特朗普面臨五大外交政策選擇
Donald Trump seems to have brought the techniques of Twitter to the construction of his government.
唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎將Twitter手法引入了他的政府建設。
Trolling on Twitter is defined as making a deliberately offensive online posting with the aim of upsetting someone.
Twitter上的惡意挑釁被定義爲故意在線發佈攻擊性的帖子，目的是讓某人不高興。
In this spirit, Mr Trump has placed a climate-change denier in charge of environmental protection, an opponent of the minimum wage as labour secretary, a conspiracy theorist in charge of the National Security Council and a protectionist at the commerce department.
本着這種精神，特朗普讓一名不承認氣候變化的人負責環保事務，讓反對最低工資的人擔任勞工部長，讓陰謀論者執掌國家安全委員會，讓保護主義者擔任商務部長。
The pièce de résistance could be the appointment of Rex Tillerson, a recipient of the Kremlin’s Order of Friendship, as secretary of state.
最出格的是可能是將克里姆林宮友誼勳章得主雷克斯.蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)任命爲國務卿（譯者注：特朗普已任命蒂勒森出任國務卿）。
The incredulity and alarm that Mr Trump’s appointments have caused in the Washington establishment are compounded by his disdain for the government’s own experts.
特朗普任命的人選引起了華盛頓建制派的錯愕和震驚，更嚴重的是，他輕視政府自己的專家。
Mr Trump took a controversial phone call from the president of Taiwan without consulting the state department.
特朗普在沒有徵詢美國國務院的情況下就與臺灣總統進行了有爭議的電話交談。
Now he has ridiculed the CIA for suggesting that Russia meddled in the US presidential election.
現在，他又嘲諷美國中央情報局(CIA)關於俄羅斯干預美國總統選舉的說法。
Mr Trump’s appointments, tweets and phone calls, however, cannot yet do more than hint at future changes in America’s approach to the world.
然而，特朗普的人事任命、推文和電話除了暗示美國對外政策的未來變化之外，尚不能說明太多問題。
The real shifts can only happen after the new president is actually sworn into office on January 20.
真正的轉變只可能發生在2017年1月20日新總統真正就任以後。
For now, it is much easier to identify five big choices that face him, than to predict eventual outcomes.
就目前而言，梳理他面臨的5大選擇，遠比預測最終結局容易得多。
Russia: Both Mr Trump’s rhetoric and his early appointments indicate a strong desire for a rapprochement with Russia.
俄羅斯：特朗普的言辭和他的初步人事任命表明，他強烈希望與俄羅斯和解。
The Kremlin clearly hopes that the US will lift the economic sanctions imposed on Russia after its annexation of Crimea.
克里姆林宮顯然希望，美國將會解除在俄羅斯吞併克里米亞之後對其實施的經濟制裁。
Mr Trump could also make common cause with Vladimir Putin in Syria, by dropping America’s insistence on the removal of Bashar al-Assad.
特朗普也可能放棄美國要求巴沙爾.阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)下臺的立場，從而與弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)在敘利亞問題上攜手合作。
But making these changes will be very controversial.
但做出這些改變將會引起極大爭議。
Russia’s intervention on behalf of Mr Trump during the election, combined with the expected appointment of Mr Tillerson, have excited lurid speculation about the real nature of Mr Trump’s relationship with Russia.
俄羅斯在美國大選期間進行有利於特朗普的干預，再加上對蒂勒森的任命，激發了人們對於特朗普與俄羅斯之間究竟存在什麼關係的駭人猜測。
Even without conspiracy theories, there will be considerable resistance by influential members of congress — including prominent Republicans like John McCain and Lindsey Graham — to a Trump-Putin love-in.
即便沒有陰謀論，有影響力的國會重量級人物——包括約翰.麥凱恩(John McCain)和林賽.格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)等知名共和黨人——也會堅決阻止特朗普和普京結盟。
Europe: While Mr Trump has been extravagant in his praise of Mr Putin, he has been open in his contempt for Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, describing her refugee policies as insane.
歐洲：在對普京讚不絕口的同時，特朗普公開蔑視德國總理安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)，形容她的難民政策瘋了。
There is now fear in the French and German governments that Mr Trump may seek to help the European far-right by supporting Marine Le Pen in the French presidential elections in May, or the Alternative for Germany in the country’s elections in September.
法國和德國政府現在擔心，特朗普可能尋求幫助歐洲極右勢力，在明年5月的法國總統大選中支持馬琳.勒龐(Marine Le Pen)，或者在明年9月的德國選舉中支持德國新選擇黨(Alternative for Germany)。
In that case, both the Kremlin and the White House would be working towards the defeat of the German chancellor.
那種情況意味着克里姆林宮和白宮聯手推動默克爾敗選。
Such a scenario sounds unthinkable.
這聽起來不堪設想。
But Mr Trump has also described the Nato alliance as obsolete.
但特朗普還曾經形容北約(NATO)過時。
Any genuine attempt to weaken Nato, or to undermine the governments of European allies would, however, encounter fierce resistance in Congress and the media, and could undermine his presidency.
然而，如果特朗普真的嘗試削弱北約或者削弱歐洲盟友的政府，他會遭到美國國會和媒體的激烈抵制，這可能削弱他作爲總統的地位。
Iran: Reversing US policy on Iran would be much easier for Mr Trump.
伊朗：對特朗普來說，扭轉美國對伊政策要容易得多。
Republicans in Congress share his disdain for Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.
和他一樣，國會中的共和黨人也不喜歡巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)與伊朗達成的核協議。
Some of Mr Trump’s key appointees — including General Michael Flynn, his national security adviser — are particularly noted for their hostility towards Iran.
特朗普任命的一些關鍵人選——包括其國家安全顧問邁克爾.弗林(Michael Flynn)——對伊朗尤其反感。
Ripping up the nuclear deal could put the US on the road to a war with Iran.
撕毀核協議可能讓美國走上與伊朗開戰之路。
Some of Mr Trump’s advisers may want precisely that outcome.
這可能正是特朗普的一些幕僚想要的結果。
But it is less clear that the president-elect, who claims to have opposed the Iraq war, really has an appetite for another conflict in the Middle East.
但目前不太清楚的是，號稱反對伊拉克戰爭的當選總統，是否真的有胃口再捲入一場中東衝突。
The Middle East and terrorism: Beyond Iran, the new president will face a series of conflicts, from Syria to Iraq and Afghanistan.
中東和恐怖主義：除了伊朗以外，新總統將會面臨一系列衝突，從敘利亞、伊拉克，到阿富汗。
Mr Trump has consistently advocated a much more ferocious approach to the war on radical Islamic terrorism.
特朗普一再主張在打擊激進伊斯蘭恐怖主義的戰爭中採取猛烈得多的手段。
But his advisers disagree about what that might mean.
但他的顧問們對這一表述的涵義意見分歧。
Some advocate much deeper American military and political involvement in the Middle East.
一些人主張大幅深化美國在中東的軍事和政治介入。
Others argue that such a policy would be counterproductive and are urging a much narrower concentration on counterterrorism.
另一些人則認爲此類政策適得其反，他們敦促縮小關注面，聚焦於反恐。
China: Over the long run, the most important international issue facing the US is how to handle the rise of China.
中國：長期而言，美國面臨的最重要的國際問題是如何應對中國的崛起。
Mr Trump’s early moves have signalled the possibility of a radical change in America’s approach — and a sharp rise in tensions with Beijing.
特朗普的初步動作表明，美國的策略可能發生根本改變，美中關係可能大幅加劇緊張。
Mr Trump has talked of imposing punitive tariffs on Chinese exports.
特朗普談到對中國輸美產品徵收懲罰性關稅。
His phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan reversed decades of US foreign policy — and was a direct affront to Beijing.
他與臺灣總統蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)的通話逆轉了幾十年的美國外交政策，並直接冒犯了北京方面。
Mr Trump has also endorsed significant expansion in the US Navy, which could signal a more aggressive American rejection of Beijing’s ambitions in the South China Sea.
特朗普還贊成顯著擴充美國海軍，這可能表明美國將更加強悍地抵制北京方面在南中國海的雄心。
If there is a broader strategic thrust to Mr Trump’s thinking, it could be to split the informal alliance between Russia and China and instead form a Washington-Moscow axis.
如果說特朗普的戰略思維有什麼整體的戰略方向，那可能是瓦解俄羅斯和中國之間的非正式聯盟，轉而打造一個美俄軸心。
But Mr Trump’s attitude to foreign policy smacks more of chaotic improvisation than strategic thinking.
但是，特朗普對外交政策的態度更像是混亂的即興發揮，而不像是戰略思維。
The biggest questions about his approach may have more to do with process than policy.
關於其策略的最大問題可能在更大程度上關乎過程，而非政策。
In a normal US administration, foreign policy shifts are debated between key departments of government and implemented after talks with allies; in the Trump administration, they are as likely to emerge from a 3am tweet.
在一個正常的美國行政當局，要改變外交政策得首先在關鍵政府部門之間展開辯論，然後在與盟友磋商後實施；在特朗普政府，外交政策的改變可能在凌晨3點的推文中宣佈。
