特朗普顧問淡化美中貿易戰可能性
Advisers to president-elect Donald Trump have already begun playing down the prospect of a full-blown US trade war with China.
美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的顧問們已經在着手淡化美中發生全面貿易戰的可能性。
Amid concern that a new era of US protectionism would have damaging consequences for the global economy.
人們擔心，美國步入新的貿易保護主義時代會對全球經濟造成破壞性影響。
Indeed, some analysts wonder whether the tough trade promises made on the campaign trail may take a back seat as Mr Trump focuses on tax cuts and an infrastructure programme designed to boost US growth, the prospect of which has buoyed markets since Tuesday’s election.
事實上，部分分析人士在想，特朗普會不會把競選過程中作出的強硬貿易承諾放在次要位置上，而集中精力推行減稅和旨在促進美國經濟增長的基建計劃——自上週二美國大選以來，這種可能性對市場起到了提振作用。
There aren’t going to be trade wars, Wilbur Ross, the New York investor and Trump adviser, told US media last week.
特朗普的顧問、紐約投資人士威爾伯.羅斯(Wilbur Ross)上週向美國媒體表示：不會發生貿易戰的。
Mr Ross argues that Mr Trump’s widely-quoted campaign threat to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports —
特朗普曾在競選過程中威脅稱，要對從中國進口的商品徵收稅率爲45%的關稅。
Seized on by economists as the potential trigger for a trade war with Beijing — has been misunderstood and amounts only to negotiating tactics.
經濟學家們抓住這句話不放，稱此舉可能引發與中國的貿易戰。對此，羅斯辯稱道，人們誤解了特朗普這句被廣泛援引的話，它只能算是談判的戰術。
Such a figure would be dependent on a finding that China’s currency, the renminbi, was undervalued by 45 per cent, Mr Ross says.
羅斯表示，這一數字可能是基於一項認爲人民幣匯率被低估了45%的研究結果。
The International Monetary Fund has called the RMB fairly valued while US officials point out any recent intervention by Beijing in currency markets has been designed to slow a market-driven decline, arguably to the US’s benefit.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)已表示，人民幣的估值是合理的。美國官員也指出，中國政府最近對匯市作出的任何干預，都旨在延緩一輪由市場驅動的人民幣貶值，這可以說是對美國有益的。
While escalation to a full trade war is in doubt, this does not mean a Trump administration is planning to be soft with China.
雖然升級爲全面貿易戰的前景存疑，但這並不意味着特朗普政府打算對華採取溫和立場。
Mr Trump has promised to direct his Treasury Secretary to label China a currency manipulator within his first 100 days, something the outgoing President Barack Obama avoided doing for fear of provoking Beijing.
特朗普承諾，要在上任百日內指示美國財政部將中國列爲匯率操縱國。由於擔心激怒北京方面，目前即將卸任的美國總統巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)過去一直沒有這麼做。
Although such a move would be largely symbolic and carry few immediate trade consequences this would almost certainly incite an aggressive reaction from China, rapidly escalating bilateral tensions, says Eswar Prasad, a former IMF China expert now at Cornell University.
曾任IMF中國部專家、如今在康奈爾大學(Cornell University)任教的埃斯瓦爾.普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示，雖然此類舉措在很大程度上將是象徵性的、對貿易幾乎沒有什麼即刻影響，但這麼做幾乎肯定會引發中國的強硬反應，迅速加劇雙方之間的緊張態勢。
Mr Trump would undoubtedly bring high-profile cases against China at the World Trade Organisation and impose steep anti-dumping tariffs against steel and other Chinese imports, much as the Obama administration has.
特朗普無疑會在世界貿易組織(WTO)對華髮起高調的訴訟，對鋼材和其他從中國進口的商品徵收高額反傾銷稅——這很像奧巴馬政府已經採取的做法。
His 100-day plans calls for his administration to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately.
特朗普的百日計劃要求其政府甄別出一切對美國勞動者造成不公平影響的外國貿易不當行爲，並依據美國及國際法律動用各種手段立刻掃滅這些不當行爲。
Mr Trump could also toughen foreign investment rules and the national security-focused review process conducted by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS).
特朗普還可能收緊外國投資規定和由美國外國投資委員會(CFIUS)開展的、聚焦於國家安全的審查流程。
China has long complained the current system discriminates against its companies.
長時間來，中國一直抱怨美國現行制度歧視中國企業。
Yet some see Mr Trump embracing congressional calls to broaden CFIUS’s remit to add a net economic benefit test or other strategic considerations in a move that could block more Chinese investments in the US.
不過，有些人認爲特朗普會對國會擴大CFIUS職責的呼聲採取支持態度。美國國會呼籲在CFIUS的審查流程中增添一項淨經濟效益考察或者其他戰略考量，此舉可能會封殺更多的中國對美投資。
But such a step would hit part of the economic relationship growing in the US’s favour.
但這樣的舉動將對日益有利於美國的經濟往來造成部分衝擊。
According to a new study by the Rhodium Group, a research firm, cumulative US direct investment in China between 1990 and 2015 reached $228bn.
研究機構榮鼎諮詢(Rhodium Group)的一項新研究顯示，1990年至2015年間，美國對華直接投資累計達2280億美元。
The Chinese equivalent into the US was worth $64bn.
而中國對美的同類投資爲640億美元。
But this year alone Chinese FDI into the US is poised to hit a record $30bn, according to Rhodium, and anything disturbing that would hit American workers.
但榮鼎諮詢的數據顯示，僅今年一年中國對美的直接投資就將達到創紀錄的300億美元，任何干擾這一趨勢的舉措都將對美國勞動者造成衝擊。
What happens next will depend on who Mr Trump brings into office with him.
至於接下來會發生什麼，取決於特朗普會任命誰進入他的政府。
Dan DiMicco, the former chief executive of steel company Nucor and a longtime advocate of a tougher US line on China, is the point person on trade in Mr Trump’s transition team.
在特朗普的過渡班子中，貿易問題的負責人是鋼鐵企業紐柯(Nucor)前首席執行官、長期鼓吹美國對華採取更強硬立場的丹.迪米科(Dan DiMicco)。
Mr DiMicco, who is a candidate for both Commerce Secretary and US Trade Representative, told the FT on Saturday that any notions of a Trump administration taking a softer post-election line on trade were false rumours.
迪米科既是美國商務部長的候選人，也是美國貿易代表(US Trade Representative)的候選人。上週六，迪米科向英國《金融時報》表示，所有關於大選後上臺的特朗普政府會軟化其先前貿易立場的說法都是謠言。
Another campaign adviser, economist Peter Navarro, is a well-known China hawk whose 2013 film Death by China was praised by Mr Trump as an important documentary.
特朗普的另一位競選顧問、經濟學家彼得.納瓦羅(Peter Navarro)是著名的對華鷹派，特朗普曾稱讚他在2013年製作的影片《致命中國》(Death by China)是一部重要的紀錄片。
But Mr Trump’s running mate, Mike Pence, who has taken charge of the transition, is a free trader who as governor in Indiana has travelled to China to court investment.
不過，特朗普的競選搭檔、負責過渡工作的邁克.彭斯(Mike Pence)是個主張自由貿易的人。作爲印第安納州州長，彭斯曾赴中國招商引資。
Moreover, there are already signs the Republican trade establishment is entering the fray with a former US Chamber of Commerce lobbyist, Rolf Lundberg, put in charge of the transition’s trade policy implementation.
此外，已有跡象顯示共和黨貿易建制派正參與進來，前美國商會(US Chamber of Commerce)遊說人士羅爾夫.倫德伯格(Rolf Lundberg)就被指派負責過渡班子的貿易政策實施工作。
Given how the financial markets are reacting — which is splendid from a Trump viewpoint — I don’t think Trump’s trade team will want the trade part to spoil the [economic benefits of the] fiscal stimulus part, says Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)高級研究員加里.赫夫鮑爾(Gary Hufbauer)表示：考慮到金融市場目前的反應——在特朗普看來反應相當不錯——我不認爲特朗普的貿易團隊希望貿易這部分毀掉財政刺激那部分（帶來的經濟好處）。
Some in China are optimistic.
部分中國人士持樂觀態度。
Most American presidential candidates don’t carry out their threats once they become president, says Li Xinchuang, head of the China Metallurgical Planning and Research Institute.
中國冶金工業規劃研究院(China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute)院長李新創表示：多數美國總統候選人在當選後都不會把選舉時的威脅付諸實施。
Others remain fearful, however.
但也有些人士仍然感到擔憂。
In the post-Cold War era, Trump is an unprecedented protectionist, says Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
在後冷戰時代，特朗普是個史無前例的貿易保護主義者。
Sooner or later his protectionism and populism will damage Sino-US trade relations.
中國人民大學(Renmin University)國際關係學教授時殷弘表示，他的保護主義和民粹主義遲早會破壞中美貿易關係。
