特朗普“放過”人民幣匯率可能引發國內反彈

Donald Trump’s stunning policy reversal on China’s currency this week shone a light on the administration’s contradictory views on foreign exchange, and risks exposing the president to a political backlash over abandoned campaign promises, analysts say.

分析人士表示，本週唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)對待中國貨幣的政策發生驚人逆轉，揭示了美國政府對於外匯問題的矛盾看法，並可能導致這位總統因背棄競選承諾而遭到政治反彈。

The president on Thursday backed away from his signature vow to brand China a currency manipulator, executing a U-turn from one of his Most attention-grabbing campaign pledges.

週四，特朗普背棄了要把中國列爲匯率操縱國的標誌性誓言，在他最受關注的競選承諾之一上，態度發生了180度的轉彎。

It was one of a number of volte-faces this week, including a declaration that Nato is no longer “obsolete” and warmer words for Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chair, that appeared to leave open the option of reappointing her next year.

這只是本週的一系列大轉彎之一，包括一項說北約不再“過時”的聲明，以及對美聯儲主席珍妮特?尤倫(Janet Yellen)的態度更加熱情——這似乎讓她明年再次獲得任命變得可能。

By ditching the China pledge, Mr Trump helped ease bilateral tensions with Beijing, but also invited accusations that the president is going soft on his vows to clamp down on perceived unfair trade practices.

特朗普放棄把中國列爲匯率操縱國的承諾，幫助緩解了美中雙邊緊張關係，但也招致了指責：這位總統將軟化打擊被視爲不公正貿易的做法的承諾。

China has hailed the decision, saying it would promote “more balanced growth” in bilateral trade. “We do not intend to spur export growth through competitive depreciation, and the renminbi has no basis for continuous depreciation,” foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang said on Thursday.

中國對這一決定表示歡迎，稱這將推動兩國經貿關係“更加平衡發展”。中國外交部發言人盧康週四表示：“中方無意通過貨幣競爭性貶值刺激出口，人民幣不存在持續貶值的基礎。”

As recently as February, Mr Trump labelled Beijing a “grand champion” of currency manipulation and promised tough action, while his administration has urged the International Monetary Fund to take a tougher line with Beijing over currency.

2月，特朗普曾把中國稱爲匯率操縱的“總冠軍”，並承諾採取強硬行動，美國政府則敦促國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在匯率方面對中國採取更強硬立場。

The China move opened the door to some Democrats, who had already begun to see Mr Trump’s softening on Beijing as an opportunity to reclaim the anti-trade message that was so crucial to his victory in November in industrial states such as Ohio.

對待中國的這一舉動爲一些民主黨人提供了機會。他們已開始把特朗普軟化對中國態度視爲一個機會，來恢復自身作爲反貿易派代表的形象。去年11月，反貿易形象對於特朗普在俄亥俄州等工業州獲勝起到了非常關鍵的作用。

Chuck Schumer, the top Democrat in the Senate, this week said that the opposition party was assembling a trade package designed to get tough on China in order to force the president’s hand.

參議院民主黨領袖查克?舒默(Chuck Schumer)本週表示，民主黨正在起草一份旨在對中國採取強硬手段的貿易一攬子計劃，以迫使特朗普展開行動。

Specialists in international economics welcomed the decision, saying that it recognised the reality in foreign exchange markets, given that Beijing has been intervening to hold up the value of the currency, not to drive it down.

國際經濟領域的專家對特朗普的決定表示歡迎。它們稱，該決定承認了外匯市場的現實，因爲北京方面一直在通過干預支撐、而不是壓低人民幣匯率。

The move leaves the door open to tough language in a forthcoming Treasury report on foreign exchange practices around the world, while defusing some of the tensions that have surrounded the China-US relationship.

儘管美國財政部在即將發佈的有關世界各國外匯做法的報告中仍可能使用強硬寓言，但特朗普的這一行動緩解了中美關係的緊張。

However, in the same interview with the Wall Street Journal in which he backed away from calling China a currency manipulator, Mr Trump renewed his complaints about the high value of the dollar, in words that will trigger concern in some overseas capitals.

不過，在聲稱不再把中國稱爲匯率操縱國的同一次《華爾街日報》(WSJ)採訪中，特朗普再次對美元價值過高提出了抱怨，這些話將引起海外一些國家的關注。

His declaration that the US currency was “getting too strong” clashed with recent messages from his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who has stuck more closely to the traditional US rhetoric in favour of a strong dollar.

他的關於美國貨幣“變得太強”的說法與他手下財長史蒂文?姆努欽(Steven Mnuchin)不久前的表態發生了衝突。姆努欽更貼近支持強勢美元的傳統美國表態。

If Mr Trump persists with his willingness to verbally intervene about the high dollar, he will complicate relations with foreign partners over the longer run, analysts said.

分析師說，如果特朗普堅持在口頭上對美元堅挺進行干預，那麼從長期看，他將給美國與外國合作夥伴之間的關係增添變數。