貿易問題上,特朗普雷聲大雨點小

WASHINGTON — President Trump keeps firing verbal broadsides at Mexico and China, but so far his new administration has not acted to keep specific campaign promises about trade policy.

華盛頓——特朗普總統一直在嘴上炮轟墨西哥和中國，但迄今爲止，他的新政府尚未採取行動，兌現競選期間做出的有關貿易政策的明確承諾。

Mr. Trump did not declare China a “currency manipulator” on his first day in office, as he had vowed, nor has he after his first month. Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, said on Thursday that his department was conducting a standard biannual review of the currency practices of China and other trading partners.

特朗普沒有像他起誓的那樣，在上臺第一天宣佈中國是“匯率操縱國”，上臺一個月後也沒有。美國財政部長史蒂文·努欽(Steven Mnuchin)在週四表示，財政部正在對中國和其他貿易伙伴的匯率政策進行標準的一年兩次的評估。

Mr. Trump also has not initiated the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, something he promised to “immediately pursue.”

特朗普也沒有就《北美自由貿易協定》（North American Free Trade Agreement）與墨西哥和加拿大重新進行談判。他曾承諾“立即着手”此事。

“There’s definitely a huge gap between rhetoric and reality,” said Chad P. Bown, a senior fellow and specialist on trade policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“言論和現實之間肯定存在巨大差距，”彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高級研究員、貿易政策專家查德·P·鮑恩(Chad P. Bown)說。

Mr. Trump made trade one of his signature issues during the campaign, excoriating what he described as failed policies that have allowed foreign countries, notably China and Mexico, to profit at Americans’ expense. And he has not changed his tune since he moved into the White House.

競選期間，特朗普讓貿易成了他的標誌性化話題之一，斥責他口中失敗的政策，稱其使外國，尤其是中國和墨西哥以美國的利益爲代價獲利。入主白宮後，他並未改口。

“Take a look at Nafta, one of the worst deals ever made by any country having to do with economic development,” Mr. Trump told the cheering crowd on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference, held just outside Washington. “It’s economic undevelopment, as far as our country is concerned.”

“看看《北美自由貿易協定》，它是所有國家簽訂的經濟發展協議中最糟糕的之一，”特朗普週五在華盛頓郊區舉行的保守派政治行動會議(Conservative Political Action Conference)上對歡呼的人羣說。“就我國而言，是經濟不發展。”

Mr. Trump has fulfilled one campaign promise on trade, signing an order to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a unsigned deal that the Obama administration negotiated with Pacific Rim nations but had not submitted to Congress for approval.

特朗普兌現了競選期間做出的其中一個貿易承諾，簽署了美國退出“跨太平洋夥伴關係協定”(Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP)的命令。該協定尚未簽署，是奧巴馬政府同太平洋沿岸國家達成，但還未提交國會，獲得後者的批准。

But the absence of clear action on China and Mexico is striking, both because Mr. Trump’s language remains so bellicose and because the administration has moved quickly to keep many of the other campaign promises that it made.

未對中國和墨西哥採取明確行動這一點頗爲顯眼，這既是因爲特朗普的語言依然非常強硬，也是因爲特朗普政府已經爲兌現競選期間的其他承諾而採取了迅速的行動。

The “Contract with the American Voter” that Mr. Trump announced in October has proved in most respects an accurate guide to the first month of his presidency.

特朗普10月宣佈的“與美國選民的約定”，在大多數方面證明是他第一個月總統任期的精確指南。

Mr. Trump has nominated a conservative judge to the Supreme Court and announced a freeze on federal hiring. He has reversed some Obama-era regulations and sharply shifted the government’s policies on immigration. The White House is pressing Congress to approve a new health care plan and overhaul the tax code.

特朗普提名一位保守派法官進入最高法院，並宣佈凍結聯邦政府的僱用。他撤銷了奧巴馬時期的部分規定，並大幅調整了政府的移民政策。白宮正在向國會施壓，要求批准一個新的醫療保健計劃，並改革稅法。

Trade policy has emerged as perhaps the most notable exception.

貿易政策或許是最值得關注的例外。

Mr. Trump’s views on trade diverge widely from the mainstream of the Republican Party, more so than on any other issue of economic policy. And some Republicans were quick to warn Mr. Trump against protectionist measures, fearing they could damage American economic growth.

特朗普在貿易問題上的觀點與共和黨的主流觀點分歧很大，比在其他任何經濟政策問題上的分歧都大。部分共和黨人迅速警告特朗普不要採取保護主義措施，擔心這可能會破壞美國的經濟增長。

“The main point I wanted to convey is that regardless of what action the incoming president takes on trade, he and his advisers should consider the effects on agriculture,” Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, declared last month after meeting with Robert E. Lighthizer, Mr. Trump’s choice to be chief trade negotiator. “I expect the new administration to work hard to maintain existing markets for Iowa and other farm states’ exports and open new markets as well.”

“我想表達的主要觀點是，不管新總統在貿易問題上採取什麼行動，他和他的顧問都應該考慮對農業的影響，”艾奧瓦州共和黨參議員查爾斯·E·格拉斯利(Charles E. Grassley)上月在同特朗普挑選的首席貿易談判代表羅伯特·E·萊特希澤(Robert E. Lighthizer)舉行完會面後說。“我希望新政府努力保持艾奧瓦州和其他農業州現有的市場，同時開闢新市場。”

Another farm state Republican, Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska, this week celebrated the 200th anniversary of the publication of David Ricardo’s economic theory of comparative advantage, which shows that trade between two nations benefits both. “It’s still brilliant & beautiful,” Mr. Sasse wrote on Twitter. He suggested in a second post that parents should read Ricardo to their children.

另一名來自農業州的共和黨人、內布拉斯加州參議員本·薩瑟(Ben Sasse)本週慶祝大衛·李嘉圖(David Ricardo)的比較優勢經濟理論發表200週年。該理論顯示，貿易對雙方都有利。“它依然耀眼美麗，”薩瑟在Twitter上寫道。他在另一篇帖子中建議家長給孩子讀李嘉圖的著作。

Mr. Trump said during the presidential campaign that he would declare China a currency manipulator on “Day 1” of his administration. He reiterated that commitment in his “Contract with the American Voter,” which said, “I will direct the secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator.”

特朗普在總統競選期間稱，他會在上臺“第一天”宣佈中國是匯率操縱國。在“與美國選民的約定”中，他重申了這一承諾，稱“我會指示財政部長將中國列爲匯率操縱國”。

And on Thursday, Mr. Trump reiterated his longstanding view of China in an interview with Reuters. “I think they’re the grand champions at manipulation of currency,” Mr. Trump said, adding, “We’ll see what happens.”

週四，特朗普在接受路透社(Reuters)的採訪時重申了自己一直以來對中國的觀點。“我認爲他們是操縱匯率的大贏家，”特朗普說道，並接着表示，“接下來會怎樣，我們拭目以待。”

But Mr. Mnuchin had already made clear hours earlier that the administration did not intend for anything to happen, at least immediately.

但幾個小時前，努欽已明確表示聯邦政府不打算採取任何行動，至少眼下不會。

In a televised interview with CNBC, Mr. Mnuchin said that China’s currency practices would be evaluated on the same schedule as those of other American trading partners. The Treasury publishes biannual reports on April 15 and October 15.

在接受CNBC的電視轉播採訪時，努欽稱會按照相同的日程安排評估中國和美國其他貿易伙伴的匯率政策。財政部在4月15日和10月15日發佈一年兩次的報告。

“We have a process within Treasury where we go through and look at currency manipulation across the board,” he said. “We’ll go through that process. We’ll do that as we have in the past. We’re not making any judgments until we continue that process.”

“財政部內部有一個從整體上評估匯率操縱的程序，”他說。“我們會走這個程序，會遵循以前的慣例。在繼續這個程序之前，我們不會做出任何判斷。”

Specialists in currency policy say that they see no evidence that China is suppressing the value of its currency to increase exports, as it did in previous decades.

匯率政策專家稱，他們沒有發現中國像過去幾十年那樣，爲了增加出口而壓低自己貨幣價值的證據。

The White House and the Treasury Department did not respond to requests for comment.

白宮和財政部未回覆記者的置評請求。

If the United States determines that China is manipulating its currency, a step the Treasury last took in 1994, the government would seek to reach an agreement with China, but could eventually impose tariffs on Chinese imports.

如果美國斷定中國操縱匯率——就像1994年那樣，政府便會爭取同中國達成協議，但最終也可能會對來自中國的進口商品徵收關稅。

One reason for the stuttering start may be the paucity of administration officials. Mr. Trump has said that Wilbur Ross, his nominee for commerce secretary, will lead the renegotiation of Nafta and play a major role on trade policy. But Mr. Ross is awaiting Senate confirmation. A vote is scheduled for Monday.

開局不順的一個原因或許是聯邦政府官員人手不足。特朗普曾表示，他提名的商務部長人選威爾伯·羅斯(Wilbur Ross)將領導就《北美自由貿易協定》重新展開談判，並在貿易政策上扮演重要角色。但羅斯目前正在等待參議院的確認。投票定於週一舉行。

The Senate Finance Committee has yet to schedule a hearing on the nomination of Mr. Lighthizer, a Washington lawyer, as chief trade negotiator.

參議院財政委員會(Senate Finance Committee)尚未就華盛頓律師萊特希澤提名爲首席貿易談判代表一事安排聽證會。