中國經濟疲弱對全球影響甚微

Stock market volatility and a small currency devaluation have in the past few months caused the financial community to take note of Chinese economic weakness. A natural question is what effect this weakness will have on the rest of the world. The answer is very little, with most important reason being that China has not truly contributed to the global economy for at least four years.

過去幾個月中國的股市動盪和人民幣小幅貶值，使得金融圈人士注意到中國經濟的疲弱。他們自然要問，中國經濟疲弱將對世界其他地區產生何種影響。答案是，影響甚微，最重要的原因在於，至少4年裏中國沒有對全球經濟真正做出貢獻。

The idea that Chinese weakness threatens the world economy melds a number of misconceptions. The first is that the weakness is a new phenomenon. It was actually the initial stock market climb and a rising renminbi that were somewhat surprising; the ensuring partial corrections were late in coming, if anything.

認爲中國經濟疲弱對世界經濟構成威脅的觀點，融合了大量的錯誤觀念。第一個錯誤觀念是，這種疲弱是個新現象。實際上，當初的中國股市攀升和人民幣升值，纔多少出人意料；如果要說什麼的話，那就是註定發生的局部調整來得太晚了。

China’s economy began weakening no later than 2008, and probably before. A temporary upswing starting in late 2009 and continuing into 2010 was due to an unsustainable, unwise, and unprecedented explosion in debt. From 2011 on, ups and downs in the global economy have not been due to ups and downs in China – the trend in Chinese performance has been invariably down.

中國經濟開始走弱不遲於2008年，很可能還更早。始於2009年末並延續至2010年的一輪暫時上行，源於一場不可持續的、不明智的、前所未有的債務爆炸。從2011年開始，世界經濟的起伏便不再是由於中國經濟的起伏了——中國經濟表現的趨勢是一路下行。

To see this, it’s necessary to be more precise about the term “economy.” Economic growth can be understood as growth in inflation-adjusted (real) personal income. China has long contributed to global growth in real personal income by dampening inflation with low-cost production. A decade ago, this was an important role because inflation could have been considerably higher without low-cost Chinese production.

想要看出這一點，就有必要更精確地理解“經濟”這個術語。經濟增長可以理解爲經通脹調整的（實際）個人收入的增長。長期以來，中國以低成本生產壓低通脹，對全球實際個人收入增長做出了貢獻。10年前，這是一個非常重要的作用，因爲若沒有中國的低成本生產，全球通脹水平會高出很多。

Now, however, the world faces deflationary pressure and China’s deflationary contribution is extraneous, even excessive. Further, it is hard to see how China can be contributing on a net basis to higher nominal incomes overseas given that it remains a major production competitor and not presently capable of driving commodity prices higher.

不過，如今世界面臨通縮壓力，而中國增添了額外、甚至過大的通縮壓力。另外，鑑於中國仍是一個主要的競爭性生產大國，並且目前沒有能力推高大宗商品價格，我們很難看出，中國如何能夠對提高海外的名義收入做出淨貢獻。

Of course, the standard way of discussing the economy is to use gross domestic product (GDP). Most commentators use GDP and “the economy” interchangeably. This is a clear and misleading error. The economy is not tiny in the middle of January, as GDP is. GDP per person has no value – just try to spend it.

當然，討論經濟問題的標準辦法是使用國內生產總值(GDP)。大多數評論員使用GDP和“經濟”時，兩者是可以相互替換的。這是一個明顯的誤導性錯誤。在1月中旬的時候，GDP很小，經濟卻不小。人均GDP沒有價值——不然嘗試把它花掉試試。

GDP does make China look very important. The IMF routinely ranks China as the leading contributor to global GDP growth. At best, this is a very strange notion of a contributor. China raises the global GDP growth average, if its official statistics are accurate. If Beijing were ever to acknowledge that GDP growth was, say, four percent instead of seven, average global GDP growth would fall.

GDP確實使中國顯得非常重要。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)經常把中國列爲對全球GDP增長貢獻最大的國家。但

To put it succinctly: who cares? In a situation where a Chinese GDP growth drop lowers the world average, the rest of the world has not changed. This is not a global recession in any meaningful sense.

IMF所說的充其量是一種很奇怪意義上的貢獻者。如果中國官方統計數據準確的話，中國提高了全球GDP增長率的平均值。而如果北京方面承認GDP增長率不是7%，而是比如說4%的話，那麼全球GDP增長率均值將會下降。

More important, China does not contribute to the rest of the world’s GDP. It detracts from it, even when China is in fact contributing to the global economy. This is because a trade surplus (net exports) is counted as a positive in GDP and a deficit is counted as a negative. Treating trade in this way does not make much sense but those using GDP to heighten China’s importance to the world are stuck with its definition.

簡單說，誰會在意呢？即便中國GDP增速下跌拉低全球均值，世界其他地區也沒有變化。這並非任何真正意義上的全球衰退。

China’s official trade surplus – its huge goods surplus and sizable services deficit combined –was roughly $180bn last year. This constitutes $180bn subtracted from the rest of the world’s GDP. China has been running large trade surpluses for a decade, each and every year subtracting from the rest of the world’s GDP, not contributing.

更重要的是，中國並未對世界其他地區的GDP做出貢獻。即便中國確實在對全球經濟做出貢獻，它也同時在減少其他地區的GDP。這是因爲，貿易順差（淨出口）在GDP中被計爲正數，而貿易逆差被計爲負數。以這種方式對待貿易並無太大意義，但那些用GDP突出中國對世界重要性的人，受到GDP定義的束縛。

Slower Chinese GDP growth would, in itself, mean nothing at all to anyone outside the country. What matters to GDP is the size of the trade surplus. If it rises, then rest-of-world GDP falls by that amount (everything else constant). In this case, the trade surplus is also a reasonable representative for China’s true impact on the world. A rising surplus says China is pushing down prices around, intensifying existing deflation.

去年，中國的官方貿易順差——巨大的商品貿易順差和不低的服務貿易逆差之和——約爲3800億美元。這就使世界其他地區的GDP減少了3800億美元。中國過去10年都出現高額貿易順差，每年都減少、而不是增加世界其他地區的GDP。

It is often the case that GDP does not matter and it is typically the case that China’s claimed GDP does not matter. To evaluate China’s impact on the world economy, ignore GDP and start with trade.

中國GDP增長率下降本身對其他地區並不產生絲毫意義。對GDP重要的是貿易順差的規模。如果中國貿易順差上升，那麼世界其他地區GDP將相應減少（其他所有條件不變的話）。在這種情況下，貿易順差也是表明中國對世界真實影響的一個合理指標。中國貿易順差上升表明，中國正在壓低全球價格，加劇既有通縮局面。

Derek M. Scissors is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute

GDP常常是不重要的，而中國公佈的GDP尤其不重要。想要評估中國對世界經濟的影響，請忽略GDP，從貿易着手。