特朗普外交政策的核心何在

This week the generals persuaded Donald Trump to keep up the fight in Afghanistan. A frustrated US president agreed reluctantly. Time will tell whether his personality and politics can sustain a long-term commitment.

本週，美國的將軍們勸說唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)總統繼續保持在阿富汗的戰鬥。失望的特朗普勉強同意了。時間將證明他的個性和政謀能否支撐一項長期承諾。

Half a year into his presidency, Mr Trump’s foreign policy has five distinctive features. The Trumpian approach differs from that of his predecessors in type, not just degree, and other countries around the world need to be aware of the dissonance with past conduct.

在擔任總統的半年間，特朗普的外交政策呈現出五大顯著特徵。特朗普式外交在類型上（而不只是程度上）與衆多前任截然不同，世界各國都需要認識到這種與過去行爲的不一致性。

First, Mr Trump is transactional, not institutional. He views foreign policy like a dealmaker and does not care whether the outcomes fit America’s traditional practice of building systems that advance its interests and values. As a negotiator, Mr Trump will be periodically confrontational. He can be impulsive. He welcomes creating uncertainty, which he believes builds leverage. Mr Trump’s ego plays an exceptionally large role and so do personal — and even family — relations. He is the first president in my experience who does not believe the office is larger than himself.

首先，特朗普屬於交易型領導人，而非制度型。他像交易撮合者一樣看待外交政策，不關心其政策結果是否符合美國的傳統做法——建立推進美國的利益和價值觀的制度。在談判桌上，特朗普將不時展現對抗性姿態。他容易衝動。他喜歡製造不確定性，並認爲這種不確定性能夠增強其影響力。特朗普的自我意識在其中發揮着極其巨大的作用，還有他的私人（甚至家庭）關係。他是我經歷過的首位不認爲機構大於個人的總統。

Second, Mr Trump’s domestic political interests will dominate his foreign policy. One wise American statesman suggested to me this spring that Mr Trump, like other presidents, wants to be successful, and therefore would move closer to mainstream policies. This assessment depends on how one defines success: I believe Mr Trump’s aim is a political realignment, which he thinks he can achieve by embracing and voicing the grievances of his voters.

第二，特朗普在國內政治中的利益將主導其外交政策。一位充滿智慧的美國政治家今春提示我：特朗普像別的總統一樣希望獲得成功，因而，他將進一步向主流政策靠近。這一判斷取決於如何定義成功：我認爲特朗普的目標是進行政治重組，他認爲這可以通過迎合並表達支持他的選民的不滿來實現這一目標。

Accordingly, he welcomes battles over trade, immigration and his wall with Mexico. Note as well that the president’s directive in the Middle East is to destroy the terrorists of Isis — obvious enemies that his backers can recognise. He has no plans to complement military action by creating forces or safe zones that can establish a rough power balance on the ground and resist Iranian expansion.

因此，他歡迎圍繞貿易、移民的拉鋸戰，執意在美墨邊境建牆。還要注意的是，特朗普中東政策的主要目標是消滅“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)恐怖分子——其支持者能分辨出的公認的敵人。他並未計劃通過幫助地區國家訓練軍隊或設立安全區來補充軍事行動，從而在該地區建立一種大致的權力平衡，並抵制伊朗的擴張。

After being compelled to remain in Afghanistan when he wanted to withdraw, Mr Trump will redefine the battle as smashing terrorism in line with his supporters, even though he really will need to strengthen the Kabul government’s capacity to succeed.

特朗普本希望從阿富汗撤軍，但在被迫留在阿富汗後，他將把這場鬥爭重新定義爲消滅恐怖主義的戰爭，以便與其支持者保持一致，儘管他真正需要做的是加強喀布爾政府成功治理國家的能力。

Third, trade policy will reflect most explicitly Mr Trump’s dissonant outlook. He proudly embraced protectionism in his inaugural address, the first president since Herbert Hoover to make such a public stand. Take Mr Trump at his word. In order to signal a belligerent break with the past, he abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership, whose new rules and market openings would have benefited the US. Mr Trump and Wilbur Ross, commerce secretary, view bilateral trade deficits in the way businesspeople view negative net income: as losing. Therefore, countries that have large bilateral surpluses with the US — such as Mexico, South Korea and Germany — will draw presidential ire.

第三，貿易政策將最明顯地反映出特朗普的另類視界。他曾在就職演說中自豪地擁抱保護主義，成爲繼赫伯特?胡佛(Herbert Hoover)之後首位公開表述此類立場的總統。特朗普也是說到做到。爲了表示與過去徹底決裂，他拋棄了《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP），該協定的新規則和市場開放本能夠讓美國受益。特朗普與商務部長威爾伯?羅斯(Wilbur Ross)用商界人士看待負淨利潤的方式看待雙邊貿易逆差：虧本。因而，對美國存在鉅額雙邊貿易順差的國家（如墨西哥、韓國和德國）都將引發特朗普的憤怒。

Adroit early visits by the leaders of China and Japan led them to hope they could avoid Mr Trump’s aim, but they are mistaken. The president’s problem will be that bilateral trade deficits are hard to modify through trade policies; to address them, the administration will most likely turn from rules for fair competition and openness toward managed outcomes, dictated market shares and requirements for national content. Watch the renegotiation of Nafta to learn how Mr Trump will try to translate political rhetoric into policy.

先前對美國進行的順利訪問，使中國和日本領導人希望能夠避免成爲特朗普的目標，但他們判斷錯了。特朗普面臨的問題是，雙邊貿易逆差很難通過貿易政策來調整；爲解決這些問題，特朗普政府最大的可能是，放棄公平競爭和開放的規則，轉向干預競爭結果、控制市場份額和規定國家成分要求。看看正在重新談判的《北美自由貿易協定》(NAFTA)，就可以瞭解特朗普將怎樣設法把政治辭令轉化爲政策。

Fourth, Mr Trump is ambivalent about alliances. He believes that the US has been too generous and can no longer afford the 70-year old security system that America led in creating after the second world war. But the US alliance network has forged a resiliency through professional ties, planning, institutions and even the careers, customs and habits of the US military.

第四，特朗普對以美國爲首的聯盟持矛盾態度。他認爲美國一直以來過於慷慨，無法再維持其在二戰後牽頭打造的、已有70年曆史的舊安全體系。但美國的聯盟網絡已經通過專業紐帶、規劃、制度，甚至美軍的職業生涯、習俗和習慣形成了生命力。

James Mattis, secretary of defence, embodies that heritage. Therefore, while Trump is not likely to invest much effort in alliance management, he may comply with past practice, albeit with periodic blasts of complaint, as he is doing in Afghanistan.

國防部長詹姆斯?馬蒂斯(James Mattis)體現了這一傳統。因此，雖然特朗普不大可能在聯盟管理方面投入太多精力，但馬蒂斯或將遵循慣例——儘管他也會不時地像在阿富汗那樣發出抱怨。

Finally, Mr Trump’s tenure is underscoring a vital point about America: it is far bigger than the president. Unlike China, Americans chose a constitutional order, not a ‘Core Leader’. US policies are products of shared and separated powers among various institutions and parties: the Senate and House, of course, but also courts, states, cities, federal departments and the private sector, including businesses and civil society.

最後，特朗普的任期凸顯了美國的一個關鍵特點：國家比總統本身大得多。與中國不同，美國人選擇的是憲法秩序，而非“核心領導人”。美國的政策是各種機構和政黨之間共享權力和分權的產物，這些機構既包括參議院、衆議院，也包括法院、州、市、聯邦部門以及包括企業和公民社會在內的私營部門。

Ironically, Mr Trump’s acolytes consider the US founders’ careful construction to be a “deep state”, mistaking the institutions of a healthy republic for some faceless resistance to Trump’s whims. But in foreign policy, some patriots will not support Mr Trump’s pitting of American nationalism against the country’s internationalism. They recognise that most often US nationalism and internationalism have been in synchrony, not conflict, and that the mixture created America’s unique global leadership.

具有諷刺意味的是，特朗普的助手們認爲，美國國父精心打造的制度是一股“暗深勢力”(deep state)，將一個健康的共和國的制度誤認爲是對特朗普種種奇想的無端抵制。但在外交政策方面，一些愛國者不會支持特朗普用美式民族主義對抗美國的國際主義。他們認爲，美國的民族主義與國際主義多數時候都是同步的，並不相沖突，而且正是這種結合創造了美國獨特的全球領導力。