當特朗普引發憲法危機時

You have to sympathise with America’s 44th president. As post-presidencies go, Barack Obama’s would have been among the best — still young, massively in demand and happily married to someone with no plans to run for high office. Instead, he has been thrust back into a very unwelcome spotlight by Donald Trump. He is unlikely to leave it.

你必須對第44任美國總統表示同情。與以往的美國總統卸任時相比，巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)本應算極爲幸運的——仍然年輕、不愁去處、婚姻幸福、且妻子無意競選要職。然而，他卻被唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)以極爲討厭的方式重新推到聚光燈下。他不太可能輕易走出聚光燈。

Mr Obama may even be dragged into a constitutional crisis over Mr Trump’s claim that he personally ordered the wiretapping of the Trump campaign. To paraphrase the aphorism about war, Mr Obama may not be interested in Mr Trump. But Mr Trump is interested in him. You might say that he is obsessed.

由於特朗普聲稱奧巴馬親自下令竊聽特朗普的競選活動，奧巴馬甚至可能被拖入一場憲法危機。仿照有關戰爭的名言來說，奧巴馬或許對特朗普不感興趣。但特朗普對奧巴馬感興趣。你或許可以說他有點着魔了。

Mr Trump’s Obamaphobia stretches back years. In 2011, Mr Obama was forced to produce his long-form birth certificate to disprove Mr Trump’s claim that he was born in Kenya.

特朗普的“奧巴馬厭惡症”(Obamaphobia)可以追溯到多年前。2011年，奧巴馬被迫出示詳細的出生證明，來反駁特朗普聲稱他生於肯尼亞的說法。

At the time, most of us laughed off the property mogul’s claim as the publicity stunt of a crank. We laughed even louder when Mr Obama mocked Mr Trump at the White House correspondents’ dinner a few weeks later. The reality TV star, Mr Obama said, could finally get back to the things that matter, such as “did we fake the moon landing?” and “what really happened at Roswell [the site of an alleged UFO crash]?”

當時，我們大多數人把這位房地產大亨的說法當做奇葩作秀一笑了之。數週後當奧巴馬在白宮的記者晚宴上嘲諷特朗普時，我們笑得更大聲了。奧巴馬當時說，那位真人秀明星終於可以把注意力放回到有意義的事上了，比如“我們是不是僞造了登月”以及“羅斯威爾（Roswell，所謂UFO墜毀的地點）到底發生了什麼”？

Mr Obama’s humour was based on the quaint assumption that there was a clear boundary between grown-up politics and madcap conspiracy theories. The fact that he was at that moment weighing Osama bin Laden’s kill order retrospectively put a seal on the wit. By a horrendous twist of fate, the epistemological shoe is now on the other foot. The White House is now the source of “Elvis Presley faked his death”-type stories. In the past week, rightwing websites have published stories that the Federal Bureau of Investigation is about to arrest Mr Obama for illegal wiretapping, that a Floridian drug dealer whom Mr Obama pardoned had murdered his girlfriend, and that Mr Obama is plotting a coup to overthrow Mr Trump.

奧巴馬當時的幽默建立在這個傳統假設上：成熟的政治和瘋狂的陰謀論之間存在明顯的界限。當時他正在考慮殺死奧薩馬?本?拉登(Osama bin Laden)的命令，過後看來，這足以證明這一假設的正確。可怕的是，世易時移，認知這隻鞋如今穿在了另一個人的腳上。眼下白宮成了“貓王埃爾維斯?普雷斯利(Elvis Presley)僞造了自己的死”之類新聞的來源。過去一週，右翼網站發佈了這些新聞：聯邦調查局(FBI)即將以非法竊聽爲由逮捕奧巴馬，獲奧巴馬赦免的一名佛羅里達毒販謀殺了自己的女友，奧巴馬正密謀發動政變推翻特朗普。

On Tuesday Mr Trump tweeted that 122 Guantánamo Bay prisoners who had been released by Mr Obama were back on the battlefield. It was wildly inaccurate. Of the 714 former Guantánamo prisoners who have been transferred, 121 are fighting again — all but eight of whom were released by George W Bush. None of this can be laughed off. Millions of Americans believe such stories. More will come.

週二，特朗普在Twitter上表示，奧巴馬釋放的122名關塔那摩灣(Guantánamo Bay)囚犯返回了戰場。這一說法極不準確。在714名被移交的前關塔那摩灣囚犯中，121人再次參與了作戰——但除8人外其他人全部是小布什(George W. Bush)釋放的。我們無法對這些事情一笑置之。數百萬美國人相信了這些新聞。未來還會有更多這樣的事情。

The question is where it will lead. Mr Obama has remained silent. It would be better if he kept his powder dry. At some point, Mr Trump will provoke a genuine constitutional emergency. It could be in response to an actual terrorist attack or to a fake one. Or it could come about as a result of Mr Trump’s escalating battle with the “deep state” of intelligence agencies and bureaucrats whom he alleges are working with Mr Obama to destroy his presidency.

問題是形勢將如何發展。奧巴馬一直保持沉默。他最好隨時準備應戰。或遲或早，特朗普會引發一場真正的憲法危機。危機可能會在面臨一次真正或僞造的恐怖襲擊時爆發。導致危機爆發的還可能是特朗普與“暗深勢力”(deep state)——他聲稱正在與奧巴馬合作以摧毀他的總統任期的情報機構和官員——不斷升級的鬥爭。

Whatever the trigger, it will come. At that point, Mr Obama should combine with all living former presidents, including George Bushes junior and senior, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, to defend America’s constitutional liberties. It will be all the more powerful if each has kept his counsel until that point.

無論導火索是什麼，危機肯定會爆發。到那時，奧巴馬應該和所有在世的前總統（包括老布什、小布什、比爾?克林頓(Bill Clinton)以及吉米?卡特(Jimmy Carter)）聯手，捍衛美國的憲法自由。如果他們中每個人都把自己的忠告保留到那一刻才說，那麼釋放出來的威力會更強大。

Against that, however, is the growing demand from the left that Mr Obama spearhead opposition to Mr Trump. This is assisted by the fact that the Democratic party has no obvious leader — or generation of new leaders waiting in the wings. Some of the party’s sorry condition is clearly on Mr Obama’s conscience. He left office with the Democratic party in its worst state since the 1920s. In addition to losing control of both chambers of Congress, the Democrats today have 16 governorships, compared with 28 when Mr Obama was elected and six states where it controls both chambers plus the governorship versus 17 when he came to office.

然而，與之相對的是左翼要求奧巴馬帶頭反對特朗普的呼聲日益高漲。推動這種呼聲的一個因素是：眼下民主黨沒有一位明顯的領袖，也沒有一代新的領袖作後備。民主黨的一些糟糕境況明顯令奧巴馬心懷愧疚。他卸任後的民主黨處於自1920年代以來最糟糕的狀態。除了失去對國會兩院的控制權外，如今只有16個州長是民主黨人，相比之下奧巴馬當選總統時有28個州長是民主黨人；只有6個州民主黨控制着兩院且州長爲民主黨人，而在他上任時這樣的州有17個。

If that picture holds in 2020, Republicans will be able to gerrymander districts in their favour for another decade. It could enshrine Trumpism as the dominant force in US politics. It is a spectre that clearly haunts Mr Obama, who told voters that his legacy was on the ballot in November. It is still on the ballot.

如果這一情況持續到2020年，共和黨將可以擁有又一個十年時間將選區重新劃分得有利於該黨。這可能會使特朗普主義成爲美國政壇的主導力量。這是明顯縈繞在奧巴馬心頭的恐懼，他曾在去年11月告訴選民，他的政治遺產取決於他們的投票。目前依然如此。

Even if Mr Obama resists such demands, Mr Trump will keep pulling him back into the arena. In the weeks before Mr Trump took office, Mr Obama bent over backwards to welcome his successor. In a fleeting moment of gratitude, Mr Trump said: “I don’t know if he’ll admit it, but he [Obama] likes me.” Mr Trump would have been closer to the truth if he had declared what is really gnawing at him. Mr Obama won twice with a clear majority, whereas Mr Trump lost the popular vote. He can never forgive him for that.

即使奧巴馬回絕了這些要求，特朗普也將繼續把他拖回到競技場上。在特朗普上任前數週，奧巴馬竭盡所能地歡迎這位繼任者。在一個心懷感激的瞬間，特朗普曾說：“我不知道他是否會承認，但他（奧巴馬）喜歡我。”如果特朗普說出實際上折磨着他的事，他就離真相更近了。奧巴馬曾兩度以明顯優勢勝選，而特朗普輸掉了普選。因爲這一點，他永遠也沒法原諒奧巴馬。