特朗普:強勢美元“要我們的命”

Donald Trump has threatened to overturn two decades of US economic policy by questioning the strong value of the dollar, raising fears that his presidency could set off a new round of currency wars between the big economies.

唐納德`特朗普(Donald Trump)威脅要推翻持續已20年的美國經濟政策，他對強勢美元提出質疑，令人擔心身爲總統的他可能引發大型經濟體之間新一輪的貨幣戰爭。

On Monday the president-elect appea-r-ed to break from the longstanding “strong dollar” policy of former administrations, declaring that the currency was too high and that this was preventing US companies from competing with their Chinese counterparts. “It’s killing us,” he said told the Wall Street Journal.

週一，當選總統似乎背離前幾屆政府長期實行的強勢美元政策，宣告美元匯率過高，阻礙了美國企業與中國同行開展競爭。“這一點正在要我們的命，”他對《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)表示。

Speaking in Switzerland after Mr Trump’s comments, Anthony Scaramucci, a leading figure in Mr Trump’s transition team, said the administration would need to take heed of the problems of a buoyant currency.

在特朗普發表上述言論後，其過渡團隊的主要人物之一安東尼?斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)在瑞士發表講話時表示，特朗普政府將需要注意匯率堅挺的問題。

“In the Trump administration, there will be a lot of symbolism in terms of reaching out for lower class families and middle class families,” he said, adding that in doing so “we have to be careful about the rising currency, because not just what is going on internationally, but it’ll have an impact internally in the US”.

“在特朗普政府主政期間，在接觸低階層家庭和中產階級家庭方面會有很多象徵性的動作，”他表示。他補充說，在這麼做的時候，“我們得小心匯率不斷上升，不僅是因爲國際間的情況，還因爲它將在美國國內產生的影響”。

But he also suggested that if the new administration could create fast growth, it would allow the US to deal with the tighter monetary conditions that come with a higher currency.

但他也提出，如果新一屆行政當局能夠促成快速經濟增長，那將讓美國有能力應對伴隨更高匯率而來的偏緊的貨幣條件。

Previous incoming administrations have sworn fealty to a strong dollar, saying it was in the interests of the US economy — even when the currency’s value was arguably then doing more harm than good. It was part of a broader US strategy aimed at allowing the currency to find its own value rather than trying to micromanage the exchange rate.

前幾屆行政當局在就職時都誓言要堅守強勢美元，稱其符合美國經濟的利益——即便當時的美元匯率可以說弊大於利。這是美國整體戰略的一部分，旨在讓本幣找到自己的價值，而不試圖對匯率進行微觀管理。

With the dollar trading at near-14-year highs against a basket of peers, Mr Trump’s team faces a serious barrier to its goal of reducing the US trade deficit.

鑑於美元兌一籃子貨幣的加權匯率逼近14年高點，特朗普團隊減少美國貿易赤字的目標面臨嚴重障礙。

The danger is that if the US starts suppressing the value of its currency it could spark a currency war greater than the skirmishes seen after the 2008 global financial crisis. Besides China such a war would draw in economies in Europe and Japan. It also would mark an unwinding of the G7 consensus that markets ought to set the value of currencies.

危險在於，如果美國開始壓低美元匯率，它可能引發一場貨幣戰爭，其規模大於2008年全球金融危機後出現的小衝突。除了中國以外，這樣的戰爭將捲入歐洲各經濟體以及日本。它也將標誌着7國集團(G7)共識（應該由市場決定貨幣的價值）的瓦解。

“We haven’t seen anything yet. If the president of the US begins talking the dollar down, we will have currency wars and it will make a mockery of previous things that we thought were wars,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

“大幕還未升起。如果美國總統開始用言論壓低美元，我們將會見證的貨幣戰爭將使我們以往所稱的戰爭像是搞笑，”布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球匯率策略主管馬克?錢德勒(Marc Chandler)表示。

He argued that Mr Trump could end up unwinding the G7 view, triggering instability in financial markets and discouraging foreign investors from investing in US assets.

他提出，特朗普可能最終放棄G7的觀點，引發金融市場不穩定，並阻礙外國投資者投資於美國資產。

“This is a case where the stirrings of a currency war could set the ground for a broader trade war,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell economist and author of The Dollar Trap.

“目前情況是，一場貨幣戰爭的鼓譟可能爲一場全面的貿易戰爭開闢好戰場，”康奈爾大學(Cornell)經濟學家、《美元陷阱》(The Dollar Trap)作者埃斯瓦爾?普拉薩德(Eswar Prasad)表示。

“It does raise the spectre of trade tensions with many of the US trading partners. Once you give up the strong dollar policy and start focusing on the [level of the] currency it does raise the prospect of bringing to a head many of the trade tensions with key trading partners including Europe, Japan and China.”

“它確實引發了美國同許多貿易夥伴發生貿易緊張的幽靈。一旦你放棄強勢美元政策，開始糾結於美元匯率水平，那確實會使美國與歐洲、日本和中國等主要貿易伙伴之間的貿易緊張白熱化。”

It is far from clear that comments of the sort Mr Trump and Mr Scaramucci have made will achieve a sustainable reduction in the currency’s value. Some analysts question the potency of such verbal interventions, especially at a time when Mr Trump’s apparent willingness to advocate deficit-widening tax cuts could bring forward interest-rate rises and add to the dollar’s strength. Further, Mr Trump’s decision to criticise Chinese foreign exchange policies seem out of date: recently Beijing has not been seeking to push down its currency but rather to prop it up.

遠非清楚的是，特朗普和斯卡拉穆奇發表的言論會不會實現美元匯率的持久降低。一些分析師質疑這種口頭干預的效力，特別是鑑於眼下特朗普看上去願意支持擴大赤字的減稅措施，而這可能導致美聯儲加快升息步伐，從而加劇美元強勢。此外，特朗普批評中國匯率政策的決定似乎過時：近期北京方面並沒有試圖壓低人民幣，而是在支撐人民幣匯率。