IMF下調今年全球經濟增長預測

The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its annual global growth forecast as poorer-than-expected US growth contributed to a sluggish start to the year.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)下調了今年的全球增長預測。遜於預期的美國增長數據加劇了年初的開局低迷。

In an update to its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF reduced its growth projection for 2015 to 3.3 per cent from 3.5 after a disappointing first quarter, particularly in the US.

在一年兩次的最新《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)中，IMF將其對2015年的經濟增長預測從3.5%下調至3.3%，今年第一季度數據令人失望，尤其是美國。

However, the Fund left its prediction for next year unvaried at 3.8 per cent, while slightly upgrading the outlook for the eurozone from 1.6 per cent to 1.7 per cent. Spain and Italy are expected to expand faster than previously thought in both 2015 and 2016. “The underlying drivers for a gradual acceleration in economic activity in advanced economies . . . remain intact,” the IMF said.

然而，IMF對明年的經濟增長預測保持不變，仍爲3.8%，同時IMF將其對歐元區的增長預測從1.6%上調至1.7%。預計西班牙和意大利今明兩年的經濟增速都將快於之前的預期。IMF表示：“推動發達經濟體經濟活動逐漸加速的根本因素……仍未改變。”

The IMF dismissed fears that the Greek crisis will slow down the global economic recovery, leaving its medium-term economic forecasts unchanged in spite of the growing risk of a “Grexit”.

IMF排除了希臘危機將放慢全球經濟復甦的擔憂。儘管希臘退出歐元區的風險日益加大，但IMF對中期經濟增長的預測保持不變。

The prolonged stand-off between Greece and its international creditors over a new rescue programme could force Athens to leave the eurozone as early as next week, making it the first country to leave the currency union since its creation in 1999.

希臘與國際債權人之間圍繞新版紓困計劃的持續僵局，可能會迫使希臘最早於下週脫離歐元區，這將令該國成爲自歐元區1999年誕生以來首個退出的國家。

The Fund struck a relatively upbeat note on the Greek crisis, saying that “developments in Greece have, so far, not resulted in significant contagion”.

IMF對於希臘危機的看法相對樂觀，表示“到目前爲止，希臘的事態還沒有導致顯著蔓延。”

The IMF slashed growth forecasts for the US economy this year from 3.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent. It downgraded its outlook for Japan and the UK by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points to 0.8 and 2.4 per cent respectively.

IMF將其對美國今年的經濟增長預測從3.1%調降至2.5%。IMF還將其對日本和英國的經濟增長預測分別下調0.2和0.3個百分點，至0.8%和2.4%。

The Fund largely explained these revisions as the result of one-off factors in the first quarter, including harsh US winter weather.

IMF把這些數據修正主要歸因於第一季度的一次性因素，包括美國的冬季嚴寒天氣。

The Fund is more pessimistic about future developments in emerging markets, where growth is expected to decelerate from 4.6 per cent last year to 4.2 per cent in 2015 — a touch slower than expected last April.

IMF對於新興市場的未來發展較爲悲觀，該機構預測，新興市場的經濟增速將從去年的4.6%降至今年的4.2%，略低於4月的預測。

The outlook for China and India was left unchanged, while the Fund slashed its forecasts for this year for Mexico and Brazil by 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points, to 2.4 per cent and -1.5 per cent.

中國和印度的增長前景沒有變化，同時IMF將其對墨西哥和巴西的今年增長預測分別調降0.6和0.5個百分點，至2.4%和-1.5%。

In spite of the relative optimism about the Greek crisis, the Fund believes there remain risks for the global economic recovery including a re-emergence of financial stress in the eurozone periphery and difficulties in the transition of China’s economy from an investment- and export-driven growth model to one more based on consumption.

儘管IMF對於希臘危機相對樂觀，但該機構認爲，全球經濟復甦仍存在風險，包括歐元區外圍國家金融壓力再度出現，以及中國經濟在從投資和出口拉動型增長模式轉向消費拉動型增長模式過程中的困難。