別對特朗普上臺後的政策太樂觀

An ironic contradiction is likely to define the global economic community’s convocation in Davos this week as it awaits Donald Trump’s inauguration. There has not been so much anxiety about US global leadership or about the sustainability of market-oriented democracy at any time in the past half-century. Yet with markets not only failing to swoon as predicted but rallying strongly after both the Brexit vote and after Mr Trump’s victory, the animal spirits of business are running hot.

在等待唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)就職典禮之際，一個頗具諷刺意味的矛盾很可能將定義本週在達沃斯召開的全球經濟共同體大會。對於美國全球領導力或市場導向民主制度的可持續性，過去半個世紀都未曾出現過如此多的焦慮感。然而，在英國公投退歐以及特朗普勝選之後，全球金融市場非但未像預測那樣暴跌，反而出現了強勁反彈，企業的“動物精神”正在猛烈燃燒。

Many chief executives are coming to believe that — what ever the president-elect’s weaknesses — the pro-business attitude of his administration, combined with Republican control of Congress, will lead to a new era of support for business, along with much lower taxes and regulatory burdens. This in turn, it is argued, will drive a big rise in investment and hiring, setting off a virtuous circle of economic growth and rising confidence.

許多首席執行官開始相信——無論這位當選總統有多少缺點——新政府的“親企業”態度，加上共和黨對國會的控制，將帶來一個支持企業的新時代，同時還有稅負和監管負擔的大幅降低。有人認爲，這將繼而推動投資和就業崗位大幅增加，開啓一個經濟增長和信心提升的良性循環。

While it has to be admitted that such a scenario looks more plausible now than it did on election day, I believe that it is very much odds-off. More likely, the current run of happy markets and favourable sentiment will be seen, with the benefit of hindsight, as a sugar high. John Maynard Keynes was right to emphasise the great importance of animal spirits, but economists have also been right to emphasise that it is political and economic fundamentals that dominate in the medium and long term. History is replete with examples of populist authoritarian policies that produced short-run benefits but very poor long-run outcomes.

雖然必須承認，比起大選日那天，這一前景如今看起來似乎更可信，但我認爲可能性非常小。更有可能的是，如果有後見之明的話，當前的牛市和有利情緒將被視爲一種“食糖後興奮”(sugar high)。約翰?梅納德?凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)對動物精神重要性的強調是正確的，但經濟學家們強調從中長期來看起主導作用的是政治和經濟基本面也沒有錯。歷史上關於民粹主義獨裁政策產生短期好處、但帶來極糟長期後果的例子不勝枚舉。

The new US president will be operating on a very weak political foundation, is very unlikely to be able to deliver the results he has promised to key constituencies, and seems likely to take dangerous gambles in the international arena. This makes it probable that a cycle of growing disillusion, disappointment and disapproval will set in within a year.

特朗普執政的政治基礎非常薄弱，他不太可能有能力兌現其對關鍵選民羣體許下的承諾，且很可能在國際舞臺上採取冒險行動。因此很可能在一年之內出現一個幻滅、失望和不滿不斷高漲的循環。

Mr Trump will be the first new president in US history with more measured public disapproval than approval. No outsider can know the validity of allegations regarding his campaign’s involvement with Russia, but the shadow of possible scandal is far more present in the pre-inaugural press than it was even before Richard Nixon’s second term in the White House. And the continued operation of the president-elect’s business interests by his family offers potential for at least the allegation of serious misconduct.

特朗普將成爲美國曆史上首個遭遇公衆反對多於贊同的新總統。局外人不可能知曉有關特朗普競選活動與俄羅斯有牽連的指控的真實性，但新聞媒體在他就職前爆出醜聞的可能性，甚至比理查德?尼克松(Richard Nixon)白宮第二任期之前更大。特朗普家族繼續運營特朗普的商業帝國，至少使其將來遭遇嚴重瀆職指控成爲可能。

Nor is Mr Trump likely to be able to keep his promises to key middle-class constituencies. The consequence of the very weak Mexican peso, which is one of the results of his rhetoric is more Mexican immigration to the US and more businesses choosing Mexico over Ohio as a location for production.

特朗普也不大可能有能力兌現其對重要的中產階層選民的承諾。他的言論導致的後果之一是墨西哥比索暴跌，而後者造成的後果是更多墨西哥人移民到美國、以及更多企業選擇在墨西哥而非俄亥俄州建廠。

Moreover, it is not possible to repeal Obamacare without taking health insurance away from millions of Americans and placing new burdens on those with pre-existing conditions. If Mr Trump goes through with proposed increases in tariffs the result will be lower real wages and incomes as prices rise faster than pay. All in Congress agree that tax reform will not happen in a few months and it is impossible to reconcile the president-elect’s stated goals of big reductions in corporate and top rates, a fair distribution of the benefits of tax cuts and preventing a huge increase in federal debt.

此外，若廢除奧巴馬醫改(Obamacare)，數百萬美國人將失去醫療保險，還會給那些已有疾病的人增加新的負擔。如果特朗普堅持實施其提出的提高關稅政策，結果將導致實際工資和收入下降，因爲物價上漲速度比工資增速更快。國會議員普遍認爲，稅收改革不會在幾個月後實施，特朗普既定的幾個目標——大幅削減企業稅率和最高稅率，公平分配減稅帶來的好處，防止聯邦債務大幅增加——不可能同時實現。

Finally, Mr Trump will be taking some big risks. Seeking to use the One China policy as a lever for extracting trade concessions from Beijing risks serious confrontation and will complicate co-operation on critical issues such as North Korean nuclear proliferation.

最後，特朗普將冒一些很大的風險。試圖利用“一箇中國”政策爲籌碼換取北京在貿易方面讓步，可能引發嚴重的對抗，而且將使在防止朝鮮核擴散等關鍵問題上的合作複雜化。

Questioning the value of the EU and Nato risks undermining our principal democratic allies at a time when they are already politically fragile. Unilateral imposition of tariffs or enactment of a tax system that subsidises exports and penalises imports risks both retaliatory protectionism and a spiking dollar, with potentially grave consequences for the global economy .

質疑歐盟(EU)和北約(Nato)的價值有可能在這些組織已然遭遇政治脆弱之際破壞我們最重要的民主盟友。單方面施加關稅或實施補貼出口、懲罰進口的稅收制度，有可能既招致報復性的貿易保護主義，又引發美元急劇升值，或將給全球經濟帶來嚴重後果。

And threatening businesses, as happened with the attack on the pharmaceutical industry during Mr Trump’s last press conference, risks significant increases in uncertainty and even questions about the rule of law.

威脅企業——如特朗普在上次新聞發佈會期間對製藥業的抨擊——可能導致不確定性大幅增加，甚至引發對法治的懷疑。

Animal spirits are as fickle as they are important. Right now they certainly are an impetus to economic growth. The speed with which they changed after the Brexit vote and after the US election should be cautionary. They can easily change again. If ever there was a time to hope for the best but plan for the worst it is now.

動物精神很重要，但也變化無常。眼下，它們無疑是經濟增長的推動力。它們在英國退歐和美國大選之後的變化速度應該引起我們警惕。它們很容易會再次變化。如果說什麼時候應該抱最好的希望但做最壞的打算的話，那就是現在。

The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary

本文作者爲哈佛大學(Harvard)查爾斯?W?艾略特大學教授(Charles W. Eliot University Professor)，曾任美國財政部長