特朗普貿易大棒瞄準中國戰略性行業

After 14 months in office Donald Trump is delivering on his campaign promise to crack down on what he has long labelled China’s unfair trade practices by rolling out plans for new tariffs on up to $60bn in Chinese imports and other sanctions against Beijing.

在上任14個月後，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)要兌現他的競選承諾了，即打擊他長期以來所稱的中國不公平貿易做法。他宣佈計劃對高達600億美元的中國進口商品徵收新關稅，並將採取其他對華制裁措施。

That has provoked fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, with China likely to retaliate against politically sensitive US exports such as soyabeans grown in farm states that swung behind Mr Trump in the 2016 election.

這引發了人們對於全球頭兩大經濟體之間將爆發貿易戰的擔憂，因爲中國可能會對具有政治敏感性的美國出口商品進行報復，比如一些農業州出產的大豆，在2016年大選中，這些搖擺州選擇了支持特朗普。

Here are the key points:

以下是一些要點：

There will be tariffs on up to $60bn in Chinese imports

美國將對高達600億美元的中國進口商品徵收新關稅

The plan signed by Mr Trump on Thursday calls for tariffs on up to $60bn in Chinese imports in key strategic sectors identified by Beijing in its “Made in China 2025” plan. The move is in response to what the administration says has been a co-ordinated strategy by Beijing to force US companies to hand over intellectual property to do business in China.

特朗普週四簽署的這項方案，要求對北京方面在《中國製造2025》中確定的關鍵戰略領域的中國進口產品徵收關稅，涉及年度進口額將高達600億美元。此舉是爲了迴應美國政府所稱的中方以下做法：中國政府採取協調一致的策略，迫使美國企業爲在中國經營而把知識產權轉移給中方。

The 10 sectors identified in that plan are: advanced IT products; automated machine tools and robotics; aerospace and aeronautical equipment; maritime equipment; modern rail equipment; electric and other “new energy” vehicles; power equipment; agricultural equipment; “new materials”; and biopharmaceutical and other advanced medical products.

該方案中確定的10個領域是：先進信息技術產品；自動化機牀和機器人；航空航天裝備；海洋工程裝備；現代軌道交通裝備；電動和其他“新能源”車輛；電力裝備；農業機械裝備；“新材料”；生物醫藥和其他高性能醫療器械。

A specific list of products to be hit with the tariffs is due to be presented within 15 days. It will be subject to a public comment period after that. Not likely to be included, US officials indicated, are many consumer electronics products, such as iPhones.

美國將在15天內列出一份具體的擬加徵關稅的中國產品清單。之後，美國將就該清單徵求公衆意見。美國官員表示，很多消費電子產品都不會被列入清單中，比如iphone。

The US Treasury will be drafting investment restrictions

美國財政部將草擬投資限制措施

Mr Trump’s move comes as many in Washington are growing increasingly concerned over China’s efforts to acquire US technology by buying US companies and investing in tech start-ups.

特朗普採取行動的背景是，華盛頓許多人對中國試圖通過收購美國企業和投資美國科技初創企業來獲取美國技術的做法越來越感到擔憂。

The order gives the US Treasury 60 days to identify how to create a regime to help limit Chinese investments in key sectors. It will sit alongside the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US, which already scrutinises inbound investments for national security implications.

他指示美國財政部在60天內明確如何建立一個機制，幫助限制中國在美國關鍵領域的投資。該機制將與美國外國投資委員會(Cfius)協同合作，後者本就負責審查外來投資對國家安全的影響。

The new regime is likely to establish new tests, such as whether US companies can invest freely in the same sectors in China. It also may target state-owned companies for additional scrutiny.

新機制可能會包括一些新測試，比如美國公司是否可以不受限制地在中國的相同行業進行投資。它還可能針對國有企業實施額外審查。

Together with reforms of Cfius now being pursued by Congress, the new measures could present major new barriers to Chinese foreign direct investment in the US, which was worth almost $30bn last year and reached a record $45bn in 2016.

這些新措施，加上美國國會正推動對美國外國投資委員會進行的改革，可能使中國對美直接投資面臨新的重大壁壘。去年中國對美國的直接投資接近300億美元，在2016年則創下450億美元的歷史紀錄。

The US plans to take China to the WTO over its technology licensing rules

美國打算就中國的技術許可規則在世貿組織起訴中國

The US argues that China unfairly keeps US tech companies out of China by discriminating against them in its technology licensing regulations. Now, it wants to take them to the international trade court to get Beijing to stop.

美國辯稱，中國的技術許可法規歧視美國科技企業，不公平地把它們拒之門外。現在，美國想就此向這個國際貿易法庭起訴，促使中國停止上述做法。

Mr Trump has been a regular critic of the World Trade Organization. On Thursday, he said again that the US had been untreated unfairly by the body for years. But in a concession to allies like the EU and Japan, Mr Trump ordered US trade officials to launch a case against China over those licensing rules.

特朗普經常批評世界貿易組織。週四，他再次表示，美國多年來一直遭到該組織的不公正對待。但在對歐盟(EU)和日本等盟友讓步的同時，特朗普命令美國貿易官員就技術許可規則對中國提起訴訟。

One wrinkle: the case is likely to take more than a year to litigate and it comes as the US is trying to force reform in the WTO’s dispute settlement system by blocking the appointment of new appellate judges.

有個小問題是，可能需要一年多時間才能就該案提起訴訟，因爲美國正試圖通過阻撓任命新的上訴法官，強勢推動世貿組織爭端解決機制的改革。

China is likely to retaliate

中國可能會進行報復

What has many trade experts concerned is the risk that the Trump administration’s tariffs could lead to a tit-for-tat retaliation between the world’s two largest economies.

令許多貿易專家擔心的是，特朗普政府的關稅可能導致全球兩個最大經濟體之間展開針鋒相對的報復行動。

Trade in goods alone between the US and China was worth more than $635bn last year, with US companies exporting a record $130bn in products to China.

去年，美中僅商品貿易額就超過6350億美元，美國企業對中國出口產品總額創下1300億美元的紀錄。

Beijing has made clear that it will not take any US action lightly and has already begun to point to potential targets such as Boeing aircraft and US soyabeans.

中國政府已明確表示，將嚴肅對待美國採取的任何行動，並已開始提到如波音(Boeing)飛機和美國大豆等潛在還擊目標。

“China is the largest export market for US aircraft and soybeans, and the second largest export market for automobiles and cotton,” the Chinese foreign ministry pointed out on Thursday.

“中國是美國飛機和大豆的第一大出口市場，也是汽車和棉花的第二大出口市場，”中國外交部週四指出。

US soyabean farmers, who have been losing market share to Brazil in recent years, are particularly concerned. The US last year exported $14bn in soyabeans to China. With many US farm communities already suffering the impact of lower commodity prices even a 10 per cent reduction in that number could be painful.

近年來不斷被巴西奪走市場份額的美國大豆農場主們尤爲擔憂。去年，美國向中國出口了140億美元的大豆。由於許多美國農業人口已因大宗商品價格下跌而受損，即便對華出口額下降10%，也可能給他們帶來痛苦。