全球經濟動盪不安 美國能否自保

The Chinese stock market is plummeting so fast that authorities there keep shutting it down. North Korea set off a bomb in a nuclear test. Two of the Middle East’s great powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are eyeing each other menacingly. In the European Union, political extremists are on the rise, migrants are pouring in and Britain may drop out (three phenomena that are not unrelated).

中國股市下跌如此之快，以至於中國監管機構一再關閉股市。朝鮮開展核試驗，引爆了一顆核彈。中東地區兩個最強的國家沙特阿拉伯和伊朗，正在怒目對視。在歐盟，極端的政治立場正在增強，移民正在涌入，英國可能會退出歐盟（這三個現象並非互不相關）。

And in the United States, the number of people filing unemployment claims is hovering near the lowest levels in four decades, the jobless rate may well fall below 5 percent for the first time since 2007, and whatever the noise on the presidential campaign trail, Congress recently passed bipartisan legislation to keep the government running comfortably into next year.

而在美國，申領失業救濟的人數停留在40年來的最低水平附近，失業率很可能在2007年以來首次下降到5%以下。此外，無論競選中的候選人們如何聒噪，國會兩黨最近合作通過了一項立法，確保政府可以安然運轉到明年。

Seven days in, 2016 is shaping up to be a chaotic year in global economics and geopolitics, with profound challenges nearly everywhere. Except, for now at least, in the world’s largest economy. The American economy is acting as a steadying force in a volatile world.

進入2016年已經七天，這一年在全球經濟和地緣政治方面都趨於混亂，幾乎所有地方都面臨着深遠的挑戰。到目前爲止，全球最大的經濟體還是一個例外。美國經濟在動盪的世界裏，成了一股穩定性的力量。

A giant question for 2016 — not just for Americans but for people across the globe who benefit from having one of the world’s major economic engines revving while others putter — is how resilient the United States will prove to be.

世界大型經濟體中美國還在正常運轉，其他經濟體卻遇到了麻煩，這一點讓全球很多人受益。2016年的一個大問題是，美國抵禦衝擊的能力究竟有多強，這個問題不僅與美國人有關，還與世界各地因美國經濟而受益的人有關。

On one hand, in an interconnected global economy, troubles in one place can spread easily, whether through financial markets, the banking system or trade linkages. Just Thursday the World Bank downgraded its forecast of 2016 global growth, which implies less demand for American products around the world — and fewer jobs for American workers.

另一方面，在緊密聯繫的全球經濟中，一個地方遇到的麻煩很容易就會蔓延，無論是通過金融市場、銀行體系，還是貿易聯繫。就在週四，世界銀行(World Bank)調低了2016年的全球增長預期，這預示着全世界對美國產品的需求會降低——美國工薪階層的就業崗位也會減少。

On the other hand, in the past the United States has shown an uncanny tendency to benefit economically from tumult abroad.

另一方面，過去國外出現經濟動盪時，美國常常會出人意料地獲得經濟利益。

“The United States may not have incredibly robust economic growth and has plenty of problems you can point to,” said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consultancy. “But from a stability perspective, when things are more unstable the United States in some ways gets stronger” as both people and invesment dollars gravitate to the nation’s relative stablity.

“或許美國經濟並沒有驚人的強勁增長，也可以指出它的很多問題，”地緣政治諮詢機構歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)總裁伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)說。“但從穩定的角度來看，局面比較不穩定的時候，美國可以通過某種方式變得更強”，因爲人員和投資都會因爲美國的相對穩定，而受到吸引。

The truth is, not one of the problems that have flared across financial news tickers so far in 2016 is completely new or surprising. Rather, they are continuations of trends that were well established in 2015.

事實上，2016年到目前爲止，財經新聞裏冒出來的問題，沒有哪個是全新或出人意料的。它們其實延續了2015年即成的趨勢。

And as disturbing as it may be to see tensions rise between the nations on either side of the Persian Gulf, conflict in the Middle East is not exactly new. Usually the way those tensions ripple through the global economy is by driving the cost of oil up; instead, the opposite is happening.

儘管波斯灣兩側的兩個國家之間緊張局勢開始加劇，這讓人很擔憂，然而中東地區的衝突並不完全是新問題。這種緊張局面對全球經濟產生衝擊的方式，通常是驅使石油價格提高，然而現在發生的情形恰恰相反。

Oil prices fell to $37 a barrel from around $53 a barrel over the course of last year, and are now under $34. The Shanghai Composite Index fell sharply starting in June of last year, and even after steep declines in the opening days of 2016 is above its late-August level (though it is anybody’s guess how much it would have fallen absent a string of government interventions to try to stanch the declines).

石油價格在去年一年從每桶53美元，下降到了37美元，現在則降到了34美元以下。上證綜合指數去年6月開始遭遇重挫，儘管2016年開局的幾天時間裏也大幅下跌，但仍高於8月底的水平（不過誰都不知道，如果政府沒有采取一系列干預措施來遏制頹勢，行情會下跌到何種程度）。

Economic growth has been slowing not just in China but across many emerging markets, including Brazil and Nigeria, for two years now. Europe and Japan are growing only barely, and even formerly hot advanced economies like Canada are suffering from the commodity glut.

不僅中國的經濟增長出現放緩，許多新興市場國家也出現了放緩，包括巴西、尼日利亞，而且放緩態勢現在已經延續了兩年。歐洲和日本幾乎沒有增長，曾經蓬勃增長的發達經濟體，如加拿大，也因大宗商品供過於求而面臨壓力。

Against that gloomy backdrop, the consensus economic forecasts for the United States — the International Monetary Fund forecasts 2.8 percent growth in 2016 — look pretty terrific. The American stock market indexes, despite the global sell-off and major hits to oil companies’ earnings, remain above their September levels.

在這種悲觀的背景下，對於美國經濟增長預期的共識顯得相當不錯——國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)預期美國2016年會增長2.8%。儘管全球市場下行，石油企業營收受到衝擊，但是美國股市的指數仍然高於去年9月的水平。

But there are two basic questions about the notion that the United States can serve as an island of economic and political stability in a messy world.

但美國能在混亂的世界中，成爲一個經濟和政治都穩定的孤島的想法，卻面臨着兩個基本問題。

First, what happens if that changes? Second, what happens if it doesn’t?

首先，如果事情起了變化，會發生什麼？其次，如果不變，又會發生什麼？

The “things change” scenario is the risk that these global headwinds become too powerful for the United States to overcome.

“事情起變化”的情形所構成的風險是，全球經濟的逆風太強，美國無法克服。

Already, oil producers and their suppliers are suffering. The American industrial sector is groaning under the weight of a strong dollar, which drives up the price of exported goods. That’s a consequence of the mismatch between growth in the United States and the rest of the world.

石油生產者和它們的供應商已經承受了壓力。由於美元走強，美國的出口商品價格提高，於是美國工業界在重壓之下痛苦不堪。這就是美國增長與世界其他地區局面的錯配產生的後果。

The strength in the service sector and the broader consumer economy in the United States has offset any damage so far. But the 2008 crisis showed how the global economy is intertwined in ways that are hard to predict — and that’s before accounting for the geopolitical dangers from the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula that could cause major economic disruptions if they take a dark turn.

美國服務業及更廣泛的消費經濟的強勁勢頭，衝抵了目前遭遇的衝擊。但2008年的危機顯示出，全球經濟會以始料未及的方式糾纏在一起——而且這還沒有考慮中東和朝鮮半島可能發生的地緣政治危險，如果那裏的問題出現惡化，就可能會極大地干擾經濟。

If something does go wrong, the usual buffers in the global economy look to be weakened or nonexistent right now. Government deficits are high in much of the world, and even where they aren’t, political leaders have shown no desire to open the spending floodgates in an effort to boost economies. If the American economy were to slump and President Obama were to ask the Republican Congress for fiscal stimulus, it would give new meaning to “Dead on Arrival.”

一旦有什麼問題出了差池，就會很麻煩，因爲全球經濟中通常存在的緩衝器目前似乎受到了削弱，甚至已不復存在。在世界很多國家，政府赤字都很高，在那些赤字不高的國家，政治領袖也沒有表現出擴大開支，從而支撐經濟的意願。如果美國經濟走軟，奧巴馬總統就需要請求共和黨控制的國會批准財政刺激——到時候經濟恐怕就無藥可救了。

And central banks have flooded the world with so much easy money that it’s not clear what further benefit new efforts would have — why, for example, would we try a fourth round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve?

各國央行也已經向全球注入了太多廉價的資金，並不清楚採取新舉措還能進一步產生什麼效果。比如，爲什麼要嘗試讓美聯儲(Federal Reserve)實行第四輪量化寬鬆呢？

Then there’s the less obvious risk from this mismatch between what is happening in the United States and the rest of the world — the risk of what happens if it doesn’t change.

此外還有不太明顯的風險，即美國的狀況與世界其他地方的狀況之間的錯配——如果這種局面不改變，會產生怎樣的風險？

During the years running up to the 2008 crisis, the United States served as the global consumer of last resort. Americans kept shopping when the rest of the world hunkered down. The side effect of that role in the global economy was constantly increasing debt, which in the pre-crisis era frequently took the form of mortgage-related securities.

在2008年危機爆發之前的數年裏，美國爲全球充當了“最終消費者”的角色。其他國家儉省節約的時候，美國人一直在購物。在全球經濟中扮演這一角色的副作用是債務不斷提升，而這在危機之前的時期，時常表現爲債務抵押債券的形式。

The longer other global economies remain a mess and the United States remains on a relatively steady course, the more these same forces will reassert themselves. This means that an ever-strengthening dollar will hobble American exporters while fueling an American consumption binge. Broadly, it would mean that crisis-era hopes of a more balanced global economy might not come to fruition.

全球其他經濟體處在混亂之中，而美國相對穩定的局面持續得越久，同樣的這些力量就越會重新發揮作用。這意味着不斷走強的美元會傷害美國的出口企業，進而誘發美國人大肆消費。更廣泛的後果則是，這或許意味着危機時期的那種讓全球經濟更平衡的希望，可能不會成爲現實。

In other words, the best thing that could happen for the global economy would be for the mismatch between the United States and the rest of the world to end — and not because the United States falters. Rather, it would happen if Europe and Japan achieved more rapid growth, China managed its shift toward a more consumer-driven economy and other emerging markets weathered a tough year while continuing their progress toward stable and sustainable growth.

換句話說，全球經濟最好的局面將是，美國與世界其他地區之間的錯配能夠結束——而且手段不能是讓美國跌跟頭，而是要讓歐洲和日本取得更快的增長，中國實現轉型，讓經濟更多地由消費驅動，其他新興市場挺過艱難的一年，仍然繼續成長，並實現穩定和可持續的增長。

It’s a tall order for a world full of unpredictable risks. Good thing 2016 has another 51 weeks to go.

但對於這個充滿了無法預測的風險的世界，上述要求未免苛刻。2016年能否一帆風順，還要看未來的51個星期。