特朗普的中國戰略:貿易戰還是競賽?

Donald Trump has revealed a national security strategy with a heavy emphasis on what his administration portrays as an existential economic competition with China.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)公佈了自己的國家安全戰略，其中重點強調了其領導的政府描繪的與中國之間關乎存亡的經濟競爭。

In a speech launching it on Monday the US president also made clear he had only one outcome in mind. “We are declaring that America is in the game and America is going to win,” he said.

在週一發佈上述戰略的演講中，美國總統還明確表示，他只牢記一個結果。他說：“我們宣佈美國加入了這場競賽，美國將贏得勝利。”

Parse the clues in the new strategy, however, and it looks like the recipe for a potentially damaging trade war between the world’s two largest economies, rather than a game. Yet also in there are messages meant to assuage the concerns of those who fear that Mr Trump is out to blow up the international order.

然而，分析這一新戰略中的種種暗示可以得出，它似乎將給世界最大兩個經濟體帶來一場具有潛在破壞性的貿易戰，而非一場競賽。但這一新戰略中也存在一些信號，意在緩解擔心特朗普將破壞國際秩序的人士的擔憂。

Here come the tariffs?.?.?.

關稅來了……

For most of the past year the Trump administration has been promising more tough action on trade than it has been able to deliver as the president’s campaign promises have quickly confronted real world complexities and consequences.

過去一年大部分時間，隨着總統的競選承諾迅速遭遇現實世界的種種複雜性和後果，特朗普政府雖然一直承諾在貿易問題上採取更多強硬行動，實際上卻沒能做到。

But that may be about to change. One of the key promises the new document makes is to deliver tougher enforcement of trade violations by economic rivals such as China, which amounts to code for applying punitive tariffs.

但上述情況或許即將改變。這份新文件作出的關鍵承諾之一，是將對中國等經濟競爭對手的貿易違規行爲採取更嚴格的強制措施，相當於暗示要徵收懲罰性關稅。

In the pipeline and facing deadlines in the coming weeks are a half dozen different ways in which the Trump administration could apply new tariffs on goods from China and other rivals.

正在準備中且在未來幾周面臨截止期限的是六項不同的調查，特朗普政府或將藉此對來自中國等競爭對手的商品徵收額外關稅。

Trade experts in Washington believe the conclusion of an investigation into China’s intellectual property theft and forced technology transfer policies is near.

華盛頓的貿易專家認爲，對中國的知識產權盜竊和強制技術轉讓政策的調查已經接近尾聲。

Facing deadlines in January are two separate national security investigations into imports of aluminium and steel that are expected to result in a mix of new tariffs and quotas.

將於明年1月截止的分別針對鋁和鋼材進口的兩項國家安全調查，預計將導致新的關稅和配額組合懲罰。

Also looming are presidential decisions on special “safeguard” investigations into imports of solar cells from China and washing machines made by South Korea’s LG and Samsung. A separate probe of imports of aluminium sheeting from China is getting under way and seems destined to lead to tariffs with the US commerce department having taken the rare step of bringing the complaint — making it plaintiff, prosecutor and judge all in one.

對從中國進口的太陽能電池和韓國LG、三星(Samsung)製造的洗衣機進行的特別“安全保障”調查，也即將迎來美國總統的決定。另一項針對從中國進口鋁板的調查正在進行中，而且似乎註定將導致提高關稅，原因是美國商務部此次罕見地親自提起訴訟——使其集原告、檢察官和法官三重身份於一身。

Brace yourself for more scrutiny of Chinese investment and the new IP wars

準備好迎接更多針對中國投資的審查和新的知識產權戰爭

The new document places a large emphasis on the importance of US intellectual property and introduces the idea of a “national security innovation base” comprised of everything from academia to tech companies.

新文件着重強調了美國知識產權的重要性，並引入“國家安全創新基礎”的理念——從學術界到科技公司無所不包。

“The genius of creative Americans, and the free system that enables them, is critical to American security and prosperity,” it declares.

文件宣稱：“具有創造性的美國人的天賦以及造就他們的自由制度，對美國的安全與繁榮至關重要。”

One way it proposes to protect that innovation base is strengthening the role of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or Cfius. The Trump administration has endorsed proposed bipartisan legislation that would expand the remit of Cfius, an inter-agency committee that reviews US acquisitions by foreign investors for potential national security threats, to overseas joint ventures involving US companies. Entering such joint ventures has long been part of doing business in China for many US companies that also are often forced to hand over important technologies to their local partners.

爲保護其創新基礎，美國提出了一項舉措，即強化美國外國投資委員會(CFIUS)的作用。特朗普政府已經支持兩黨的立法提案，該法案將擴大美國外國投資委員會的職權範圍至涉及美國公司的海外合資企業，該委員會是一個機構間委員會，目前負責審查外國投資者在美國的收購行爲是否會威脅到美國的國家安全。長久以來，很多美國公司都是通過設立合資企業在中國做生意，也時常被迫將重要的技術轉移給當地的合作伙伴。

Among the other measures floated in the new strategy document is restrictions on foreign students from “designated countries” who study science, engineering or other technology-related fields in the US. The goal: “To reduce economic theft by non-traditional intelligence collectors.”

新戰略文件中提出的其他舉措還包括對來自“特定國家”、在美國學習科學、工程或其他技術領域學科的海外學生施加限制。目標是：“減少非傳統情報收集者實施的經濟盜竊。”

Trump may be out to reform the multilateral system rather than blow it up

特朗普也許是想改革多邊體系，而不是要搞砸它

One of the biggest fears among policymakers that Mr Trump has helped unleash since he arrived on the global scene is that he is out to blow up the multilateral system that has helped preserve a relative economic peace for the past 70 years. Yet what emerged on Monday may offer some comfort.

自從特朗普進入全球視野以來，給政策制定者們帶來的最大擔憂之一，就是他執意要摧毀過去70年來維持着一種相對經濟和平的多邊體系。然而週一的這份戰略文件可能會令人們稍感安慰。

It is unclear how much standing one should give a policy document when it comes from a White House led by a notoriously erratic and instinctual president. But the new national security strategy at least foresees a role for the multilateral system, albeit one reformed to better serve the US.

目前還不清楚，對於一份由一個出了名地反覆無常、靠直覺行事的總統領導的白宮撰寫的政策文件，人們應該給予多少支持。但這份新的國家安全戰略至少預想了多邊體系的作用，儘管其設想的是一個改革後更好地爲美國服務的多邊體系。

“That economic system continues to serve our interests,” the authors of the new strategy write. “But it must be reformed to help American workers prosper, protect our innovation, and reflect the principles upon which that system was founded. Trading partners and international institutions can do more to address trade imbalances and adhere to and enforce the rules of the order.”

“這一經濟體系繼續服務於我們的利益，”新戰略的制定者們這樣寫道。“但它必須經過改革，以造福於美國的工人們，保護我們的創新成果，並體現作爲該體系基礎的原則。貿易伙伴與國際機構可以採取更多行動來解決貿易不平衡問題，遵守並執行秩序規則。”

They also call for the US to pursue its economic battles against countries such as China with the help of allies. “The US will engage industrialised democracies and other like-minded states to defend against the economic aggression, in all its forms, that threatens our common prosperity and security,” administration officials declare.

他們還呼籲美國聯合其盟友與中國等國家打經濟戰。“美國將與工業化的民主國家及其他志同道合的國家聯合起來，抵抗一切威脅到我們共同繁榮與安全的經濟侵略，”美國的政府官員們聲稱。

The first sign of that strategy emerged on the sidelines of a World Trade Organisation meeting last week when the US, EU and Japan announced they would work together on issues related to industrial overcapacity and forced technology transfers.

在上週世界貿易組織(WTO)的一次會議上，這一戰略初現端倪，美國、歐盟(EU)和日本在會議間隙宣稱，他們將共同應對與工業產能過剩及強制性技術轉移相關的一系列問題。

The question now is how long any such alliance will last, and if it will weather what increasingly looks like a brewing trade war.

現在的問題是，這種結盟會維持多久，以及這能否抵禦一場看起來蓄勢待發的貿易戰。