歐元下跌 有人歡喜有人愁

PARIS — For Herve Montjotin, chief executive of the French trucking and logistics group Norbert Dentressangle, the euro’s steep plunge against the dollar could not be more welcome.

巴黎——對於法國貨運與物流集團Norbert Dentressangle的首席執行官埃爾韋·蒙特約(Herve Montjotin)來說，歐元兌美元匯率的大幅下挫是件天大的好事。

In the months since his company bought Jacobson, an American contract logistics company, the currency’s decline — down about 23 percent over the past year — has meant a windfall when dollars earned in the United States are translated back into euros.

他的公司收購了美國物流承包商雅各布森(Jacobson)之後的幾個月裏，歐元匯率走弱，在過去的一年裏跌幅約爲23%，這意味着在美國賺的美元折算成歐元后，讓公司得到了暴利。

“We bought a profitable business, and that business now makes 20 percent more in euros than when we got it,” he said. “We’ve either been very skilled or very lucky.”

“我們收購了一家盈利不錯的公司，現在它賺的歐元，比我們收購它時多出20%，”他說。“我們如果不是非常精明，就是非常幸運。”

Millions of businesspeople on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as tourists planning trips in one direction or the other, are now watching with delight or dread as Europe’s main currency drops ever closer to parity with the dollar.

大西洋兩岸數以百萬計的商人，以及計劃去對岸旅行的遊客，現在或高興或驚駭地看着這個歐洲主要貨幣兌美元的匯率降至更接近於一比一的水平。

On Wednesday afternoon in Paris, the euro was trading at $1.0567. The currency has declined nearly 13 percent in the first months of 2015 alone and is at its lowest level since early 2003. The euro peaked at almost $1.60 in April 2008, as the European Central Bank was warning of impending interest rate increases despite the financial crisis that was beginning to be felt in the United States.

本週三下午，巴黎的交易價是1歐元兌1.0567美元。僅在2015年的前幾個月，歐元就下跌了近13%，創下2003年初以來的最低水平。歐元匯率曾在2008年4月達到約1：1.60美元的峯值，當時儘管金融危機已經開始在美國嶄露頭角，但歐洲央行表示將會加息。

The current plunge reflects differences in economic outlook, interest rates and monetary policies in Europe and the United States that in many ways favor the Americans — unless they are American companies trying to sell their wares to Europeans.

匯率的暴跌反映了歐洲和美國在經濟前景、利率和貨幣政策上的差異，其中很多方面都有利於美國人——希望把產品銷往歐洲的美國公司除外。

For the United States, which already runs a substantial trade deficit with the rest of the world, a weaker euro might only widen that gap, as German cars, Spanish wines and French luxury goods become more price-competitive. Chad Moutray, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington, warned that the strong dollar was “a major headwind” for American companies and said that executives were “less happy” than they were a few months ago.

美國與其他國家之間的貿易赤字已經相當巨大，歐元貶值可能只會拉大這一缺口，因爲德國汽車、西班牙葡萄酒和法國奢侈消費品在價格上變得更具競爭力。華盛頓美國全國製造商協會(National Association of Manufacturers)的首席經濟師查德·穆特雷(Chad Moutray)警告稱，美元走強對於美國公司是“一個主要不利因素”，他還表示，和幾個月前相比，美國高管們“不太舒心”。

“People recognize that the dollar is strengthening for the right reasons,” Mr. Moutray said, citing the relatively strong United States economy and the signals that the Federal Reserve may be closer to raising interest rates — a lure to foreign investors and a further spur to the dollar — even as the European Central Bank is keeping interest rates at historical lows. Still, he added, “the dollar is getting to a level where it’s harder to compete against the Europeans.”

“大家知道，美元走強是正常的，”穆特雷說，因爲美國經濟本來就比較強勁，而且美聯儲發出了可能升息的信號——這對外國投資者是個誘惑，也進一步刺激美元升值，而歐洲央行則是繼續將利率維持在歷史低點。不過，他說，“美元已經升到了一個比較難以與歐洲人競爭的水平。”

The happier Americans would be tourists, who during the coming spring break or summer months will find that a meal in a fancy French restaurant or a Mediterranean beach holiday costs much less than it would have a year ago. Europeans visiting New York or California, of course, will find that their euros won’t stretch nearly as far this year.

美國的旅遊者則會變得比較開心，在接下來的春假或夏季，他們會發現，在一家豪華法式餐廳吃飯，或到地中海海灘度假的價格會遠遠低於一年之前。當然，前往紐約或加州的歐洲人則會發現手中的歐元花得太快。

The sagging euro is only part of the story. The dollar is on its biggest surge since the mid-1990s — up 19 percent over the past 12 months against a basket of global currencies that includes the Japanese yen and the British pound.

相對於美元走弱的不只是歐元。在過去12個月裏，美元出現了1990年代中期以來最大的一波升勢——相對日元和英鎊在內全球多種貨幣，美元漲幅高達19%。

But the euro is the standout. And it has further room to fall, in many analysts’ view. “The market is starting to get parity in its sights,” Lee Hardman, a currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, said, estimating that a one-to-one exchange rate could be reached within weeks. “The momentum is clearly for a weaker euro.”

但其中最引人注目的是歐元。很多分析師認爲，它還有進一步下跌的空間。“市場開始發現一比一的情況就在眼前了，”三菱東京日聯銀行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubish iUFJ)貨幣經濟師李·哈德曼(Lee Hardman)表示。他估計在幾周內，歐元兌美元就會達到一比一的匯率。“歐元貶值的趨勢相當明顯。”

Part of the euro’s downturn stems from the existential questions that continue to dog the currency bloc, as dramatized by Greece’s continuing struggle with its creditors over revised bailout terms.

歐元下滑的部分原因在於：這種貨幣的生存能力仍然是個問題，而希臘對於修訂後的救援條款仍未與債權人達成妥協則進一步突顯了這個問題。

The bigger factor, though, is the impact of the European Central Bank’s program, which began this week, to buy 1.1 trillion in bonds by September 2016, while also holding its official interest rates at low, or in some cases even negative, levels. Those policies are meant to stoke the economy, but they are prompting global investors to seek better places to get a return on their money — like dollar-based stocks and bonds.

但更大的因素在於歐洲央行本週開始的計劃：在2016年9月前購買1.1萬億的債券，同時將其官方利率保持在低水平，有些情況下甚至採用負利率。這些政策的目的是刺激經濟，但卻推動全球投資者轉向可以獲得更多回報的地方——比如基於美元的股票和債券。

A Duke/CFO Magazine survey of United States companies published on Wednesday found that around two-thirds of the big American exporters polled reported a negative impact from the strong dollar.

杜克大學《首席財務官》雜誌(Duke/CFO Magazine)本週三發表了一項針對美國大型出口商的調查，稱大約三分之二的受訪者都表示，美元走強給他們帶來了不利影響。

“We are in a midst of an ugly contest to see whether the eurozone, Japan or Canada can depreciate the most against the U.S. dollar, and China is probably next,” Campbell R. Harvey, a Fuqua School of Business professor, said in a statement accompanying the survey. “U.S. exporters are being punished by these competitive depreciations, and this will lead to lower profits and less employment.”

“我們置身在一場醜陋的比賽之中，看看在歐元區、日本和加拿大之中誰的貨幣對美元貶值幅度會最大，下一個參與進來的可能就是中國了，”富庫商學院(Fuqua School of Business)教授坎貝爾·H·哈維(Campbell R. Harvey)在這項調查的導語中說。“這種貶值會增加他們商品的競爭力，美國出口商正在因此蒙受損失，而這也將導致利潤和就業崗位減少。”

If the strong dollar does continue to pose those sorts of economic threats, of course, the Fed might alter its thinking about when to raise interest rates. So far, Janet L. Yellen, the Fed chairwoman, has said that she sees factors like the strong dollar and weak oil price to be largely balanced.

如果美元走強對經濟繼續構成這些威脅，美聯儲當然就有可能改變加息時間。美聯儲主席珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)迄今一直表示，她認爲美元走強、原油價格疲軟這些因素在很大程度上保持了平衡。

But for the struggling eurozone, where unemployment is still averaging above 11 percent and where economies have stalled in most of the currency union’s 19 member countries, there is much to recommend a weaker euro.

但是，在陷入困境的歐元區，平均失業率仍高於11%，它共有19個成員國，其中大多數的經濟都停滯不前，因此這裏有很多人願意讓歐元貶值。

Speaking in Frankfurt on Wednesday, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, credited the falling currency, along with lower oil prices and the central bank’s own policies, with having recently lifted the outlook for economic growth in the bloc. A weak euro also helps the central bank in its battle to rekindle inflation from its worrisome lows, since it raises the prices of imported goods.

本週三，歐洲央行行長馬里奧·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在法蘭克福表示，歐元貶值、油價下跌，以及央行自身出臺的一些政策近來提升了歐元區經濟增長的前景。歐元區的通脹率低得令人擔憂，歐元疲軟可以提高進口商品的價格，因此也有助於央行重新推高通脹水平。