中國經濟將爲全球設定基調

With few economic data releases out over the holiday period we are assessing developments in 2015 and looking forward to the issues that will concern markets this year. This week we look at the developing and emerging economies.

鑑於放假期間沒什麼經濟數據出爐，我們正在評估2015年的事態，展望市場在今年將會關注的問題。本週讓我們來看看發展中經濟體和新興經濟體。

Developing countries have formed More than half of the world economy since the global financial crisis and, with generally higher growth than the advanced economies, this share is continuing to rise.

自全球金融危機爆發以來，發展中國家在世界經濟中的佔比已經超過一半，由於他們的增長率普遍高於發達經濟體，這一佔比正繼續上升。

According to the International Monetary Fund they accounted for 58 per cent of global output in 2015, when measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP). Problems in the largest of these economies these days become global problems.

根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據，若按購買力平價(PPP)衡量，2015年發展中經濟體佔全球總產出的58%。如今，大型發展中經濟體面臨的問題也是全球的問題。

The overriding concern of markets this year — notwithstanding rising US rates — will be the state of China’s economy. It is the largest in PPP terms, and poised to overtake the US in cash terms in the next few years.

儘管美國的利率不斷上升，但市場今年最關注的問題將是中國經濟的狀態。按購買力平價衡量，中國已經是全球最大經濟體，並將在未來幾年在絕對值基礎上超越美國。

IMF data show that China has been the source of 35 per cent of global growth over the past five years, and is forecast to form 30 per cent of growth until 2020.

IMF數據顯示，過去五年期間中國爲全球經濟增長貢獻了35%，並將在2020年底之前繼續貢獻30%的經濟增長。

However, the suspect quality of some of the official data inhibits proper analysis. Established developed economies are difficult enough to measure. In China new systems of measurement are being developed at a time of extremely rapid change. These problems are possibly exacerbated by political interference.

然而，一些官方數據的質量可疑，阻礙了恰當分析。老牌的發達經濟體已經很難衡量，而中國是在變化極其快速的時期建立新的測算體系。政治干預可能加劇了這方面的問題。

Consensus Economics, which collates and publishes analysts’ forecasts, has polled members of its China panel that have developed alternative models of the economy. While most forecasts point to 6.5 per cent growth in gross domestic product this year — in line with the official target, following 6.9 per cent in 2015 — estimates from the panel are for much lower growth, of 4.8 per cent this year, following 4.3 per cent in 2015.

整理並發表分析師預測的“共識經濟學公司”(Consensus Economics)對其研究中國經濟的專家小組的成員進行了調查，這些人建立了有關中國經濟的另類模型。儘管多數經濟學家預測中國國內生產總值(GDP)今年增長6.5%，與官方目標相符，而2015年增長6.9%，但這個專家小組的估測低得多——今年增長4.8%，2015年增長4.3%。

If growth is that low there may be profound implications, particularly for the countries that rely on exporting commodities to China.

如果經濟增長那麼低，那有可能產生深遠影響，特別是對那些依賴對中國出口大宗商品的國家而言。

India is tipped to be the best-performing large economy next year. Estimates point to growth of 7.8 per cent, slightly higher than in 2015, as the economy continues to benefit from lower oil prices. India also still has relatively high interest rates, so could use monetary policy if growth slows.

根據預測，印度將是2016年表現最佳的大型經濟體，估計增長7.8%，略高於2015年，該國經濟繼續受益於油價下跌。印度還仍具有較高的利率，因此在增長放緩的情況下可以運用貨幣政策。

Another likely star performer is Indonesia, with forecast growth of 4.9 per cent.

另一個有望表現出衆的經濟體是印尼，預計增長4.9%。

The two remaining Brics — Brazil and Russia — fell into severe recessions during 2015, which are likely to continue this year. The Russian recovery will be helped by the continued depreciation of the rouble, down 30 per cent against the dollar since April.

金磚四國中的另外兩個——巴西和俄羅斯——在2015年陷入嚴重經濟衰退，今年很可能繼續衰退。俄羅斯的復甦將得到盧布持續貶值的幫助；自2015年4月以來，盧布兌美元匯率下降30%。

Some developing economies may face a dilemma if higher US interest rates strengthen the dollar further. Weaker currencies could lead to higher inflation and capital flight, but raising interest rates to combat this could inhibit growth that is already weak.

如果更高的美國利率導致美元進一步升值，一些發展中經濟體可能面臨兩難。貨幣貶值可能導致更高的通脹和資本外逃，但如果爲了對抗這種局面而加息，就可能掐滅本來就很弱的增長。

The first significant releases of the year will be the Chinese purchasing managers’ reports from Caixin and Markit, out today, with Chinese GDP for the final quarter of 2015 scheduled for January 20.

新年發佈的首批重大數據將是財新和Markit定於今日發佈的中國採購經理人指數。2015年最後一個季度的中國GDP數據定於1月20日發佈。