中國經濟反彈推高全球碳排放量

Stronger Chinese economic growth will push global greenhouse gas emissions to a record high in 2017 after remaining flat for three years, dashing tentative hopes of a turning point in the world’s efforts to curb climate change.

更強勁的中國經濟增長將使全球溫室氣體排放量在連續三年持平後在2017年創下歷史新高，粉碎人們對於世界遏制氣候變化的努力已經達到轉折點的初步希望。

A new report by the Global Carbon Project, an international research consortium, predicts that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry will rise 2 per cent this year. The report was released at the UN climate change meeting in Bonn on Monday.

國際研究聯盟“全球碳計劃”(Global Carbon Project)的一份新報告預測，今年化石燃料和工業活動產生的二氧化碳排放量將增長2%。這份報告是週一在波恩舉行的聯合國氣候變化會議上公佈的。

The increase — which is largely caused by China and developing countries — suggests the world is straying further from the course set at the landmark UN conference in Paris two years ago. Countries agreed at the time to limit the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2oC from the pre-industrial era. But scientists warn that the emission reduction pledges made by individual governments since then do not go far enough to secure that overarching goal.

主要由中國和發展中國家造成的這一增長似乎表明，世界正在進一步偏離兩年前在巴黎舉行的具有里程碑意義的聯合國會議上設定的路線。當時各國同意將全球升溫幅度限制在不超過工業化之前水平2攝氏度的範圍。但是科學家們警告稱，自那以來各國政府作出的減排承諾不足以達到這個總體目標。

“Emissions are following what countries have pledged — but what countries have pledged is nowhere near enough to meet the Paris objective,” said Glen Peters, co-author of the report and research director at the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo.

“排放量符合各國的承諾，但是各國作出的承諾遠遠不足以達到巴黎會議的目標，”報告聯名作者、奧斯陸國際氣候研究中心(Center for International Climate Research)研究主任戈蘭?彼得斯(Glen Peters)表示。

This year’s rise is especially disappointing as it follows three years of almost no growth in emissions despite a world economy expanding at a steady clip. In 2016, emissions were flat even though the world economy grew 3.2 per cent. One explanation for the uptick is that China’s economic slowdown in the middle part of this decade was more pronounced than official figures suggested.

今年的排放量增長特別令人失望，因爲此前三年儘管世界經濟穩步擴張，但排放量幾乎沒有增長。2016年世界經濟增長3.2%，而排放量持平。對排放增加的一個解釋是，中國在本10年中期的經濟放緩要比官方數字所顯示的更爲嚴重。

The GPC report concludes: “The world has not reached peak emissions yet.”

全球碳計劃的報告得出結論認爲：“世界尚未達到排放頂峯。”

It finds that carbon dioxide emissions decreased in 22 countries accounting for 20 per cent of global emissions, but rose in 101 countries that together represent 50 per cent of pollution. China is predicted to see a 3.5 per cent jump in emissions in 2017. As the biggest producer of carbon dioxide in the world, China plays a crucial role in shifting the global trend.

報告發現，佔全球排放量20%的22個國家的二氧化碳排放量有所下降，而佔污染總量50%的101個國家的二氧化碳排放量出現上升。預計中國2017年排放量將增加3.5%。作爲世界最大的二氧化碳排放國，中國在改變全球趨勢方面扮演着至關重要的角色。

Emissions began rising again in China this year, after the recovery in coal and steel prices last year heralded a more general economic revival.

今年中國的排放量又開始上升，此前煤炭和鋼鐵價格在去年出現反彈，預示了更爲普遍的經濟復甦。

The Chinese recovery follows a four-year economic slump lasting from 2012 to 2016 in the provinces of the coal-intensive North China plain, and the surrounding resource-rich regions including China’s coal-dependent neighbour to the north, Mongolia. Although the slowdown devastated Mongolia’s economy, it was generally not reflected in China’s official economic data.

此輪復甦出現之前，華北平原的煤炭大省，以及周邊的資源豐富地區（包括依賴煤炭的鄰國蒙古）在2012年至2016年經歷了四年的經濟低迷。這次低迷重創了蒙古經濟，而從中國的官方經濟數據基本上看不出低迷。

The Financial Times has called into question provincial data across northern China during the period. Beijing has acknowledged that data were faked or inaccurate from Liaoning, an industrial province in the north-east, but has not revised its statistics from other problematic provinces.

在那幾年期間，英國《金融時報》曾對華北各省的數據提出質疑。北京方面現已承認東北工業大省遼寧的數據是虛報或不準確的，但沒有修正其他有問題省份的統計數據。

The recent rise in China’s emissions adds weight to the idea that the officially unacknowledged economic slowdown translated into a flattening out of China’s carbon emissions, and therefore of the world’s. This is backed by flat or slightly lower production of coal, steel and cement during the period since 2012. Those industries contribute heavily to Chinese emissions of greenhouse gases.

近期中國排放量上升給一個觀點增添了份量，即之前是官方從未承認的經濟放緩使得中國乃至世界的碳排放量走平。2012年之後煤炭、鋼鐵和水泥產量持平或略微降低的情況支持這一觀點。那些行業在相當大程度上加劇中國的溫室氣體排放。

Climate change negotiators had cheered the flattening of emissions, arguing that Chinese commitments to the Paris accord were responsible. However, the close correlation between Chinese emissions and economic activity in North China calls into question the argument that an authoritarian government can simply ordain improvement without outside oversight or the structural changes that reduce the incentives to pollute.

氣候變化談判代表曾爲排放量走平叫好，辯稱中國對巴黎協定的承諾是負責任的。然而，中國的排放量與華北地區經濟活動之間的密切關聯，令人質疑這樣一個論點，即在沒有外部監督、也沒有推行減少污染誘因的結構性改變的情況下，一個威權政府能夠就這麼簡單地下令實現好轉。

As emissions output has increased, Beijing has launched an unprecedented round of inspections and shutdowns of polluting factories and steel mills in northern China.

隨着排放量增加，北京方面已在華北地區發起空前的督查行動，關停污染嚴重的工廠和鋼廠。

However, it has also bowed to the interests of its powerful coal industry by permitting heavily polluting coal conversion plants and switching some of its power generation capacity from coal to gas made from coal. This has the effect of spreading air pollution as well as unsustainably intensive water use from its wealthier eastern cities to its poorer inland and frontier provinces.

但是，官方也照顧強大的煤炭行業的利益，允許污染嚴重的煤轉化工廠繼續運行，並將一部分發電來源從煤炭轉向煤制天然氣。這產生了擴散空氣污染的影響，並且把不可持續的大量用水的做法從東部較富裕的城市傳播到較貧窮的內陸和邊疆省份。

China’s commitment to the Paris accord anticipates that its emissions will continue to rise until about 2030, a projection derived from economic growth projections, the use of more hydropower dams and nuclear reactors, and assumptions that energy intensity will fall as the world’s largest economy matures.

根據中國對巴黎協定作出的承諾，中國的排放量將持續上升至2030年左右，這個預測基於經濟增長預測、對更多水電站和核電站的使用，以及這樣一個假設，即隨着世界第二大經濟體逐漸成熟，其能源強度將下降。