特朗普在落實“美國優先”政策

And then there was one. With the exception of Jim Mattis, the US defence secretary, Donald Trump has now cleared the decks of people who stand up to him. The ousting of Rex Tillerson, whose firing was announced on Twitter, eliminates the gap between Mr Trump’s anti-globalist instincts and the stance of America’s chief diplomat. Mike Pompeo, Mr Tillerson’s replacement, shares the president’s undiplomatic mindset. Mr Pompeo is a Trump enabler. Mr Trump’s America First foreign policy is now closer to becoming a reality.

現在剩下一個了。除了美國國防部長吉姆?馬蒂斯(Jim Mattis)以外，唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)現在已經把敢於同他對抗的一批人都清除了。特朗普在Twitter上宣佈解僱雷克斯?蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)，消除了特朗普反全球主義本能與美國首席外交官立場之間的分歧。蒂勒森的接替者邁克?蓬佩奧(Mike Pompeo)與特朗普一樣毫無外交思維。蓬佩奧唯特朗普馬首是瞻。特朗普的“美國優先”(America First)外交政策現在更接近成爲現實。

The portents for the world are far-reaching. One of Mr Tillerson’s greatest sins was to call Mr Trump a “moron”. His leaked outburst followed a meeting in which the president had said that the US should multiply its nuclear weapons arsenal tenfold. Mr Tillerson’s derogatory response broke two cardinal rules of working for Mr Trump. The first was to show disloyalty, which Mr Trump cannot abide. Questioning his IQ is taboo. The second was to repeatedly clash with him on the big questions. In practice they amount to the same thing.

對全世界來說，它產生的預兆是影響深遠的。蒂勒森最大的罪之一是將特朗普稱爲“白癡”。特朗普在一次會議上表示美國應該將核武器數量增加到現在的10倍，之後便傳出蒂勒森罵特朗普是白癡。蒂勒森的不敬違反了爲特朗普工作的兩項基本原則。首先是表現出了特朗普不能容忍的不忠。質疑他的智商是禁忌。其次是在重大問題上屢次與他發生衝突。實際上，這兩條是一回事。

Gary Cohn, who resigned last week as Mr Trump’s economic adviser, also broke both rules. Last summer he told the Financial Times that he disapproved of Mr Trump’s even-handedness on the alt-right’s clash with protesters in Charlottesville. He also argued against Mr Trump’s protectionist instincts — as did Mr Tillerson. HR McMaster, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, is no longer seen as a brake on Mr Trump — and his days are widely rumoured to be numbered.

上週辭去總統首席經濟顧問職務的加里?科恩(Gary Cohn)也違背了這兩個原則。去年夏天，他告訴英國《金融時報》，他不贊成特朗普在夏洛茨維爾另類右翼與抗議者的衝突中對雙方各打五十大板的做法。他還反對特朗普的保護主義本能——蒂勒森也是一樣。特朗普的國家安全顧問赫伯特?雷蒙德?麥克馬斯特(HR McMaster)不再被視爲對特朗普的制約力量——人們普遍傳言，他在白宮剩下的日子屈指可數。

In Mr Trump’s world, disloyalty and disagreement eventually blur into one. In Mr Pompeo, Mr Trump has a true loyalist. Whatever Mr Trump wants, he will prosecute. Mr Pompeo has often crossed that line as director of the Central Intelligence Agency — a role that is meant to channel neutral advice rather than policy cheerleading. For all his failings, which were manifold, Mr Tillerson did not mute his disagreements with Mr Trump.

在特朗普的世界裏，不忠和分歧最終混爲一談。在蓬佩奧這裏，特朗普得到一個真正的忠誠者。無論特朗普想要什麼，他都會執行。蓬佩奧經常越過中央情報局(CIA)局長的角色——這個角色本應是溝通中立建議而不是爲政策搖旗吶喊。儘管蒂勒森的失敗是多方面的，但他並沒有諱言他與特朗普的分歧。

Chief among these were Mr Trump’s impulses on Russia, Iran and US engagement with the Muslim world. It is no coincidence that Mr Tillerson’s last comment before being fired was to echo the view of the British prime minister, Theresa May, that it was “highly likely” Russia had poisoned a former spy on British soil. (Mr Trump took 24 hours to respond to Mrs May). Whether Mr Tillerson knew he was about to be fired when he said that is beside the point.

其中最主要的分歧是關於特朗普在俄羅斯、伊朗以及美國如何與穆斯林世界打交道問題上的衝動。並非偶然的是，蒂勒森在被解僱前發表的最後一條評論，是呼應英國首相特里薩?梅(Theresa May)認爲俄羅斯“極有可能”在英國領土上毒殺了一名前間諜的觀點。（特朗普花了24小時迴應梅）。蒂勒森在說這話的時候是否知道他即將被解僱並不重要。

Mr Trump, who is loath to criticise Vladimir Putin, said he and Mr Tillerson “disagreed on many things”. By contrast, he and Mr Pompeo “have a very similar thought process — I think it is going to go very well”. It is worth stressing that Mrs May implied that Russia had attacked the UK, which could trigger Nato’s article five on collective defence. Mr Tillerson did his best to persuade Mr Trump to support Nato in public. He was not always successful. It is an open question whether Mr Pompeo will even try.

不願指責弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)的特朗普表示，他和蒂勒森“在很多事情上意見不同”。相反，他和蓬佩奧“擁有非常相似的思考過程——我認爲相處會非常順利”。需要強調的是，梅暗示俄羅斯攻擊英國，這可能觸發北約(Nato)關於集體防禦的第五條款。蒂勒森竭盡全力說服了特朗普在公開場合支持北約。他並非總能成功說服特朗普。蓬佩奧是否會嘗試這麼做都很難說。

Second, Mr Pompeo is a visceral critic of the Iran nuclear deal, which he says should be scrapped. He is of one mind with Mr Trump on this. Mr Tillerson and Mr Mattis have argued that torpedoing the deal would be disastrous. It could lead to Iran’s rapid nuclearisation and war with Saudi Arabia. It would also deepen America’s split with its European allies. The chances that Mr Trump will pull the plug on the deal when it comes up for certification in a few weeks have risen sharply.

第二，蓬佩奧打心眼裏反對伊朗核協議，他稱應該撕毀該協議。在該問題上，他和特朗普是一條心。蒂勒森和馬蒂斯認爲，毀掉該協議將帶來災難性後果。可能導致伊朗迅速實現核武器化，並且與沙特阿拉伯開戰。這還會加深美國與其歐洲盟友之間的分歧。未來幾周到了特朗普認證的時候，他退出該協議的可能性大幅增加。

The potential impact on Mr Trump’s planned summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is great. North Korea experts dismiss the chances that Mr Trump could persuade “rocket man” to denuclearise the Korean peninsula — Mr Trump’s explicit aim. If the US pulled out of the Iran deal, Mr Kim would have even less incentive to strike a bargain with Mr Trump. The dangers of a belligerent fallout from a failed Kim Jong Un summit are acute. As CIA chief, Mr Pompeo has spoken publicly about removing Mr Kim.

特朗普計劃與朝鮮的金正恩(Kim Jong Un)舉行峯會可能帶來巨大影響。朝鮮問題專家對特朗普說服這位“狂人”實現朝鮮半島無核化（特朗普的明確目標）的可能性不屑一顧。如果美國退出伊朗核協議，金正恩就更沒有動力與特朗普達成交易了。美朝峯會失敗極可能帶來交戰後果。在擔任中央情報局局長時，蓬佩奧曾公開說起過除掉金正恩。

Finally, there is the Muslim world. Mr Pompeo’s view is in line with the clash of civilisations argument made by Stephen Bannon, Mr Trump’s former chief strategist. The two are friends. Mr Pompeo has frequently spoken the language of holy war between radical Islam and a Christian west. By contrast, Mr Tillerson stuck to the traditional script about Islamist bad actors perverting a noble religion. Where this will lead is ominous for US relations in the Middle East and beyond.

最後，還有穆斯林世界。蓬佩奧的觀點與特朗普前首席戰略顧問史蒂夫?班農(Stephen Bannon)關於文明衝突的觀點一致。他們二人是朋友。蓬佩奧經常說起聖戰語言，稱激進的伊斯蘭教徒與遵循基督教義的西方之間有一場聖戰。相比之下，蒂勒森堅持傳統說法——伊斯蘭教徒中的害羣之馬扭曲了崇高的伊斯蘭教。蓬佩奧接替蒂勒森出任美國國務卿，給美國在中東乃至整個穆斯林世界的關係帶來了不祥的徵兆。

On Tuesday, Mr Trump said he was now “closer to having the cabinet I want”. Two men stand between Mr Trump and an unfettered presidency. The first is Mr Mattis. His role now assumes even greater importance. The second is Robert Mueller, the special counsel. Their job security is now indistinguishable from US national security.

週二，特朗普稱眼下“接近於組成我想要的內閣”。現在還有兩個人阻礙特朗普得到不受約束的總統權力。第一個是馬蒂斯。如今他的角色甚至顯得更加重要。第二個是特別檢察官羅伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)。眼下，他們能否保住自己的職位，直接關係到美國的國家安全。