近日匯率暴跌 人民幣爲何不再升值

After nearly a decade in which robust trade surpluses underpinned reliable appreciation of China’s currency, the renminbi is under pressure from a bout of capital outflow and the knock-on effects of falls in the euro, yen and emerging market currencies.
The renminbi has fallen 0.7 per cent so far this year to about Rmb6.25 per US dollar, following a drop of 2.4 per cent in 2014 — its first full year of significant depreciation since the central bank ended its strict dollar peg in 2005.
Yet the fall has occurred in spite of a swelling of China’s trade surplus, which propelled the renminbi’s 37 per cent rise between 2005 and 2013.
In December China posted its second-biggest monthly trade surplus on record, but foreign exchange purchases by its banks — a rough proxy for capital inflows — fell Rmb118bn ($19bn), the largest monthly decline on record.
Ordinarily a trade surplus leads to larger bank forex purchases, as exporters swap dollars from overseas customers for local currency. But exporters expect the renminbi to fall and are no longer converting dollar receipts, analysts say. In addition investment-linked forex outflows are offsetting the impact of inflows from trade.
According to currency traders the trade surplus is no longer the driving force behind exchange rate movements and capital flows. Instead expectations of rising US interest rates, combined with quantitative easing by European and Japanese central banks, have propelled outflows from emerging markets and into dollar assets.
“It used to be everyone just looked at trade data. Now people are looking at the interest rates and the euro,” says a trader at a small Chinese commercial bank in Shanghai.
Indeed the latest bout of weakness shows that in spite of strict capital controls, which limit the ability of short-term funds to slosh in and out of the country, China is not immune to the forces that have battered other emerging market currencies.
After years in which investors clamoured to find ways to circumvent controls and bring money into the country, funds are flowing in the opposite direction. Outbound foreign direct investment outstripped inbound FDI for the first time last year, a trend that is set to accelerate as Chinese companies increase overseas acquisitions.
Financial outflows are also picking up. China posted a combined $25bn deficit on the financial account in the second and third quarters, balance of payments data show. Fourth-quarter data are expected to show further outflows.
“Renminbi weakness has further to run,” says Wang Yifeng, head of investment at Yaozhi Asset Management in Shanghai. “Europe, China and emerging markets are all showing economic weakness, while the US is outperforming. The link to the dollar’s global strength is very intimate.”
Consensus forecasts have the renminbi at 6.4 to 6.5 by the year-end, a fall of 3-5 per cent from last year’s close.
Analysts say the reversal of expectations for the currency partially explains the lack of enthusiasm for the much-vaunted Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Two months after the launch of a programme that offers foreign investors unprecedented access to the Shanghai stock market — and in spite of the world-beating performance of mainland shares — less than a third of the Rmb300bn quota has been used.
To be sure, the renminbi’s fall is tiny compared with other currencies such as the euro, yen and Singapore dollar. Indeed, in spite of the renminbi’s decline against the dollar, its nominal effective exchange rate — a gauge of its value against a trade-weighted basket of currencies — rose 10 per cent in the second half of last year, data from the Bank for International Settlements show.
Some analysts consider the renminbi’s fall an intentional act by the People’s Bank of China, which is marching into a currency war to defend export competitiveness. But the drop in foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter last year suggests that the central bank may have intervened to prop up the currency, rather than drive it down.
The PBoC has consistently set its daily midpoint price stronger than the spot rate, a further signal that authorities do not want the currency to fall sharply.
Andrew Tilton, chief Asia economist at Goldman Sachs, says policy makers are unlikely to pursue a weaker currency because of the knock-on effects such a move would have on Beijing’s reform efforts.
“It is inconsistent with some of the other policy goals they have, such as wanting the renminbi to be used more broadly as an international currency, and wanting foreigners to invest in the stock market,” he says.

在將近10年的時間裏，中國大額貿易順差一直支撐着人民幣穩步升值。如今人民幣卻面臨着貶值壓力，這種壓力來自資金外流，以及歐元、日元和新興市場貨幣貶值導致的連鎖反應。
今年迄今，人民幣匯率下跌0.7%，至1美元兌6.25元人民幣上下。2014年人民幣匯率已下跌了2.4%，這是自2005年中國放棄盯住美元匯率制度以來，首次出現全年大幅下跌。
這輪貶值發生在中國貿易順差增長的背景下，而在2005年到2013年期間，貿易順差推動人民幣匯率累計上升了37%。
2014年12月，中國取得有記錄以來第二大月度貿易順差，而中國各銀行的外匯購買量——這一指標可粗略衡量資金流入規模——卻減少了1180億元人民幣（合190億美元），這是有記錄以來的最大月度跌幅。
通常，由於出口商需要把收自境外客戶的美元換成人民幣，貿易順差會導致銀行買入的外匯增加。然而，分析師表示，在出口商預計人民幣會下跌的情況下，他們不再把收到的美元換成人民幣。此外，以投資爲目的的外匯流出，也對貿易所產生的流入起到了抵消作用。
根據外匯交易員的說法，貿易順差不再是匯率波動和資金流動的主要推動因素。與此相反，市場對美國的加息預期，以及歐洲和日本央行的量化寬鬆舉措，推動資金流出新興市場、流向美元資產。
上海某小型中資商業銀行的一名交易員表示：“過去所有人都只關注貿易數據。如今，人們在關注利率和歐元行情。”
事實上，最新一輪人民幣貶值表明，雖然中國實行嚴格資本管制，限制短期資金流入和流出中國，但對於過去曾衝擊其他新興市場貨幣的因素，中國已不具有免疫力。
很多年來，投資者一直想方設法規避資本管制，將資金投入中國。如今，資金卻在以相反的方向流動。去年，中國對外直接投資規模首次超過了所吸引的外商直接投資(FDI)。隨着中國企業海外併購的增多，這一趨勢將會加速。
資金外流也在加速。中國的國際收支平衡表數據顯示，2季度和3季度金融賬戶赤字總計近250億美元。4季度數據預計將顯示資金外流加劇。
“人民幣還會繼續走弱。”上海耀之資產管理(Yaozhi Asset Management)投資交易總監王影峯說，“歐洲、中國和其他新興市場的經濟都出現了疲軟，而美國一枝獨秀。這與美元相對全球其他貨幣走強密切相關。”
人們普遍預計，到今年年底，人民幣兌美元匯率會達到6.4至6.5，比去年末下跌3%至5%。
分析師表示，人民幣升值預期的轉向，部分解釋了爲什麼市場對高調啓動的“滬港通”項目熱情不高。這個讓境外投資者首次能夠直接投資滬市的項目開通已有兩個月，並且中國內地股票的表現位於全世界前列，然而滬股通3000億元人民幣的總額度只用掉了不到三分之一。
當然，相對於歐元、日元和新加坡元等其他貨幣，人民幣跌幅是很小的。事實上，國際清算銀行(BIS)數據顯示，儘管人民幣對美元下跌，但人民幣名義有效匯率去年下半年上升了10%。
一些分析師認爲人民幣下跌是中國央行(PBoC)有意爲之，是爲了維護出口競爭力打的貨幣戰。但去年4季度外匯儲備減少，顯示央行或許曾有意通過干預推高、而非打壓人民幣幣值。
中國央行持續將每日人民幣匯率中間價設在即期匯率以上，進一步顯示當局不希望看到人民幣大幅下跌。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席亞洲經濟學家安德魯•蒂爾頓(Andrew Tilton)表示，政策制定者不太可能人爲推動人民幣貶值，因爲這樣做會波及北京方面的改革努力。
他說：“這與他們的其他政策目標是不一致的，比如讓人民幣在國際上得到更廣泛使用，以及吸引境外投資者到中國股市投資。”