專家警告特朗普對華提高關稅可能引發貿易戰爭

On the campaign trail, Donald J. Trump has promised to do quite a few things that are beyond the powers of an American president, like billing Mexico for a border wall. But when it comes to foreign trade, his powers as president would come closer to his expansive ambitions.

在競選活動中，唐納德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)做出的不少承諾超出了美國總統的權力範圍，比如讓墨西哥出錢在美墨邊境修牆。不過，在對外貿易方面，特朗普如果真的當上了美國總統，他手中的權力就會和他膨脹的野心更加匹配。

As president, Mr. Trump could seek to penalize other nations for undercutting American manufacturers or stealing American ideas. He could also pursue congressional legislation to impose a 45 percent tariff, or tax, on imported Chinese goods, as he has proposed.

當上總統，特朗普就有權力尋求對一些國家施加懲罰，理由是這些國家給美國生產商帶來損失，或者竊取了美國的想法。他還可以向國會尋求立法，比如按照他提出的，對中國的進口商品徵收45%的關稅。

The bottom line, some experts say, is that Mr. Trump might well be able to squeeze China.

一些專家表示，關鍵在於，特朗普克可能的確會有擠壓中國的能力。

That does not mean, however, that his punitive approach would ease America’s economic pains. In fact, a range of experts agree that Mr. Trump’s proposals are more likely to deepen those problems, particularly if China or other targeted nations retaliate, rather than accept his demands.

但是，這並不意味着他的懲罰措施可以緩解美國的經濟陣痛。事實上，很多專家認爲，更大的可能是特朗普的提議會加劇這些問題，特別是中國或其他被針對的國家也許不僅不接受他的要求，反而會採取報復行動。

Starting a trade war might be cathartic for workers who have lost jobs, but it is unlikely to create a lot of factory work.

掀起貿易戰對於失去工作的人來說興許是一種宣泄，但不太可能創造出大量的工業崗位。

“There’s no way a tariff of this kind could deliver the kind of benefits that he’s talking about, and it’s quite wrong to think that the big problem for American workers has been foreign trade,” said J .W. Mason, a professor of economics at John Jay College and a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a liberal think tank. “But I think it could be very destructive for the rest of the world.”

“這樣的關稅絕不可能帶來他說的那種好處。覺得給美國勞動者帶來重大麻煩的是對外貿易活動，這個想法也是相當錯誤的，”約翰·傑刑事司法學院(John Jay College)經濟學教授、自由派智庫羅斯福研究所(Roosevelt Institute)的研究員J·W·梅森(J. W. Mason)說。“我認爲，這麼做反而可能會給世界其他地區造成巨大破壞。”

Mr. Trump’s views on trade are among his oldest and steadiest public policy positions. He has long maintained that other countries are taking advantage of the United States because Americans spend more money on foreign goods than the rest of the world spends on American goods. And he has long argued for slapping higher tariffs on those foreign goods in order to fortify the American economy.

在特朗普的公共政策立場中，有關貿易的觀點是最持久和最穩定的。長久以來，他一直堅稱，其他國家在佔美國的便宜，因爲美國購買外國商品花費的資金要比世界其他國家購買美國商品的花費更多。他還長期主張對這些進口商品設置更高的關稅，以鞏固美國經濟。

Trade was the first policy issue Mr. Trump mentioned last Tuesday in a speech after his latest round of victories in five northeastern primaries.

貿易是特朗普在上週二的演講中提到的第一項政策議題。此時他剛在東北部五個州的初選中獲得了最新一輪的勝利。

“Our jobs are being sucked away from our country and we’re not going to let it happen anymore, folks,” he said at a victory party in New York that night.

“我國的工作機會正在被人抽乾，同胞們，我們不會再讓這種事情發生了，”他當晚在紐約的慶功宴上說。

It emerged again Wednesday in Washington during what was billed as a major foreign policy speech.

週三，這種論調在華盛頓再度出現。週三的講話被標榜爲特朗普的一次外交政策重要講話。

This Tuesday, Mr. Trump hopes to sweep the delegates in Indiana and all but sew up the Republican nomination. Nowhere has trade figured more centrally than in the Hoosier State, where the air conditioner maker Carrier opted to move operations to Mexico, becoming a recurrent feature in Mr. Trump’s anti-free-trade litanies.

本週二，特朗普希望一舉拿下印第安納州的全部代表，把共和黨提名穩穩攥在手中。貿易問題在印第安納州的地位，比其他任何地方都更重。該州的空調生產商開利(Carrier)選擇將企業遷往墨西哥，因而在特朗普連篇累牘的反自由貿易言論中反覆出現。

China has prospered over the last few decades by focusing its economy on low-cost manufacturing for foreign markets. Exports to the United States soared, particularly after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. American businesses and consumers bought $481.9 billion in Chinese goods in 2015, about one-fifth of all imports and the most from any country. But manufacturing employment in the United States has fallen sharply. A 2013 study estimated that China’s rise had eliminated at least one million domestic factory jobs.

過去幾十年裏，中國把經濟重心放在面向外國市場的低成本製造業上，並藉此實現了繁榮。中國對美國的出口劇增，尤其是在2001年加入世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)之後。在2015年，美國的企業和消費者購買了價值4819億美元的中國商品，約佔美國所有進口商品的五分之一，比其他任何國家都多。但美國的製造業就業率急劇下滑。2013年的一項研究估計，中國的崛起導致美國國內至少100萬個工廠就業崗位流失。

In the current campaign, Mr. Trump has proposed a 45 percent tax on Chinese imports and a 35 percent tax on Mexican imports. He has also proposed tariffs on goods that specific American companies produce in foreign countries, including Carrier air-conditioners and Ford automobiles.

此次競選期間，特朗普建議對中國和墨西哥的進口貨物分別徵收45%和35%的關稅。他還提議對特定的美國公司在外國生產的商品徵收關稅，包括開利空調和福特汽車。

Mr. Trump has said the threat of such tariffs would persuade China, for example, to modify the economic policies that he describes as providing unfair advantages to Chinese companies. Rather than incur his wrath, he says, American companies would be persuaded to keep more of their factories close to home.

特朗普表示，徵收這類關稅的威脅會說服中國等國家調整經濟政策。他稱相關政策給中國公司提供了不公平的優勢。他說美國公司不會來觸怒他，而是會信服地將它們的工廠放在離家近的地方。

“The 45 percent is a threat that if they don’t behave,” Mr. Trump said at a Republican debate in Miami last month, the United States “will tax you.”

“45%的關稅是一個威脅，你要敢不老實，”特朗普上月在邁阿密的一場共和黨辯論上說，美國“就會收你的稅”。

He added: “It doesn’t have to be 45; it could be less. But it has to be something because our country and our trade and our deals and most importantly our jobs are going to hell.”

他接着說：“不一定是45%，可能會低一點。但必須得徵收一些關稅，因爲不然的話，我們的國家、我們的貿易、我們的買賣，最重要的是我們的工作崗位就會走向地獄。”

As president, Mr. Trump would have some latitude to reverse a course that the nation has pursued for decades. But the results could be troublesome on multiple fronts. The removal of trade barriers has played a significant role in reducing global poverty and encouraging peace between nations, achievements that could be eroded by tit-for-tat backsliding.

若能當上總統，特朗普將有能力扭轉美國幾十年來一直遵循的一項方針。但結果可能會給多個領域帶來麻煩。消除貿易壁壘在減輕全球貧困和鼓勵國家之間和平共處中發揮了重要作用。倒退到以牙還牙的狀態可能會損害這些成就。

“The basic principle is that a sovereign state enters trade agreements of its free will, and it can get back out,” said Robert Howse, the Lloyd C. Nelson professor of international law at N.Y.U. School of Law. “But that’s the easy part.”

“基本的原則是，主權國家自願加入一項貿易協定，也可以退出，”紐約大學法學院勞埃德·C·納爾遜國際法教授羅伯特·豪斯(Robert Howse)說。“但這方面好辦。”

Imposing sweeping tariffs would reverse a mainstay of United States foreign policy. Beginning after World War II, the United States gradually reduced its import taxes and pushed other nations to do the same, seeking not only to promote increased trade but to prevent conflict. The United States now imposes average weighted import tariffs of just 1.4 percent, according to the World Bank, among the lowest rates in the world.

大範圍徵收關稅會推翻美國外交政策的一個主要支柱。從二戰結束後開始，美國逐步降低進口關稅，並推動其他國家也這麼做，尋求促進已經在增加的貿易，並防止衝突。據世界銀行(World Bank)稱，美國現在徵收的進口關稅的加權平均值僅爲1.4%，是關稅最低的國家之一。

Under existing laws, Mr. Trump could impose tariffs only on specific categories of imports, not whole countries, and only by demonstrating specific violations of trade rules, such as export subsidies. “There are at least 50 sets of laws and regulations that exist that China has, at least in spirit, crossed the boundaries,” Sam Clovis, an adviser to Mr. Trump, said in an interview.

根據現行法律，特朗普只能對特定類別而非所有國家的進口貨物徵收關稅，並且只能通過證明對方的確違反了貿易規則，如提供出口補貼的途徑。“至少有50套現有的法律和規定可以用來證明，中國至少在精神上是越界了，”特朗普的顧問薩姆·克洛維斯(Sam Clovis)在接受採訪時說。

But Mr. Trump would have the difficult task of proving that China is breaking the rules before the World Trade Organization, which polices global commerce. International trade laws limit the type of help governments can provide to companies, but the role of the Chinese government is particularly opaque, said Mark Wu, a professor of law at Harvard and a former United States trade negotiator in the administration of President George W. Bush.

但特朗普將面臨一項困難的任務，即證明中國當着管理全球商業秩序的世貿組織的面違反了規則。曾在喬治·W·布什(George W. Bush)政府擔任美國貿易談判代表的哈佛大學教授伍人英(Mark Wu)表示，國際貿易法限制了政府可向公司提供的幫助的類型，但中國政府所扮演的角色是特別模糊的。

“China’s economy is its own beast, and it has a form that was not envisioned at the time these rules were created 20 years ago,” Mr. Wu said. “W.T.O. rules are not necessarily equipped to address all of the problematic aspects of that China Inc. system as far as American exporters are concerned.”

“中國經濟自成一體，20年前制定這些規則時沒有預見到它是這樣的形式，”伍人英說。“從美國出口商的角度看，世貿組織的規則不見得能應付中國公司體系令人質疑的諸多方面。”

In fact, one of Mr. Trump’s favorite charges, that China and other nations are suppressing the value of their currencies, is actually not a violation of existing trade agreements.

特朗普最喜歡提出的一項指控是稱中國和其他一些國家壓低本國貨幣的幣值。但實際上，這項指控並未違反現有的貿易協議。

A central problem is defining currency manipulation in a way that excludes the United States — in particular, the Federal Reserve’s post-recession stimulus campaign, which had the effect of weakening the dollar much in the same way that other countries do to their currency.

核心問題是，用一種將美國——尤其是美聯儲的後衰退刺激計劃——排除在外的方式定義貨幣操縱行爲。和其他國家對本國貨幣採取的措施一樣，美聯儲的刺激計劃起到了讓美元走軟的作用。

Alternatively, Mr. Trump could pursue the radical option of seeking legislation to impose a broad China tariff, in effect demolishing the rules of global trade.

或者，特朗普也可能會選擇激進的方案，尋求通過立法來對中國的商品廣泛徵收關稅。這實際上是在推翻全球貿易規則。

“It would be a flagrant violation,” said Alan O. Sykes, a professor of law at Stanford and an expert on international economic relations. “There is no prior violation of W.T.O. law that would be even close.”

“那將是公然的違規，”斯坦福大學法學教授、國際經濟關係專家艾倫·Q·賽克斯(Alan O. Sykes)說。“這種對世貿組織法律的嚴重違反將是空前的。”

The impact of such legislation would touch almost every aisle at Walmart.

這樣的法律幾乎會影響到沃爾瑪(Walmart)所有的貨物品類。

In 2015, Americans bought $14.2 billion worth of Chinese shoes, $2.5 billion of Chinese jewelry and $593 million of Chinese rugs. And, most of all, cellphones — $64 billion worth, according to the Commerce Department.

據商務部稱，2015年美國從中國購買了價值142億美元的鞋、25億美元的珠寶和5.93億美元的毛毯。最重要的是，美國還購買了價值640億美元的手機。

All told, the United States imported $481.9 billion in Chinese goods in 2015, a record.

在2015年，美國總共購買了價值4819億美元的中國商品，打破了記錄。

But research suggests that the price of Chinese goods would rise by significantly less than 45 percent because companies would hold the line to preserve their market share. Consumers can also buy comparable goods. When the United States imposed a 35 percent tariff on Chinese tires in 2009, imports of tires from China declined while imports from Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand rose sharply.

但研究表明，中國商品的價格漲幅會遠低於45%，因爲相關公司會堅持下去，以保持自己的市場份額。消費者也可以購買其它同類商品。美國2009年對中國輪胎徵收35%的關稅時，來自中國的輪胎進口下降，來自印尼、墨西哥和泰國的進口輪胎卻大幅增加。

For the same reasons, however, economists see little chance that a tariff would achieve Mr. Trump’s goal of encouraging domestic production. They say it is even less likely to create large numbers of new factory jobs. American manufacturing output is at the highest level in history and employment has fallen because of large gains in efficiency, a trend that is unlikely to reverse.

然而，因爲同樣的原因，經濟專家認爲，通過增加關稅來實現特朗普鼓勵國內生產這個目標是不太可能的。他們甚至稱，這麼做不太可能會創造大量新的工廠就業崗位。因爲效率大幅提升，美國的製造業產出處於史上最高水平，就業下降。這種趨勢不太可能逆轉。

China could retaliate by imposing its own tariffs. China responded to the tire tariff, for example, by imposing a tariff on American chicken parts.

中國可能會通過徵收關稅來進行報復。比如，中國對輪胎關稅的迴應便是對美國的雞肉產品徵稅。

The United States sold $116.2 billion in goods to China in 2015, including aircraft parts, automobiles and semiconductors — high-value industries in which workers earn high wages. Losing China’s market could mean sacrificing better jobs for less desirable ones.

美國2015年向中國賣出了價值1162億美元的商品，包括飛機零部件、汽車和半導體。在這些商品所屬的高價值行業，工人們享受着高薪。失去中國市場可能意味着爲了不那麼好的崗位而犧牲了更好的崗位。

Doug Oberhelman, chairman and chief executive of Caterpillar, described higher tariffs as “very dangerous” in February. “We’re 5 percent of the world population,” said Mr. Oberhelman, who spoke in his capacity as president of the Business Roundtable, a pro-trade lobby. “Ninety-five percent of our potential customers are elsewhere. We’ve got to learn and figure out how to deal with that.”

卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)董事長兼首席執行官道格·奧伯赫爾曼(Doug Oberhelman)曾在今年2月表示，提高關稅“非常危險”。“我們的人口只佔全世界的5%，”奧伯赫爾曼以支持自由貿易的遊說團體商業圓桌會議(Business Roundtable)會長的身份說。“我們的潛在顧客中，95%都在其他地方。我們得學習並弄清楚如何應對這種情況。”

The damage to international trade agreements could also have deep and enduring consequences.

對國際貿易協議的損害，可能也會帶來深遠、持久的後果。

One of the central benefits of the current system is that it separates trade disputes from other kinds of conflict. The global effort to reduce tariffs after World War II “was dreamed up as a way to prevent world wars,” said Mr. Howse, the N.Y.U. professor. “That should not be forgotten.”

當前這個制度的核心好處之一是，它把貿易爭端和其他類型的衝突區分開了。二戰後全球降低關稅的行動“被設想爲一種預防世界大戰的途徑，”前述的紐約大學教授豪斯稱。“這一點不應忘記。”