與中國打貿易戰 特朗普手裏有多少彈藥

SHANGHAI — As a candidate, Donald J. Trump aimed some of his most blistering words at China, declaring that we already have a trade war and suggesting ominously that we have the power over China, economic power.

上海——作爲一名候選人，唐納德•J•特朗普(Donald J. Trump)將一些最激烈的言辭拋向了中國，宣稱我們已經處在一場貿易戰中，還帶威脅性地表示，我們擁有壓倒中國的力量，經濟力量。

As president of the United States, Mr Trump can use trade — a cornerstone of his populist rise — as a weapon, with the potential to drastically reshape the world’s two largest economies, as well as the companies, industries and workers who depend on their hundreds of billions of dollars in closely linked goods.

作爲美國的總統，特朗普則有可能把貿易——他的民粹主義崛起的一塊基石——當作一件武器，大大改變世界上最大的兩個經濟體，也會給依賴環環相連的數千億美元商品貿易的企業、行業及工人帶去改變。

But neither side may win.

然而，結果有可能是兩敗俱傷。

Cutting off trade will not bring back the bulk of American manufacturing jobs lost to China in previous decades as it became the world’s factory floor.

切斷貿易，無法挽回美國在之前幾十年因中國成爲世界工廠而失去的製造業工作。

Already, some industries that left the United States years ago, such as garment making and some light manufacturing, are now leaving China for even cheaper places.

數年前離開美國一些行業，比如服裝製造和一些輕工業，現在已經開始離開中國，轉向到成本更低的地方。

An aggressive stance with China also risks antagonizing an authoritarian government with its own brand of economic nationalism.

對中國採取強硬立場，還有可能惹惱一個本身也有經濟民族主義名聲的威權政府。

Yet the unsettling reality for Beijing is that Mr Trump has a variety of ways to get back at China for trade practices.

不過對北京來說，讓人不安的現實是特朗普有各種各樣的方式可以就貿易行爲對中國進行報復。

That he, his supporters or people in the affected industries view as unfair.

在他、他的支持者或處在受影響行業的人看來，那些貿易是不公平的。

China sells a large array of goods to the United States that he can aim at for higher tariffs.

中國向美國銷售大量的商品，他可以對這些商品徵收更高的關稅。

The opportunities for China to retaliate would be more limited.

中國進行報復的機會將更加有限。

In the most basic terms, China buys less from the United States.

簡單地講，原因是中國從美國購買的東西比較少。

But China could make some strategic strikes at targets like Boeing, American automakers and American farmers.

但中國可以對波音(Boeing)公司、美國汽車製造商和美國農民等目標實施一些戰略性打擊。

Beijing exerts tight control over China’s airlines, for example, and sometimes steers contracts to Airbus, Boeing’s European rival, when officials feel that Washington is uncooperative.

比如，北京對中國的航空公司實施嚴格的控制，偶爾在官員們感覺華盛頓不太配合的時候，轉而和波音在歐洲的對手空中客車(Airbus)籤合同。

Boeing complains, ‘We have been pretty good friends with China.

波音公司抱怨，‘我們和中國一直是很好的朋友。

Why are we always a target?’ said He Weiwen, a former Chinese commerce ministry official who is now the co-director of the China-U.S.-E.U.

爲什麼總拿我們當靶子？’曾在中國商務部擔任官員的何偉文說。

Study Center at the influential China Association of International Trade in Beijing.

他現在是頗具影響力的中國國際貿易學會下屬的中美歐研究中心聯席主席。

Or China could wreak havoc on the vast yet delicate supply chain behind a wide range of products like iPhones and auto parts.

中國還可以嚴重破壞支撐iPhone和汽車配件等許多產品的龐大而脆弱的供應鏈。

Six years ago, Chinese restrictions on exports of obscure yet vital minerals led to a global outcry by manufacturers.

六年前，中國對鮮爲人知但十分重要的礦物出口進行限制，曾引發全球製造商的強烈抗議。

Early indications are that trade could take a more prominent place on the White House’s China agenda, which under President Obama was dominated by Beijing’s territorial claims in East Asia and its influence over North Korea.

初步跡象表明，貿易可能會在白宮的中國日程上佔據更顯著的位置。而在奧巴馬總統的任期內，這個日程主要被北京在東亞的領土主張及它對朝鮮的影響佔據。

In a strong signal, Mr Trump has turned to Dan DiMicco, a longtime steel executive and trade critic, to oversee trade issues during his administration’s transition.

特朗普已經準備讓長期擔任鋼鐵企業主管、同時也是貿易批評人士的丹•迪米科(Dan DiMicco)，在他的政府實現過渡期間負責貿易方面的事務，這釋放出了比較強烈的信號。

Mr DiMicco writes a personal blog, liberally sprinkled with exclamation points, that blames America’s industrial decline on cheating by trade partners, particularly China.

在滿是驚歎號的個人博客裏，迪米科將美國工業的衰退歸罪於貿易伙伴的欺騙行爲，尤其是中國。

Hillary Clinton has claimed Trump’s trade policies will start a ‘Trade War’ but what she fails to recognize is we are already in one, he wrote on his blog last summer.

希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)說特朗普的貿易政策會引發‘貿易戰’，但她沒有意識到我們已經處於貿易戰中了，去年夏天他在自己的博客上寫道。

Trump clearly sees it and he will work to put an end to China’s ‘Mercantilist Trade War’! A war it has been waging against us for nearly 2 decades!

特朗普顯然明白這一點，他會努力終結中國的‘重商主義貿易戰’！一場針對我們進行了近20年的戰爭！

China over the last two days has emphasized that a healthy relationship would benefit both sides.

過去兩天，中國在強調健康的中美關係會讓雙方都受益。

On Thursday, Lu Kang, a spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry, said, It is in the common interests of both countries to develop a long-term, stable and prosperous trading relationship, and any American politician would take a policy in the interest of his country and the American people.

中國外交部發言人陸慷週四稱，發展長期健康穩定的中美關係，符合兩國人民根本利益，還表示美國任何一個政治家，只要從本國人民利益出發，都會採取一個有利於中美經貿合作的政策。

Mr Trump’s views veer widely from the free-trade positions of the Republican Party in recent years and signal a return to the more hawkish positions of the Reagan administration, which repeatedly went after Japan on trade issues.

最近幾年，特朗普的觀點大大偏離了共和黨自由貿易的立場，顯示出向里根政府時期更加強硬的立場迴歸的跡象，後者曾就貿易問題多次對日本採取行動。

Since President Ronald Reagan, Republican and Democratic administrations have been reluctant to confront countries that may be subsidizing or dumping exports, either because the evidence is unclear or because of a risk of damaging diplomatic or strategic relations.

自羅納德•里根(Ronald Reagan)總統之後，共和黨和民主黨政府一直都不大願意對抗有可能在補貼或傾銷出口產品的國家，要麼是因爲證據不太確鑿，要麼因爲存在破壞外交關係或戰略關係的風險。

This is the kind of stuff you learn in law school, and in the early days of your law career, said Alan H. Price, a longtime lawyer for the American steel and aluminum industries at Wiley Rein.

這是你在法學院要學的東西，是在你從事法律工作初期就該知道的，在衛理律師事務所(Wiley Rein)美國鋼鐵和鋁業部的資深律師艾倫•H•普賴斯(Alan H. Price)說。

When used, the measures were sometimes deemed ineffective.

在使用時，這些措施有時被認爲並不起作用。

In one rare example, President Obama used his powers to impose tariffs of up to 35 percent on imports of Chinese tires soon after he took office.

一個罕見的例子是，奧巴馬總統上臺後沒多久，便動用自己的權力對從中國進口的輪胎徵收最高達35%的關稅。

The tariffs prompted China to impose steep tariffs on American chicken meat and automotive products.

此舉導致中國對美國的雞肉和汽車產品徵收高額關稅。

Both countries complained to the World Trade Organization, which mostly sided with the United States.

兩國均向通常都站在美國一邊的世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)發起申訴。

The case resulted in the United States producing more tires, but imports from other countries rose even faster.

此案導致美國自產的輪胎增加，但從其他國家進口的輪胎增加得甚至更快。

And the Obama administration later became more cautious about challenging China with trade restrictions.

後來，奧巴馬政府對利用貿易限制挑戰中國的做法變得更加謹慎。

Any trade actions by Mr Trump would face limits.

特朗普採取的任何貿易行動都會面臨限制。

This year, he mentioned imposing a tariff of 45 percent on all imports from China.

今年，他曾提出對來自中國的所有進口貨物徵收45%的關稅。

But he later avoided specifics — and he has limited power to do so anyway.

但後來，他避免談及細節，而且他也沒有多大的權力可以這麼做。

The law allows him to impose tariffs of no more than 15 percent, and for as long as 150 days, on all imports, unless a national emergency is declared.

法律允許他只能在最長150天的時間裏，對所有進口貨物徵收最高15%的關稅，除非宣佈國家進入緊急狀態。

Other laws allow him to impose tariffs on targeted goods.

其他法律規定，他只能對目標商品徵收關稅。

Should Mr Trump want to signal an aggressive stance quickly, he could move against imports of steel and aluminum from China.

如果特朗普想迅速發出姿態強硬的信號，他可能會對從中國進口的鋼鐵和鋁採取行動。

The Obama administration has been preparing to file a World Trade Organization case against China over claims that it subsidized aluminum exports.

奧巴馬政府一直以中國補貼鋁出口爲由，準備向世貿組織提起訴訟。

And the United States, Japan and the European Union already complain that Chinese government subsidies have produced a bloated domestic steel industry that they say dumps millions of tons of excess goods on world markets each year.

此外，美國、日本和歐盟已經提出抗議，稱中國政府的補貼導致其國內鋼鐵行業產能過剩，每年向全球市場傾銷數百萬噸剩餘商品。

China is more vulnerable given the sheer amount of stuff it sells to America.

鑑於其出口至美國的商品數量，中國更容易受影響。

For more than a decade, China has consistently exported about $4 worth of goods to the United States for each $1 of goods that it imports.

十多年來，中國每從美國進口價值一美元的商品，便向其出口大約四美元的商品。

Exports to the United States represent about 4 percent of the Chinese economy; American exports to China are only about two-thirds of 1 percent of the United States economy.

面向美國的出口佔中國經濟的大約4%，而對中國的出口在美國經濟中所佔的比例僅爲1%的三分之二。

We don’t have many things in the toolbox for retaliation, because we export more than we import, said Mr He, the former Chinese commerce ministry official.

我們沒有多少可以用來報復的手段，因爲我們的出口規模大於進口規模，中國前商務部官員何偉文說。

Still, China could inflict pain on sensitive areas that provide American jobs, like Boeing’s jetliners.

但中國仍可以給一些爲美國提供就業崗位的敏感領域造成痛苦，比如波音的噴氣式客機。

Boeing declined to comment except to say, We congratulate President-elect Trump and newly elected members of Congress and look forward to working with them to make sure we continue to grow the global economy and protect our people.

波音拒絕對此予以置評，只是說，我們向候任總統特朗普與新當選的國會議員表示祝賀，同時期待與他們合作，確保我們能繼續推動全球經濟增長，保護我們的民衆。

General Motors and Ford Motor consider China a big contributor to sales.

通用汽車(General Motors)和福特汽車(Ford Motor)視中國爲一個銷量貢獻大國。

They mostly manufacture in China to supply the domestic market.

爲了供應中國國內市場，他們主要在中國境內生產。

But much of the design and engineering work is still done in the United States.

但大量設計和工程工作仍在美國進行。

China could hurt the automakers by adopting domestic policies that help their big European rivals, notably Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz.

中國可能會通過採取有利於美國車企強大的歐洲競爭對手，尤其是大衆(Volkswagen)和梅賽德斯-奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)的國內政策，來打擊美國車企。

Other American companies may be less opposed to trade limits than in the past.

其他美國公司也許不會像過去那麼反對貿易限制。

Some American companies have been struggling to sell in China.

一些美國公司一直難以在中國打開銷路。

Beijing has steered contracts to Chinese telecommunications companies after Edward Snowden’s revelations about American intelligence gathering in China.

在愛德華•斯諾登(Edward Snowden)爆出美國在中國蒐集情報後，北京把合同都給了中國的電信企業。

And Chinese state-owned enterprises have shifted much of their investment banking business from Wall Street to homegrown rivals.

此外，中國的國有企業也把大量投行業務從華爾街轉移給了本土競爭對手。

American farmers have welcomed Chinese purchases, but it is unclear how badly they could be hurt by any trade action.

美國的農民歡迎中國購買，但尚不清楚任何貿易糾紛對他們的傷害可能會有多大。

Chicken meat, soybeans, corn and other foodstuffs are commodities traded in world markets, and farmers are often able to sell elsewhere.

雞肉、大豆、玉米和其他食物是在全球市場上交易的大宗商品，農民通常能夠把它們賣到其他地方去。

Chinese goods have long helped keep prices down for Americans.

對美國民衆來說，中國商品長期以來幫助抑制物價。

But Chinese exports play a shrinking role in holding down prices as labor costs rise in China and as rivals like Indonesia, Vietnam and India expand manufacturing.

但隨着中國國內人工成本攀升，且印尼、越南和印度等競爭對手的製造業擴張，中國的出口商品在抑制物價方面的作用正在減弱。

China’s biggest potential weapon is to disrupt the supply chains of multinationals by halting exports of crucial materials or components.

中國最大的潛在武器是通過暫停出口關鍵材料或零部件，中斷跨國公司的供應鏈。

But that could damage China’s reputation as a reliable supplier.

但這可能有損中國作爲一個可靠的供應國的名聲。

I don’t think we will go that far at the moment, because there is a lot of room to negotiate, Mr He said.

我目前認爲我們不會走到那一步，因爲還有很大的談判空間，何偉文說。

If we are forced too much, nothing can be excluded.

如果到了萬不得已的時候，什麼都可以考慮。