貸款和債務在其債務餘額中的佔比最高達到90%。

'Unlike their commodity counterparts, property developers also have their revenues in [yuan] and further, most have not hedged their offshore borrowings,' Morgan Stanley analysts said in a recent note.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師在最近的研究報告中稱，不同於大宗商品貿易商，房地產開發商還有以人民幣計價的收入，而且大多數房企沒有對海外借款進行風險對衝。

The investment bank said it expects borrowings across the sector to increase this year.

摩根士丹利預計今年中國房地產行業的借款將增加。

Still, analysts see limited impact of a weaker currency on the various Chinese sectors if the yuan's decline stabilizes near current levels and they aren't expecting an uncontrolled weakening.

不過，分析師預計，如果人民幣跌勢穩定在當前水平，對中國各行業的影響有限；他們預計人民幣不會出現無法控制的下跌。

For example, exchange losses at Chinese state airlines are mostly non-cash, as they are required under accounting rules to value their substantial foreign-currency debts at the end of every quarter.

舉例來說，中國國有航空公司的匯兌損失大多是非現金性的，因爲會計準則要求它們在每個季度末對大規模外幣債務進行估值。

China Southern had net debts of 104.35 billion yuan at the end of last year, while flag carrier Air China Ltd. had 111.60 billion yuan in net debt, of which U.S. dollars accounted for 70%.

截至去年末，南方航空的浄債務爲人民幣1,043.5億元；中國國際航空股份有限公司(Air China Ltd., 簡稱：中國國航)的浄債務規模爲人民幣1,116億元，其中美元債務佔70%。

'Exchange gains and losses will create some headlines on investor sentiment, but they really don't have cash-flow impact in the medium term so I would encourage people to look at operating profits,' said Mr. Xu at Barclays.

巴克萊的Patrick Xu表示，匯兌損益對投資者人氣有一定的影響，但中期內並不會真正影響企業現金流，因此他鼓勵大家關注營業利潤。

He said without the exchange impact, China Southern's first quarter profit likely reached 1.5 billion yuan, reversing from a 900 million yuan loss a year earlier, thanks to improving passenger demand.

他說，剔除匯兌因素，南方航空第一季度利潤可能達到人民幣15億元，扭轉了上年同期虧損人民幣9億元的局面，得益於出行需求增加。

Though exporters are likely the biggest winners of the declining home currency, many had also placed wagers on the currency's earlier appreciation, buying up leveraged yuan-derivative products and invested their idle cash in deposits.

儘管出口商很可能成爲本幣貶值的最大贏家，但很多出口商此前還是押注了人民幣早先的升值勢頭，買入了人民幣槓桿衍生品並將閒散現金轉爲人民幣存款。

But as the currency began to depreciate, losses have begun to mount and paper losses were estimated at $2.3 billion on total derivatives contracts valued at $150 billion, in mid-March when one dollar was trading at 6.1781 yuan, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of Asian currencies at Morgan Stanley.

不過，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亞洲匯率業務主管肯德里克(Geoff Kendrick)表示，隨着人民幣開始貶值，這些投資者的損失開始加大，3月中旬美元兌人民幣報6.1781元時，價值1,500億美元的全部衍生品合約的帳面損失估計在23億美元。

On Wednesday, the yuan touched 6.2228 against the U.S. dollar and the offshore yuan, traded mainly in Hong Kong, reached 6.2284, after hitting a 14-month high of 6.2311 on Tuesday. A higher number means a weaker currency against the dollar.

週三，美元兌人民幣一度觸及人民幣6.2228元，香港離岸人民幣市場，美元報人民幣6.2284元，週二一度觸及14個月高點人民幣6.2284元。

China's central bank set the daily reference rate for its currency at 6.1589 on Wednesday, the weakest level since September 2013. The central bank determines the rate each day, and then allows the currency to trade as much as 1% higher or lower.

中國央行週三將美元/人民幣中間價設在人民幣6.1589元，創下2013年9月份以來的最低水平。

Since 2005, it has gradually moved the rate up, allowing the yuan to strengthen 33%, but since mid-February this year it has pushed the rate lower, seeking to discourage speculators who have channeled cash into the country in hopes of benefiting from the currency's rise.

2005年以來，中國央行逐步推動人民幣走高，人民幣累計升值了33%，但自今年2月中旬以來，中國央行開始拉低人民幣匯率，希望藉此將投機人士擠出市場。這些投機者此前將大批資金投資人民幣市場，希望從人民幣升值中獲利。