美國農場主關注特朗普對華貿易政策

US trade policies under Donald Trump will be key to agricultural commodities next year, as the world continues to grapple with high levels of grain production and inventories, according to a leading forecaster.

一家領先的預測機構表示，在全球繼續應對穀物產量和庫存雙雙高企的局面之際，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)主政下的美國貿易政策將是影響明年農業大宗商品市場的關鍵因素。

“The area of concern is whether anything is going to happen that is going to affect our trade with China, which is a big agricultural buyer,” said Don Riffe, senior vice-president for agribusiness intelligence unit at Informa, a key grains forecaster whose data are widely followed by market participants.

諮詢公司Informa農商情報部門高級副總裁唐.裏費(Don Riffe)表示：“令人擔憂的是，會否發生什麼事情影響我們與農產品大買家中國之間的貿易。”Informa是一家主要的穀物預測機構，其數據受到市場參與者的廣泛關注。

Mr Trump’s anti-globalisation campaign platform during the elections has raised concerns about protectionist economic policies and the impact on US imports and exports of commodities, especially with China.

特朗普在競選期間的反全球化政策綱領令人擔憂他會推行保護主義的經濟政策，從而對美國的大宗商品進出口——尤其是與中國之間的大宗商品貿易——造成影響。

Despite concerns about China’s economic growth slowdown earlier in the year, agricultural exports to the country have remained firm, especially from the US in the face of drought and adverse weather in Brazil and Argentina.

儘管今年早些時候出現了對中國經濟增長放緩的擔憂，但各國對華農產品出口基本保持穩定，尤其是美國對中國的出口，至於巴西和阿根廷則受到了乾旱和惡劣天氣的影響。

China’s active imports of soyabeans from the US have kept the commodity at about $10 a bushel even in the face of record world production, which Informa estimates to have totalled 340.5m tonnes in 2016/17.

即便全球大豆產量創紀錄——Informa估計2016/17年度大豆總產量達3.405億噸——但中國從美國的大量進口，使大豆價格得以保持在10美元/蒲式耳左右。

Informa expects farmers, especially in the US, to switch their crops out of corn into soya, and the planted area to rise in 2017/18 to 125.5m hectares, up 4 per cent from the year before. World production of the oilseed is predicted to decline marginally to 338.9m tonnes, but usage is forecast to increase 3.5 per cent to 340.3m tonnes.

Informa預計農民，特別是美國農民，將把作物從玉米換成大豆，2017/2018年度大豆種植面積料增加到1.255億公頃，比上年增長4%。油籽全球產量預計略微下降至3.389億噸，但使用量料將增加3.5%至3.403億噸。

Production levels for key grains including wheat, rice and corn are also forecast to fall slightly after a year of record output in 2016/17, although they are still elevated.

小麥、大米和玉米等關鍵穀物的產量水平預計也將輕微下滑，但仍然處在較高水平。2016/2017年度這些穀物產量創下記錄。

Supplies of grains and oilseeds remain plentiful, and “we are looking at another year ahead where there’s abundant supplies”, said Mr Riffe.

裏費表示，穀物和油籽供應仍然充足，“我們認爲來年還將供應充足。”

For corn, Informa expects production to fall almost 4 per cent to 1bn tonnes in 2017/18, helping inventories to decline about 14 per cent to 195.6m tonnes. Wheat production is expected to fall back 1 per cent to 736.6m tonnes, although with usage also dropping, inventories are forecast at another record high of 247.7m tonnes.

玉米方面，Informa預計2017/2018年度的產量將下降近4%至10億噸，有助於將庫存減少約14%至1.956億噸。預計小麥產量將下降1%至7.366億噸，但使用量也會下降，預計庫存將達到2.477億噸的又一新高。

While adverse weather is always a risk, other forecasters have noted volatility in the global currency markets as a potential cause for volatility for agricultural commodity prices during 2017.

雖然惡劣天氣總是一大風險，但其他預測機構指出，全球外匯市場的波動將是造成2017年農業大宗商品價格波動的潛在原因。

In its annual outlook, Rabobank said the euro was likely to depreciate as a result of French, Dutch and German elections during 2017. This will be good for European farm exports. The fall in the pound after the Brexit vote in June has pushed up British grain exports to the highest level for almost 20 years, the bank said.

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)在年度展望報告中表示，法國、荷蘭和德國在2017年的選舉很可能導致歐元貶值。這將有利於歐洲農產品出口。該銀行表示，6月份英國脫歐公投後英鎊下跌，推動英國穀物出口達到近20年來最高水平。