中國10月貿易數據大幅下降 貿易順差創紀錄

BEIJING — China’s trade figures missed expectations by a wide margin in October, data showed Sunday, reinforcing views that the Chinese economy will have to do more to stimulate domestic demand.

北京——週日公佈的數據顯示，中國10月的貿易數據遠低於預期。這加強了中國經濟將不得不採取更多措施刺激內需的觀點。

Although Beijing has repeatedly cut interest rates, the latest data, which show another monthly drop in net trade, indicate persistent weakness in demand at home and abroad.

儘管北京已多次降息，但最新數據顯示，上月的淨貿易額再次下跌。這表明國內外的需求持續疲軟。

October exports fell 6.9 percent, compared with last year, down for a fourth month, while imports slipped 18.8 percent, leaving the country with a record high trade surplus of $61.64 billion, the General Administration of Customs said Sunday.

中國海關總署週日表示，10月出口同比下降6.9%，連續第四個月下滑，同時進口下降18.8%，導致中國貿易順差達到了創紀錄的616.4億美元。

Economists had expected dollar- denominated exports to fall 3 percent and imports to decline 16 percent, an improvement over September’s drop of 3.7 percent for exports and 20.4 percent for imports.

經濟學家原本預期，以美元計價的出口額和進口額分別會下降3%和16%，與9月3.7%和20.4%的收縮幅度相比會有所改善。

But the weak export numbers show that China might be getting less of a lift than hoped from overseas holiday shopping, while falling commodity import volumes highlight stubborn weakness in demand from important sectors like real estate and construction that Beijing has been trying to revive.

但疲軟的出口數據表明，海外節日採購對中國的提振不及預期，而不斷下滑的大宗商品進口量則突顯出，房地產和建築等重要領域的需求疲軟依舊。北京一直試圖重振這些領域。

China’s services sector, which has been one of the few bright spots in the economy, also lost steam in October.

服務業一直是中國經濟爲數不多的亮點之一。但10月，服務業也失去了動力。

“We see that the trade will unlikely turn around the momentum in the near term, and the RMB exchange rate will be under downward pressure, especially as Fed signals to hike soon,” said Zhou Hao, a China economist with the Paris-based Commerzbank, referring to China’s currency, the renminbi and to the possibility that the United States Federal Reserve Bank may increase interest rates.

“我們認爲，貿易勢頭近期不太會扭轉，人民幣匯率將面臨下行壓力，特別是由於美聯儲發出信號，表示很快將會加息，”德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)中國經濟專家周浩說。

The decline in October exports was led by trade with developed economies, according to customs data.

從海關數據來看，與發達經濟體的貿易引領了10月的出口下降。

Shipments to the United States dipped 0.9 percent from the previous year. Exports to the European Union dropped 2.9 percent and exports to Japan fell 7.7 percent.

發往美國的出貨量同比減少0.9%。面向歐盟和日本的出口分別下降了2.9%和7.7%。

Combined exports and imports are down 8.5 percent for the first 10 months of the year, well below the full-year official target for growth of 6 percent.

今年前十個月的進出口總額下滑8.5%，遠低於全年增長6%的官方目標。

Last week, the Ministry of Commerce said the value of China’s exports this year was likely to remain similar to 2014 levels, while imports could drop sharply in the fourth quarter.

上週，商務部表示，今年的出口額可能會與2014年持平，而四季度進口額則可能會大幅下降。

For 2016, the ministry expects to see steady growth in combined exports and imports as policy measures to support the trade sector take effect.

商務部預計，隨着支持貿易領域的政策生效，2016年進出口總額會穩步增長。

To lower social financial costs for companies, the central bank cut interest rates in late October for the sixth time in less than a year and again reduced the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves. It has also guided the renminbi into weaker territory against the dollar, but few believe Chinese exporters would benefit from anything short of a drastic devaluation.

爲降低企業的社會融資成本，中國央行10月末再次降息並降低存款準備金率。這是中國在不到一年的時間裏第六次降息。央行還引導人民幣對美元貶值，但幾乎沒有人認爲中國的出口商會從中受益，除非人民幣急劇貶值。