強美元下特朗普如何削減貿易逆差

Donald Trump railed against the effects of an overly strong dollar during the election campaign, warning about the damage it did to US companies’ competitiveness.

唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在競選期間曾抱怨美元過分強勢的影響，並警告這對美國企業競爭力造成損害。

Unfortunately for the president-elect, his own victory on November 8 has proven to be a catalyst for an even more expensive US currency — in part because of stimulus plans Mr Trump himself is pursuing.

不幸的是，他在11月8日的勝選已經成爲美元進一步走強的催化劑——這部分緣於他打算實施的經濟刺激計劃。

America’s growing strong dollar conundrum poses a threat to Mr Trump’s vows to slash the trade deficit.

美國日益突出的強勢美元難題對特朗普誓言大幅削減貿易逆差造成威脅。

Some leading analysts fear the elevated currency could prompt the incoming administration to lash out with protectionist measures as it attempts to prove it is fighting for US exporters’ interests, with China the likely focal point of early clashes.

一些知名分析人士擔心，美元升值或將導致下屆政府大量祭出保護主義措施，因爲新政府將力圖證明自己在爲美國出口商爭取利益，而中國極有可能成爲早期衝突的焦點。

It looks like a slow motion train wreck to me, said David Dollar, a former US Treasury official in China who is now at Brookings, the think-tank.

美國財政部前駐華官員、現供職於智庫布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)的杜大偉(David Dollar)表示：我覺得這就像一場慢鏡頭的火車事故。

The Trump plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending were likely to help drive up both interest rates and the dollar and cause the US trade deficit to continue widening, he said.

他說，特朗普的減稅及基礎設施支出計劃可能幫助推高利率和美元，使美國的貿易逆差繼續擴大。

I’m not sure it’s rational to set reducing the US trade deficit as an objective.

我不確定把減少美國貿易逆差作爲目標是否合理。

But if you do then this policy package does not seem to get us to a more balanced trade situation.

但是如果這樣做，這種政策組合似乎不會給我們帶來更平衡的貿易狀況。

Since the election the trade-weighted dollar is up by about 3.3 per cent.

自此次大選開始以來，美元加權匯率上升了約3.3%。

With the incoming administration advocating policies that would boost the budget deficit, something that could prompt the US Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-lifting plans, analysts including William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, see further currency gains ahead.

由於即將上臺的新政府提倡可能擴大預算赤字的政策，很可能促使美聯儲(Fed)加快其加息計劃，包括彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員威廉.克萊恩(William Cline)在內的分析人士認爲，未來美元匯率將進一步升高。

He estimates that as of mid-November the dollar was overvalued by around 11 per cent, and argues that fiscal stimulus and associated interest rate increases risk yet further increases in the dollar.

他估計，截至11月中旬，美元被高估了約11%，並稱財政刺激伴隨加息可能使美元進一步升值。

The US current account deficit is on track to widen from 2.7 per cent of gross domestic product this year to nearly 4 per cent by 2021.

美國經常賬戶赤字預計將從今年佔國內生產總值(GDP)2.7%擴大到2021年的近4%。

Pledges to tackle the trade deficit were a central feature of Mr Trump’s campaign: a September report by advisers Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross, his nominee to be commerce secretary, claimed that eliminating the deficit would lead to a surge in growth — a notion heavily criticised by economists.

承諾解決貿易逆差是特朗普競選綱領中的一個要點：他的兩位顧問彼得.納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)和威爾伯.羅斯(Wilbur Ross)——他已提名後者當商務部長——在9月份的一份報告中指出，消除逆差將使增長大幅加快——這個觀點遭到經濟學家詬病。

Mr Trump warned of the damage from a high exchange rate: It sounds good to say ‘we have a strong dollar’.

特朗普警告匯率處於高位所造成的損失，他說：‘我們有強勢美元’這句話聽起來不錯，

But that’s about where it stops, he said.

但問題在於它止步於何處。

Some officials fear that with his stimulus and the surging dollar Mr Trump could be creating swings in exchange rates that would eventually lead him to blame trading partners such as China or the EU, heightening the temptation to resort to protectionist policies.

有些官員擔心在他的刺激政策和美元飆升作用下，特朗普可能造成匯率波動，這最終可能導致他怪罪中國或歐盟等貿易夥伴，使他更想採取保護主義政策。

The US can weather currency strength much better than many other major economies because of the relatively small role exports play in the economy.

美國對本幣強勢的耐受度遠超其他許多主要經濟體，因爲出口在其經濟中所佔分量相對較小。

But that does not change the fact that a strong dollar would make Mr Trump’s stated goal of attracting manufacturing jobs back to the US more difficult and hurt US competitiveness.

但這改變不了如下事實，強勢美元將令特朗普提出的吸引製造業工作迴歸美國的目標更難實現，且會損害美國的競爭力。

The main concern that many people should be focusing on is that you could have the beginning of a trade war with the surge in the dollar, said a senior European trade official.

歐洲一名資深貿易官員表示：許多人應關注的主要問題是，美元升值可能是貿易戰爭的開端。

Relations with China provide an early test.

對華關係將較早經受考驗。

Having said he will brand the country a currency manipulator soon after taking office, Mr Trump this month accused China of hurting the US with a devaluation.

特朗普曾表示上任後將立即把中國歸爲貨幣操縱者，本月他指責中國用貶值來傷害美國。

Yet while the renminbi has depreciated against the dollar since earlier this year, the Chinese authorities have recently been intervening to prevent even steeper declines in the currency.

然而，雖然人民幣兌美元匯率自今年年初以來持續貶值，但中國當局近來一直在干預阻止人民幣更大幅貶值。

Mr Trump has a number of options if he wants to go after China.

特朗普如果想對付中國，他有很多選擇。

The current law would call for intensified dialogue with China — or negotiations — should the administration find Beijing to be a currency manipulator.

美國政府若認爲北京是貨幣操縱者，按照現行法律，其應加強與中國的對話，或者說談判。

If that did not lead anywhere it would call for possible sanctions, including the exclusion of Chinese companies from government procurement contracts, something that would have negligible impact on China.

如果對話沒有任何效果，就輪到採取可能的制裁措施，包括將中國企業排除在政府採購合同之外，這對中國的影響可以忽略不計。

Another response could be to declare a balance of payments emergency and invoke a 1974 law that would allow the president to unilaterally impose tariffs up to 15 per cent or other restrictions on Chinese goods for up to 150 days.

另一種對策是宣佈美國國際收支進入緊急狀態，並援引一項1974年的法律，該法規允許美國總統單方面對中國貨物加徵最高達15%的關稅或施加其他限制，有效期最長150天。