國際貨幣基金組織下調全球經濟增長預期
The International Monetary Fund is downgrading its outlook for the world economy, citing rising interest rates and growing tensions over trade.
The IMF said Monday that the global economy will grow 3.7 percent this year, the same as in 2017 but down from the 3.9 percent it was forecasting for 2018 in July. It slashed its outlook for the 19 countries that use the euro currency and for Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report comes on the eve of the Oct. 12-14 meetings in Bali, Indonesia, of the IMF and its sister lending organization, the World bank.
The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2005 and unchanged from the July forecast. But it predicts that U.S. growth will slow to 2.5 percent next year as the effect of recent tax cuts wears off and as President Donald Trump's trade war with China takes a toll.
The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, has raised short-term U.S. rates three times this year as the American economy gains strength more than nine years after the end of the Great Recession.
The fund kept its forecast for growth in the Chinese economy unchanged at 6.6 percent this year. Citing the impact of U.S. taxes on Chinese imports, however, the IMF shaved the outlook for China next year to 6.2 percent, which would be the country's slowest growth since 1990.
The outlook for world trade overall also darkened: The fund expects global trade to grow 4.2 percent this year, down from 5.2 percent in 2017 and from the 4.8 percent it expected in July.國際貨幣基金組織下調對全球經濟增長的預期，原因是利率上升和貿易緊張局勢加劇。
國際貨幣基金組織週一表示，全球經濟今年將增長3.7％，與2017年相同，但低於7月份提出的3.9％的預測。該組織還下調了對歐元區的19個國家以及中歐和東歐、拉丁美洲、中東和撒哈拉以南非洲的經濟前景。
此報告公佈之際，國際貨幣基金組織及其姊妹貸款組織世界銀行將於於10月12日至14日在印度尼西亞巴厘島舉行會議。
國際貨幣基金組織預計美國經濟今年將增長2.9％，是自2005年以來的最快速度，與7月的預測相同。但明年美國經濟增長將放緩至2.5％，原因是近期減稅的影響正在消退，特朗普政府與中國的貿易戰也會造成損失。
由於美國經濟在大衰退結束後9年多來越來越強勁，美聯儲今年已經三次提高短期借貸利率。
國際貨幣基金組織將今年中國經濟增長預期維持在6.6％不變，不過指出由於美國對中國進口產品加徵關稅產生的影響，預計明年將削減至6.2％，這將是中國自1990年以來增長最緩慢的一年。
國際貨幣基金組織對整個全球貿易的前景也看淡：該基金預計今年全球貿易增長4.2％，低於2017年的5.2％和7月預期的4.8％。
