強勢美元 特朗普和耶倫的相同難題
Where there was discord, Donald Trump has remarkably brought harmony.
哪裏有不和諧之處，唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)便引人注目地帶來了和諧。
He has brought peace between the markets and Janet Yellen, as traders at last appear to believe her forecast for interest rates over the next year.
他讓市場和珍妮特.耶倫(Janet Yellen)之間實現了和平，交易員們最終似乎相信了她對明年利率動作的預測。
The Federal Reserve says it intends to raise rates three times next year, and the market implicitly, through Fed Funds futures, puts the chance of this happening at almost exactly 50 per cent.
美聯儲(Fed)表示其明年將加息三次，而市場通過聯邦基金利率期貨暗示，其發生機率幾乎正好是50%。
This follows five years of the Fed’s current attempt at transparency in which markets have persistently and successfully bet that rates will stay stuck near zero, whatever Ms Yellen may tell them.
此前5年裏，美聯儲一直試圖增加透明度，而市場一直、而且正確地押注利率將維持在接近零的水平，無論耶倫可能怎麼表態。
It is the sharp change in psychology that came with Mr Trump’s election victory that has at last brought the rate markets and the central bank in tune with each other.
特朗普在選舉中獲勝帶來的心理鉅變，最終導致利率市場和美聯儲達成了一致。
The problem is that the newfound belief in a hawkish Fed scares the bond and foreign exchange markets rigid.
問題在於，這種新萌發的對於美聯儲保持鷹派立場的信心，嚇壞了債市和匯市。
Ms Yellen perhaps inadvertently fed this in her press conference by commenting that fiscal policy was not really needed now — a very direct contradiction to the stance of the new administration.
在新聞發佈會上，耶倫也許在無意中助長了這一情緒，她評論道，目前並不真的需要財政政策——這與新政府的立場直接牴觸。
The strong language she used about the strength of the US economy and labour market also gave the impression that she was prepared to be even more hawkish in future.
她使用強烈措辭表述美國經濟和勞動力市場的強勁程度，也給人留下了她準備在未來表現得更加鷹派的印象。
The reaction to Ms Yellen’s press conference was almost certainly exaggerated and greater than she wanted, and some attempt by the Fed to talk traders back from the precipice over the next few days is likely.
耶倫新聞發佈會引起的反應幾乎肯定比她希望的更誇張、更巨大，未來幾天裏，美聯儲很可能嘗試通過調整表態把交易員從懸崖邊上拉回來。
But the market reaction does indicate that the fixed income market is indeed prone to an overdramatic sell-off.
但市場反應的確預示着，固定收益市場真的可能遭遇過分戲劇化的拋售。
Fears of this were not overdone, and this is unwelcome news.
對此局面的擔心並不過分，而這不是個好消息。
For the time being, Ms Yellen’s undiplomatic efforts will render her unpopular with Mr Trump.
就目前而言，耶倫的不圓滑做法將令她不受特朗普待見。
The consolation may be that they now find themselves facing the same serious and urgent problem; dollar strength.
或許讓她感到安慰的是，他們兩人如今面臨同一個嚴峻、緊迫的問題：強勢美元。
By the end of Wednesday’s hectic trading, the dollar had hit its highest on a trade-weighted basis since early 2003, before the invasion of Iraq.
到週三繁忙的交易結束時，美元貿易加權匯率衝上自2003年初——即入侵伊拉克之前——以來的最高點。
The economic and financial logic is ineffable.
其中的經濟與金融邏輯是難以形容的。
If the US is genuinely going to reflate, then interest rates will need to rise.
如果美國真的打算再通脹，那麼利息將需要調高。
That will attract funds to the dollar, particularly from economies like Japan and Germany where rates are still on the floor.
那將吸引資金、尤其是來自日本和德國等利率仍非常低的經濟體的資金買入美元。
Yield differentials are now extreme.
目前，利率差已達到極端水平。
The spread of 10-year Treasury yields over equivalent German Bunds is now its widest since the spring of 1989, before German reunification.
美國10年期國債收益率與德國10年期國債的差距如今達到自1989年春天——當時德國尚未統一——以來的最大水平。
This should be helpful for Japan and Germany, export-oriented economies.
對於出口導向經濟體日本和德國而言，這應是有益的。
It is extremely unhelpful for China, still tied to the dollar, and for many emerging markets, where dollar strength — as shown during 2013’s taper tantrum — can easily translate into crisis conditions.
但對於仍與美元掛鉤的中國以及許多新興經濟體，這是極其無益的；正如2013年的縮減恐慌(taper tantrum)所顯示的那樣，強勢美元在這些經濟體可能很容易引發危機。
It is unhelpful for Ms Yellen, as a strong dollar tamps down inflation, through its effect on import prices, as well as growth.
這對耶倫是無益的，因爲強勢美元會通過其對進口價格的影響而抑制通脹，並削弱增長。
It is also deeply unhelpful to Mr Trump.
這對特朗普也是極其無益的。
His signature aim is to restore US manufacturing and to defend the country’s trade position.
他的標誌性目標是恢復美國製造業元氣，並捍衛美國的貿易地位。
A dollar this strong has much the same effect as an array of protective tariffs against US goods.
如此強勢的美元，在很大程度上跟對美國產品徵收大量保護性關稅具有相同的效果。
Further, the Fed’s intended rate trajectory is based on GDP growth that will barely exceed 2 per cent over the next four years.
此外，美聯儲希望實現的利率軌跡的假設是，未來4年國內生產總值(GDP)增長勉強超過2%。
Mr Trump’s clear commitment is to try to get growth up to 3.5 per cent.
特朗普的明確承諾是努力使GDP增速達到3.5%。
Fiscal policy generous enough to propel growth that strong would likely entail higher rates, and an even stronger dollar.
如果財政政策足夠慷慨、能把增長率推高至那種水平，那將意味着更高的利率，以及更強勢的美元。
The alternative would be an irresponsible Fed that was prepared to run the risk of allowing inflation to take off once more.
替代選擇將是美聯儲不負責任，準備承擔讓通脹再度飆升的風險。
Ultimately, the quandary for Mr Trump and Ms Yellen is identical and uncomfortable.
歸根結底，特朗普和耶倫的困境是相同的、令人不安的。
There are limits to how much globalisation can be peeled back.
全球化的倒退程度是存在極限的。
Financial markets in a global setting put limits on how far the US can restimulate its own economy.
全球背景的金融市場，爲美國能在何種程度上重新刺激本國經濟設定了極限。
