新興市場匯率戰可能重創全球貿易

Weakness in emerging market currencies is hurting globAl trade by reducing imports without any benefit to export volumes, according to Financial Times research on More than 100 countries.

英國《金融時報》對逾100個國家的研究發現，新興市場貨幣疲弱正在傷害全球貿易，因爲這削減了進口，卻沒有促進出口。

The findings suggest that any currency war between developing nations is likely to be even more damaging than previously thought, leading to a reduction in global trade and possibly economic growth, rather than just reapportioning a fixed level of trade between “winners” and “losers”.

該研究似乎說明，發展中國家之間匯率戰的破壞性甚至可能超過此前預期，導致全球貿易規模（可能還有經濟增長）下降，而不只是在“贏家”和“輸家”之間重新分配固定水平的貿易。

The analysis coincides with concerns that some countries are engaging in competitive devaluations in order to undercut their neighbours and steal market share.

這項分析完成之際，有人擔憂一些國家爲了奪取鄰國的市場份額而進行競爭性貶值。

“We risk slipping into a beggar thy neighbour, competitive spiral of currency overshoots and volatility that go with that,” said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz and chairman of US president Barack Obama’s Global Development Council.

安聯集團(Allianz)首席經濟顧問、美國總統巴拉克攠巴馬(Barack Obama)的全球發展委員會(Global Development Council)主席穆罕默德埃爾-埃裏安(Mohamed El-Erian)表示：“我們有可能陷入一場‘以鄰爲壑’、競爭性的貨幣貶值潮，引發匯率劇烈震盪和波動。”

Since June 2014, the currencies of Russia, Colombia, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico and Chile have fallen between 20 per cent and 50 per cent against the dollar, while the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah are at their weakest since the Asian financial crisis of 1998.

自2014年6月以來，俄羅斯、哥倫比亞、巴西、土耳其、墨西哥和智利的貨幣兌美元匯率下跌了20%至50%，同時馬來西亞林吉特和印尼盾處於1998年亞洲金融危機以來的最低水平。