全球經濟加大對美國的依賴
Financial markets are like small children. They find it hard to focus on More than two things at once.” That is the conclusion drawn by one of my colleagues after a lifetime of professional investing.
“金融市場就像是小孩子。他們很難同時對兩件事保持注意力。”這是我的一位同事在從事了一輩子專業投資工作之後得出的結論。
Whether small children can focus on anything at all is a matter for debate. Chocolate, perhaps. But he has a point when it comes to global markets. Investors have been so focused on the Brexit vote and its aftermath that they have missed the big picture, which is that the global economy is still worryingly dependent on US growth and the extreme efforts of central banks.
小孩子到底能不能對某些事物保持注意力，是個值得討論的問題。對巧克力或許可以。但關於全球市場，他說得有道理。投資者一直以來太關注英國脫歐公投及其後果了，以至於沒有看到全景：全球經濟仍令人擔憂地依賴美國經濟增長，以及各國央行的非常措施。
There was a fear, in the days after the EU referendum, that Britain’s troubles would sink the global recovery. But investors have decided that for stocks and bonds this shock is actually a win-win. Why? Because growth will not be much affected outside the UK, but central banks will keep monetary policy looser than it would otherwise have been, just to be safe. That explains why stock markets are reaching new highs, even in the UK, and long-term interest rates are lower in most countries than they were on June 23.
在英國脫歐公投之後的日子裏，人們擔心，英國的麻煩將毀掉全球復甦。但投資者們認爲，對於股市和債市而言，這一衝擊實際上是一種雙贏。爲什麼？因爲，英國以外地區的經濟增長將不會受到太大影響，但爲了安全起見，各國央行的貨幣政策將比假如未發生英國公投的情況更寬鬆。正因如此，世界各地、甚至英國的股市都在屢創新高，而大多數國家的長期利率也低於6月23日的水平。
This time last year, the obsession was China and the mood was rather different. Stock markets, you will remember, fell around the world when the Chinese authorities announced a surprise depreciation of the renminbi against the dollar. The fear was that a deflating Chinese economy would export its falling prices to the rest of the world via a lower exchange rate and take another bite out of growth in emerging markets.
去年此時，市場的關注焦點是中國，氛圍也迥然不同。你不會忘記，當中國當局出乎意料地宣佈人民幣對美元貶值時，全球股市紛紛下跌。人們擔心，陷入通縮的中國經濟將通過貨幣貶值把價格下降輸出至世界其他地區，並進一步拉低新興市場的增長率。
Funnily enough, the Chinese currency has been falling again recently — by 3 per cent against the dollar in the past three months. That is bigger than the fall last summer but no one seems to care at all. It would be nice to believe that this was because the world is in a stronger position to cope with a deflationary China than a year ago. I fear it is because investors simply have not been paying attention.
有趣的是，人民幣近來再次不斷貶值，在過去3個月裏對美元下跌了3%。這一跌幅大於去年夏季，但似乎誰也不在乎這一點。人們可以認爲，這是因爲今天的世界比一年前更有能力應對中國的通縮。但我擔心，這是因爲投資者根本沒有予以關注。
It is true that this depreciation feels somewhat more controlled. What spooked investors about China last summer was the feeling of chaos — the mixed messages about the renminbi and the frantic moves to prop up the domestic stock market all had a whiff of panic. If the authorities could not achieve a smooth transition for the exchange rate, how were they going to deliver one for the broader economy?
沒錯，此次人民幣貶值讓人感覺或多或少更受控制。去年夏季中國嚇到投資者的是混亂感——有關人民幣的混亂信息和支撐國內股市的慌亂之舉，都透露出一絲恐慌。如果當局不能實現人民幣匯率的平穩過渡，那麼他們將如何實現宏觀經濟的順利轉型？
It feels different this time because those in charge have a plan, and the currency is supposedly now linked not to the dollar but to a broader basket of currencies known as the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. But anyone who has been watching closely would have noticed that the authorities only follow the new system when it allows the renminbi to fall. When the CFETS was rising against the dollar in the first part of the year, the Chinese currency did not rise with it. The net result is that the renminbi is nearly 6 per cent weaker on a trade-weighted basis than it was at the start of the year.
這次給人的感覺不一樣，因爲相關負責部門有所計劃，並且如今人民幣應該不是與美元掛鉤，而是與中國外匯交易中心(CFETS)的一籃子貨幣掛鉤。但任何一直密切關注人民幣匯率的人士都應已注意到，唯有允許人民幣貶值時，中國當局纔會遵循這套新制度。當今年頭幾個月CFETS一籃子貨幣對美元升值時，人民幣並未隨之升值。最終結果是，人民幣貿易加權匯率較年初下跌了近6%。
On the surface, China’s economy does look less scary than it did a year ago. The authorities, though, are using the same tools to support growth that they used in the past — public investment and subsidised credit. Fixed asset investment by state-owned companies grew by more than 20 per cent, year on year, in the past three months.
在表面上看，中國經濟確實不像一年前那麼令人擔憂了。不過，當局正在使用過去慣用的工具——公共投資和補貼信貸——去支撐增長。過去3個月裏，國企的固定資產投資同比增加逾20%。
Big picture: China might be more stable but is no closer to resolving its structural and financial imbalances than it was a year ago, and it is still exporting disinflation to the rest of the world via a weaker exchange rate. US import prices from China fell by 3 per cent in June, the largest monthly drop since 2013.
全景：與一年前相比，中國或許更穩定，但距離解決結構與金融失衡並未更近一步，並且仍在通過貨幣貶值向世界其他地區輸出通縮。6月，美國從中國進口商品價格下降了3%，爲2013年以來最大月度跌幅。
The US can probably shrug off this imported deflation because domestic prices — and, finally, wages — are picking up as the domestic consumer-led recovery continues. Globally, however, the picture is not nearly as strong. The International Monetary Fund’s forecasts, released last week, show global consumer inflation for advanced countries at just 0.7 per cent in 2016. The central banks in the US and the UK are the only ones in the developed world that are expected to achieve inflation at or above the targeted 2 per cent by 2017.
美國很可能對這種輸入的通縮不予理睬，因爲隨着國內消費驅動的復甦繼續，國內價格——以及最終的工資——都在上升。然而，全球來看，局面就沒有這麼樂觀了。上週發佈的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預測顯示，2016年發達國家消費價格漲幅僅爲0.7%。到2017年，發達世界中唯有美英兩國央行有望實現或超過2%的通脹率目標。
Those new IMF forecasts are helpful, not because they are likely to be right, but because they let us step back from the day-to-day stories to see how global growth expectations have changed over time. At 3.1 per cent, the new growth forecast for 2016 was only slightly lower than the April number. This was taken as more evidence that the negative effects of Brexit are likely to be centred on the UK. But a year ago the fund was expecting global growth this year to be 3.8 per cent, and growth for the advanced economies to be 2.4 per cent. Now its best guess is for growth of 1.8 per cent in those countries — not just in 2016 but in 2017 as well. The forecast for world trade has also been slashed, yet again. We have now had six consecutive years when world trade has been flat or falling as a share of global gross domestic product.
IMF的這些新預測是有幫助的，原因不在於其可能是正確的，而在於其讓我們從日常新聞中抽身出來，看看全球增長預期是如何隨着時間推移而變化的。新的2016年全球增長預測爲3.1%，僅僅略低於4月的預測值。這被視爲英國脫歐的負面影響可能集中於英國一國的更多證據。但一年前，IMF預計今年全球增長率可達3.8%，發達經濟體增長率可達2.4%。而現在發達經濟體增長率最樂觀的估計只有1.8%，不但2016年，而且2017年也是如此。世界貿易增長預期也被再次大幅調低。世界貿易佔全球GDP的比例已連續六年與上一年持平或者下降。
None of this suggests that the global recovery is about to grind to a halt. It does remind us that the world is expecting an awful lot of the US right now, and an awful lot of its central bank. The US has managed a respectable recovery, despite a deeply needy global economy and an unhelpful rise in the dollar. Investors are betting that this can continue, despite the dysfunctional cacophony coming out of the party conventions. We should all hope they are right. The world does not have a plan B.
以上所有並非暗示全球復甦將陷入停頓，但確實提醒我們，目前世界對美國和美國央行的期待非常之大。儘管全球經濟面臨極大困難，美元又出現毫無益處的升值，美國仍實現了相當不錯的復甦。投資者開始押注這一趨勢可能持續下去，儘管政黨的全國代表大會上傳出了異常的刺耳之聲。我們都應當希望他們是對的。世界沒有B計劃。
