人民幣走低加劇市場對中國經濟憂慮

The pace of China’s falling currency, now at its lowest level in nearly five years, has raised the prospect of renewed intervention by the central bank as Beijing seeks to control its fragile exchange rate policy.

已經處於近五年最低位的人民幣匯率走低的速度，引發了中國央行再度干預的前景。目前北京方面正尋求控制其脆弱的匯率政策。

The sharp decline in the renminbi has put investors on notice that the Chinese economy, a key engine of global growth, may be slowing at a faster rate than previously forecast.

人民幣近日的大幅下跌使投資者意識到，身爲全球增長重要引擎的中國經濟，可能正以高於預測的速度放緩。

Investors are worried that an unexpectedly fast depreciation will further destabilise China’s economy. Some also fear it could trigger a wave of competitive devaluations across the region.

投資者擔心，人民幣若發生意外快速的貶值，將進一步破壞中國經濟的穩定。還有人擔心，這可能在整個地區引發一波競爭性貶值。

“During our investor meetings in December, the Most significant risk that investors were worried about was a substantial devaluation of the renminbi,” said Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs’ chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist.

“在12月舉行的投資者會議期間，投資者擔心的最重大風險就是人民幣大幅貶值，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)亞太區首席股票策略師慕天輝(Timothy Moe)表示。

Traders are selling the renminbi in the open market, and this week’s drop of 2 per cent has intensified pressure on other emerging market currencies, particularly in Asia. It has also spurred selling of US and European stocks.

交易員正在公開市場上出售人民幣，而本週人民幣貶值2%加大了其他新興市場貨幣所受的壓力，特別是在亞洲。這也加劇了美國和歐洲股市的拋售。

The People’s Bank of China believes its overvalued currency is hurting its competitiveness and is trying to boost its slowing economy via a weaker currency. The central bank set weaker trading bands for the currency, but it is mindful of avoiding a repeat of the global market turmoil that was triggered in August when the renminbi weakened sharply.

中國人民銀行(PBoC)認爲人民幣估值過高，損害了中國的競爭力，這家央行正試圖通過貨幣貶值來提振中國不斷放緩的經濟。中國央行爲人民幣設定了較弱的交易區間，但它注意避免重演去年8月的情形，當時人民幣大幅走軟，引發了全球市場動盪。

China won reserve currency status in late November from the IMF. The widening gap between the onshore and offshore rates suggests, however, the renminbi is in fact not “freely usable” as the IMF requires.

中國在去年11月下旬從國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)爭取到儲備貨幣地位。不過，在岸和離岸匯率之間不斷擴大的差距似乎表明，人民幣其實達不到“可自由使用”的IMF要求。

Traders outside China are pricing in further weakness for the currency, testing the resolve of the central bank and its desire for an orderly depreciation.

中國境外的交易員正在價格上計入人民幣將進一步走低，考驗央行的決心及其對於有序貶值的願望。

Commerzbank’s emerging market strategist Peter Kinsella said this week’s renminbi weakness had been anything but orderly and could force the central bank to intervene. “Let’s be blunt: the central bank can intervene very aggressively if and when they choose,” he said.

德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)新興市場策略師彼得金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示，本週人民幣的弱勢絕非有序，可能迫使中國央行出手干預。“說白了：中國央行可以在它選擇的時機進行規模很大的干預，”他表示。

Signs of the PBoC seeking to reassert control emerged after foreign banks were last month suspended from trading foreign exchange in China.

中國央行尋求重新確立控制的跡象包括，上月在華外資銀行被暫停外匯交易資格。

Several of the biggest foreign banks in the renminbi market had been suspended, people familiar with the situation said. They said this appeared to be an attempt by Beijing to close the gap that has widened between the price of onshore and offshore rates to a new low.

知情人士透露，人民幣市場上幾家最大的外資銀行已被暫停資格。他們表示，這似乎是北京方面縮小在岸和離岸匯率差距的企圖，這個差距近期擴大。

China wanted to stop banks arbitraging the spread between the two markets for its currency, one of the people said.

其中一人表示，中國官方希望阻止銀行利用人民幣在岸和離岸匯率之間的價差進行套利。

The renminbi fell 0.5 per cent yesterday, its lowest level since March 2011 .

人民幣昨日下跌0.5%，至2011年3月以來的最低水平。