誰說特朗普不可能當選美國總統
It is February 2016 and the sky is falling on our heads. Donald Trump has just won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Those who predicted he would have long since imploded are scrambling to fallback positions. He will flame out on Super Tuesday, they insist. He will be ejected by primary voters in Jeb Bush’s Florida in March, they add.
現在是2016年2月，我們頭頂的天好像快塌下來了。唐納德礠朗普(Donald Trump)剛剛在愛荷華州的黨團會議上獲勝，並且贏得了新罕布什爾州的初選。那些早就預言他會失敗的人正爭先恐後地找尋退路。他們堅稱，他會在“超級星期二”熄火。他們又補充，3月份他會在傑布布什(Jeb Bush)的佛羅里達州被初選選民拋出局。
If worst comes to worst, he will meet his Waterloo at the Republican convention in July — the first such brokered event in decades. Fear not, wise heads will reassure us, that man could never be president of the United States.
如果最糟糕的事態發生，特朗普將在7月份的共和黨全國代表大會上遭遇滑鐵盧——這是數十年以來首次通過黨內協商提名候選人。有智之士將向我們保證，別害怕，這個人永遠不會成爲美利堅合衆國的總統。
Like a stopped clock, conventional wisdom must eventually be right on Mr Trump. It goes without saying that sane people should hope so. Last week two of the billionaire’s More inflamed supporters beat up a homeless Hispanic man. All Mr Trump could initially say was that his followers were “passionate”. Make no mistake, the property tycoon who would be president is an unpleasant piece of work.
就像不走的鐘一天也能對上兩次，對於特朗普的一般看法最終必然是正確的。不必說，理智的人都應該希望如此。上週，這位億萬富翁的兩名情緒較爲激昂的支持者毆打一名無家可歸的拉丁裔男子。特朗普最初的表態不過是他的追隨者很“富於激情”。毫無疑問，這名可能當上總統的地產大亨是個令人不愉快的傢伙。
Conservatives should be especially worried. His plans to round up and deport the estimated 11.5m undocumented immigrants would require the federal power of a police state. His plan to scrap the 14th amendment’s birthright to US citizenship would corrode America’s soul.
保守派大概尤爲憂慮。特朗普逮捕並驅逐據估計1150萬非法移民的計劃需要一個警察國家的聯邦權力。他取消憲法第14條修正案出生公民權的計劃將會腐蝕美國的靈魂。
Yet he must be taken seriously. At first the view was that Mr Trump was merely the flavour of the month. People compared his sudden ascent to the 2012 Republican contest when a different outlier appeared to surge into the lead with each news cycle. One minute it was Michele Bachmann, the hardline Christian conservative from Minnesota. Next it was Herman Cain, the former pizza king with his zany “999” tax plan. Then it was Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker. And so on. But it turned out all right in the end, as it always does. The establishment prevailed and Mitt Romney took the nomination.
然而，對特朗普不應等閒視之。一開始，人們認爲他不過是一時走紅。人們將他的突然崛起和2012年大選共和黨黨內的角逐相比，當時每一輪新聞週期都會出現一個不同的異數突然佔據領先位置。這一刻還是米歇爾巴赫曼(Michele Bachmann)，來自明尼蘇達州的基督教強硬派保守主義者。下一刻就變成了赫爾曼凱恩(Herman Cain)，提出古怪的“999”稅收計劃的前披薩大王。再下一刻是前衆議院議長紐特金裏奇(Newt Gingrich)，等等。但一如既往，最後結果還不錯。共和黨內的當權派勝出，米特圠姆尼(Mitt Romney)得到了總統侯選人提名。
Why should this time be any different? Because it already is. Mr Trump has now consistently topped the polls for several weeks. When people are restless for a new flavour, they do not linger for so long on one. Nor can Trumpmania be attributed to people not paying attention. Quite the opposite: they are gripped.
這一次爲什麼不同？因爲已經有所不同了。特朗普已經連續數週在民意調查中佔據榜首。當人們焦躁地尋求一種新口味的時候，他們不會在一種口味上流連這麼久。“特朗普熱”也不能歸結於人們沒有關注。恰恰相反：他們被吸引住了。
The Republican debate this month had 24m viewers — the highest ratings for a non-sporting event in US cable television history. It was also Fox News’s most watched programme ever. It took in almost four times as many viewers as the previous record for a Republican primary debate (6.7m in late 2011). Doubtless many were tuning in with blood sport, rather than politics, in mind. Yet Mr Trump’s lead has solidified since then.
本月共和黨的電視辯論有2400萬觀衆——這是美國有線電視有史以來非體育節目獲得的最高收視率。這還是有史以來福克斯新聞(Fox News)觀看人數最多的節目。該節目吸引的觀衆是上一次共和黨初選辯論收視人數創紀錄時（2011年末的670萬）的近4倍。無疑，許多人收看這一節目是爲了看政客間打個“頭破血流”，而不是政治。然而，特朗普的領先地位在這之後穩固下來。
Political veterans say some event will occur to bring Mr Trump’s meteor down to earth. It will have to be something special. Every time he makes a gaffe his numbers seem to improve. Whether he is making derogatory remarks about fellow Republicans, Hispanics, popular female television anchors, or women in general, that bird has flown. In spite of his three marriages and a tendency to talk about women as sex objects, he polls well with Christian conservatives. Mr Trump’s popularity is based in part on his willing obnoxiousness. His brand subverts all laws of campaign propriety. It is hard to think of what he could say, or do, that would undermine that.
一些資深政治人士表示，將會發生一些事件，讓特朗普這顆一飛沖天的流星跌落到地面。這必須是一些特別的事件。每次他失言，他的支持率似乎都在上升。不管他詆譭的是共和黨同僚、拉丁裔、當紅電視女主持人，還是女性這個整體，他都逃脫了罪責。儘管他有三次婚姻，還有把女性說成性玩物的傾向，他在基督教保守主義人士中的民調結果很好。他的人氣部分基於他恣意地招人厭惡。他的招牌顛覆了所有競選禮儀準則。很難想象他的何種言論或者舉動會削弱他的人氣。
All of which is confusing. Washington pundits are a bit like those dazed cops in Basic Instinct watching Sharon Stone light up a cigarette. What are we going to do? Arrest him?
一切都令人疑惑。華盛頓的專家們有點像是電影《本能》(Basic Instinct)中茫然地看着莎朗斯通(Sharon Stone)點燃一支香菸的警察。我們要幹什麼？逮捕他嗎？
That brings us to the final line of defence — the brokered convention. With 17 candidates competing and none, other than Mr Trump, having yet sustained a lead, the chances were already tilting towards one.
這讓我們退到了最後一道防線——黨內協調的共和黨代表大會。有17名候選人蔘與角逐，除了特朗普以外，還沒有一個人長時間保持領先，機會已經向一個人傾斜。
Even without Mr Trump, this is the most fractured and fractious Republican field in modern times. Let us suppose Mr Trump wins a quarter of the delegates in the primaries and the remaining three-quarters are distributed between Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio — and perhaps Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
即使沒有特朗普，這也是現代最支離破碎，最難以駕馭的共和黨角逐場了。我們假設特朗普在初選中贏得了四分之一的代表的支持，剩下四分之三則分佈在傑布布什、斯科特茠克(Scott Walker)、馬可脠比奧(Marco Rubio)——或許還有特德克魯茲(Ted Cruz)和約翰慍罓奇(John Kasich)身上。
Add them all up and Mr Trump could easily be ejected. But that supposes the rest have coalesced around one standard bearer. It is easy to imagine Mr Rubio awarding his delegates to Mr Bush, or vice versa. But what about Mr Cruz, the Tea Party-backed senator from Texas? The establishment can only prevail if it agrees.
把他們加在一起，可以輕而易舉地讓特朗普出局。但這預先假設了其他人會以一個旗手爲核心聯合起來。不難想象馬可脠比奧將支持自己的代表轉給傑布布什，反過來也有可能。但獲得茶黨支持的得克薩斯州參議員特德克魯茲呢？共和黨的當權派只有達成一致才能成功。
Let us suppose it does and Mr Bush emerges from a bitter few days of horse-trading as the Republican nominee. What will Mr Trump do then? Admit that the game is up after a fair fight? Or enter the field as a third-party candidate? My money would be on the latter.
假設他們的確達成一致，傑布布什經過數日艱苦的討價還價脫穎而出，獲得了共和黨總統候選人提名。特朗普會做些什麼？承認在一場公平的較量之後遊戲結束了？還是以第三黨候選人的身份參選？我賭會發生後一種情況。
There would be all sorts of technical difficulties in putting his name on the ballot at that late stage. But cash goes a long way and Mr Trump has plenty.
要讓他的名字出現在最後階段的投票箱上，存在各種各樣的技術困難。但金錢對此大有幫助，而特朗普有很多錢。
More to the point, he has ego. People debate Mr Trump’s ideology. Some say he is nativist. Others say he is a moderate conservative with a nasty streak. The truth is he is making it up as he goes along. Mr Trump has always been about Mr Trump. If he made it to a brokered convention he would not stop there.
更重要的是，他很自負。人們就特朗普的意識形態展開辯論。一些人說他是本土主義者。還有人說他是個有點討厭的溫和派保守主義者。真相是，他只管走自己的路。特朗普從來都是以特朗普爲中心。如果他真的成功走到黨內協調代表大會的階段，他不會就此止步。
As regards predictions, I will risk one more. Mr Trump will never be president of the US. Indeed, he is already halfway to ensuring that none of his Republican rivals will get there either.
至於預測，我要冒險再做一次。特朗普永遠不會成爲美國總統。事實上，在確保他的共和黨內競爭對手一個也當不了總統方面，他已經成功了一半。
