德國工業界擔心特朗普引發貿易戰

Donald Trump’s America First policy could prompt China to dump cheap goods in Europe, triggering retaliation by Brussels,

德國工業界領導人表示，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的美國優先(America First)政策可能促使中國在歐洲傾銷廉價商品，從而引發歐盟(EU)的報復。

German industrial leaders say, in a stark warning of the potential knock-on effects of US protectionism on the global economy.

這是有關美國保護主義對全球經濟產生潛在連帶效應的嚴重警告。

If Trump imposes punitive duties on China, that could lead to massive diversions of trade flows towards Europe,

一旦特朗普對中國徵收懲罰性關稅，那可能會導致貿易大舉向歐洲分流。

said Ulrich Ackermann, head of trade at the VDMA, the German machine tools association, one of the country’s most influential trade bodies.

德國機械設備製造業聯合會(VDMA)主席烏爾裏希.阿克曼(Ulrich Ackermann)表示, VDMA是德國最有影響力的行業組織之一。

They’ll look around for other markets, and their attention is bound to shift to Europe.

它們將尋找其他市場，它們的注意力必然會向歐洲轉移。

Then we must be able to protect our markets.

屆時我們必須能夠保護我們的市場。

China already runs a EURO180bn trade surplus with the EU.

中國目前對歐盟的貿易順差已高達1800億歐元。

Germany’s business and political elite have been rocked by the results of the US election and the Brexit referendum,

美國大選和英國退歐公投的結果，令德國商界和政界精英十分不安。

as fears grow that the popular mood in the west has shifted decisively against free trade and open borders, and that any protectionist moves by the incoming US administration could spark a trade war.

越來越多的人擔心西方的民意已明確轉向反對自由貿易和開放邊境，擔心即將上任的美國新一屆政府的任何保護主義措施可能會引發貿易戰。

That could be disastrous for the German economy, where almost one in four jobs depends on exports.

這種局面對德國經濟可能會是災難性的，因爲德國每四個工作崗位就有一個依賴出口。

German manufacturers export 50 per cent of the goods they produce abroad.

德國製造商生產的產品中，50%會出口海外。

Berlin watched with alarm as Mr Trump announced last week that he would kill the Trans Pacific Partnership on his first day in office.

當特朗普上週宣佈他會在上任首日廢除《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》(TPP)時，德國政府感到震驚。

During his election campaign, he also threatened to impose punitive tariffs on China to curb the country’s bilateral trade surplus with the US, which is running at close to $400bn a year.

特朗普在競選時還曾威脅要對中國徵收懲罰性關稅，以限制中國對美國的雙邊貿易順差——這一順差目前爲每年近4000億美元。

His team have since played down the prospect of a blanket tax.

自那以來，特朗普團隊已淡化了徵收全面關稅的可能性。

Meanwhile, TTIP, a big trade deal between the US and Europe, is also close to collapse.

與此同時，美國和歐洲之間的大規模貿易協議《跨大西洋貿易與投資夥伴關係協定》(TTIP)也接近夭折。

Concern is growing that a rollback of free trade could directly affect German companies selling into the US market.

越來越多的人擔心，自由貿易的倒退可能會直接影響行銷美國市場的德國企業。

Last year, the US became Germany’s most important trade partner for the first time, knocking France into second place.

去年，美國首次成爲德國最重要的貿易伙伴，將法國擠到了第二位。

German companies exported goods worth EURO114bn to the US in 2015.

德國企業2015年對美國出口的商品價值爲1140億歐元。

There are fears that Germany, which like China runs a massive trade surplus with the world, might become a target of Mr Trump’s protectionism.

還有人擔心，德國與中國類似，對全球處於大規模貿易順差狀態，這令它可能會成爲特朗普保護政策的目標。

Last year the surplus jumped to EURO247.8bn from EURO213.6bn in 2014.

去年，德國對外貿易順差從2014年的2136億歐元躍升至2478億歐元。

Germany’s wider current account surplus also hit a record EURO249.1bn.

而德國的總體經常項目盈餘也達到創紀錄的2491億歐元。