中國對美貿易戰中的軟肋:大豆

XIAOWUSILI, China — For all its economic might, China hasn’t been able to solve a crucial problem.

中國小烏斯力——中國雖有經濟實力，一個關鍵性的問題卻尚未解決。

Soybeans. It just can’t grow enough of them.

這個問題就是大豆。中國無法種出足夠的大豆。

That could blunt the impact of one of the biggest weapons the country wields in a trade fight with the United States.

這可能會導致它在與美國的貿易鬥爭中所使用的主要武器的威力受到制約。

Beijing placed a 25 percent tariff on American soybeans last week in retaliation for the Trump administration’s levies on Chinese-made goods. Last year, soy growers in the United States sold nearly one-third of their harvest to China. In dollar terms, only airplanes are a More significant American export to China, the world’s second-largest economy.

上週，爲了報復特朗普政府對中國製造的商品徵收關稅，北京決定對美國大豆徵收25%的關稅。去年，美國的大豆種植者把近三分之一的收成賣給了中國。以美元計算，在美國向中國這個世界第二大經濟體出口的產品中，只有飛機超過了它。

Still, soy-producing states like Iowa and Illinois might not feel the tariffs’ impact right away. China buys so much soy from the United States — $14 billion last year — that it can hardly switch to new suppliers overnight. Foreign-grown soybeans are a key source both of low-cost protein for feeding livestock and of cooking oil for Chinese kitchens.

不過，像艾奧瓦和伊利諾伊這樣的大豆出產州，恐怕並不會立刻就感受到關稅的衝擊。中國從美國購買的大豆去年達到了140億美元，如此大的數量使其很難在一夜之間就轉向新的供應商。外國種植的大豆是牲畜飼料中的低成本蛋白質以及中國人廚房裏的食用油的主要來源。

China is pressing its own farmers to grow more. But the math is daunting, and the obstacles are formidable.

中國正在敦促本國農民增加大豆的種植面積。但從數字上看形勢令人氣餒，並且面臨巨大的困難。

Just ask Cao Xiumin. For the past 16 years, she has been growing corn and soybeans on a couple of acres near Xiaowusili, a village of about 600 people on China’s northeastern rim.

問問曹秀敏就知道了。在過去的16年時間裏，她一直在小烏斯力附近的幾英畝土地上種植玉米和大豆，這是中國東北邊陲一個生活着大約600人的村子。

Over all, she is not producing much more today than she was a decade ago. Her fields are small and not irrigated. The new, supposedly higher-yielding seeds promoted by the government are not much better than the older varieties, she says.

總體來說，她今天的產量並沒有比十年前高出太多。她的地不大，也沒有進行灌溉。她說，政府推廣的所謂高產新種子沒有比過去的那些品種高出多少。

“There isn’t any difference at all,” Ms. Cao said on a sweltering afternoon last week.

“沒啥太大變化，”曹秀敏在上週一個悶熱的下午說道。

Farm goods could be a big weakness for China should the trade conflict with the United States turn into an all-out brawl.

如果與美國的貿易衝突全面爆發，農產品可能會成爲中國的一大弱點。

China’s increasingly wealthy people want more and better food on their plates. But the country’s farms are generally too small and underdeveloped to keep up.

越來越富裕的中國人希望盤子上有更多更好的食物。但這個國家的農場總體上規模太小，發展無法滿足需求的增長。

Nearly 90 percent of the soybeans China consumed last year came from overseas — more than 100 million tons in total. (Mexico, the world’s No. 2 importer, bought just five million tons.)

中國去年消費的大豆中，近九成來自海外，總計超過一億噸（墨西哥作爲全球第二大進口國，僅購買了500萬噸）。

Replacing even a chunk of those with homegrown beans may prove as herculean a task for China as weaning itself from American microchips.

即便是用國產大豆取代進口，對中國來說可能也是一項艱鉅的任務，就像它擺脫對美國微芯片的依賴一樣。

This spring, after the Chinese government first proposed retaliatory tariffs on American soybeans, it got busy trying to dampen the potential blow to 1.4 billion stomachs.

今年春天首次提出對美國大豆徵收報復性關稅後，中國政府開始忙着降低此舉對14億中國人的胃可能帶來的打擊。

To increase the availability of other types of animal feed, China’s customs authority removed inspection requirements on a variety of agricultural byproducts, including peanut meal, cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal.

爲了增加其他類型的動物飼料供應，中國海關取消了對各種農副產品的檢驗要求，包括花生粕、棉籽粕和菜籽粕。

Farmers here in Heilongjiang, China’s top soybean-producing province, also caught wind of an order from the authorities: Grow more soybeans. Immediately.

中國最大的大豆種植省份黑龍江的農民們也接到了政府的命令：種更多的大豆。馬上就種。

As an incentive, the provincial government offered generous subsidies to farmers both for growing soybeans and for switching their fields to soy from corn.

作爲激勵，省政府向農民提供了慷慨的大豆補貼和玉米改種大豆輪作補貼。

Word of the new subsidies spread quickly on the social media app WeChat. And soon, many farmers were returning corn seeds and fertilizer they had already bought and planting soy instead.

新補貼的消息在社交媒體應用微信上迅速傳開。很快，許多農民就把已經購買的玉米種子和化肥退了回去，改種大豆。

With all the government support, Guo Qiang, a 35-year-old farmer in the village of Dawusili, said that he would love to grow only soybeans, and no corn, on his family’s 50 acres. But his farm cooperative requires that members rotate their crops to keep the soil healthy.

大烏斯力村一名35歲的農民郭強說，有了政府的支持，他很願意在家裏50英畝的田裏只種大豆，不種玉米。但他的合作農場要求成員輪種作物，以保證土地的肥沃。

“If it weren’t for these policies, I would obviously grow more soybeans,” Mr. Guo said. “Especially with these big things happening between China and America — this trade war and whatever — I think the prospects are much better for soy than for corn.”

“如果沒有這個輪作政策，我必然要種大豆，”郭強說。“尤其是中國跟美國國際大形式來講，這個貿易戰又啥的，我覺得大豆的前景還是比玉米要強得多。”

Even so, China would need to dedicate a huge fraction of the entire nation’s farmland — between a quarter and a third, by various estimates — to soy if it wanted to be self-sufficient.

即便如此，如果想自給自足，中國還需要將全國農用地的一大部分——依照不同統計，在四分之一至三分之一之間——用作種植大豆。

American farmers could still take a sizable hit in the long run if China’s tariffs prompt Brazil and other suppliers to expand their soy acreage, or if China bankrolls cultivation outside its borders. Many people from Heilongjiang are already growing soybeans across the Amur River in the Russian Far East, where land is cheap and plentiful.

長期來看，如果中國的關稅導致巴西及其他供應國擴大大豆種植面積，或是如果中國爲在其邊境外種植提供資金，美國農民仍然會遭受相當大的打擊。黑龍江許多人已經在黑龍江對岸的俄羅斯遠東種植大豆，那裏的土地充足，價格也便宜。

In 1969, fighting erupted between Soviet and Chinese troops along this border. But these days, relations are good and trade is brisk. In the border city of Heihe (pronounced “HEY-huh”), many street signs are written in both Chinese and Russian. In Xiaowusili (“SHYEEOW-oo-suh-lee”), the parks have trash cans painted to look like giant matryoshka nesting dolls.

1969年，蘇聯與中國軍隊曾在兩國邊境交火。但現如今，中俄兩國關係良好，貿易往來繁忙。在邊境城市黑河，許多街頭的指示牌都是以中文和俄文標識的。在小烏斯力，公園有着被塗得像俄羅斯套娃一般的垃圾桶。

China’s hunger for soybeans could deepen ties further. In a recent interview with the Chinese state news agency Xinhua, the head of a Russian soybean association said that the group was looking to team up with Chinese companies, and had set up an office in Heilongjiang’s provincial capital, Harbin, to attract investment.

中國對大豆的需求可能會讓該國與俄羅斯的關係更爲密切。在近期接受中國官方新聞社新華社的採訪時，俄羅斯一家大豆協會的會長表示，該組織正希望與中國公司展開合作，並且已經在黑龍江省會哈爾濱設立了辦公室，以吸引投資。

To reduce its dependence on American soy, Beijing could also try to squeeze more beans out of each acre at home. But farmers in Heilongjiang acknowledge they are a long way from being as productive as farmers in the United States, where agriculture is more mechanized and genetic modification is embraced.

爲了減少對美國大豆的依賴，北京還可以試圖提高國內每英畝土地的大豆產量。但黑龍江的農民承認，要達到與美國農民一樣的產量，他們還有很長的路要走。美國的農業較爲機械化，並且人們也接納轉基因大豆。

China allows imports of genetically engineered crops, but Heilongjiang forbids farmers to grow them. Many people here harbor deep doubts about such products’ safety, both for people and for the land.

中國允許進口轉基因作物，但黑龍江禁止農民種植它們。許多人對這類產品對人和土地的安全性存在很深的懷疑。

“I wouldn’t grow them even if the government allowed it,” said Gai Yongfeng, the head of the Jiaxing farm cooperative in Dawusili. “They’re bad for the soil. After you’ve grown them somewhere, nothing else will grow there. That’s what everyone says.”

“我是不可能種，國家政策允許的話，”大烏斯力嘉興合作社的負責人蓋永峯說。“對土壤不好。以後種了別的不長了，大家都這麼說。”

Around Heihe, some growers are trying to modernize in other ways.

在黑河附近，一些種植戶正在試圖用其他方式實現現代化。

Hou Wenlin started the Linfeng Modern Agricultural Specialty Cooperative in 2014. He does not believe that China will be able to replace soy imports entirely.

侯文林在2014年開辦了林豐現代農機專業合作社。他不相信中國能完全替換進口大豆。

“There’s no point,” Mr. Hou said. “It just can’t be done.”

“沒有啥太大意義，”侯文林說。“不可能的事。”

He does, however, believe that China can grow soybeans more scientifically. In one of his cooperative’s fields, the soy grows in neat rows that are spaced farther apart to keep the plants at the right temperature and moisture. Each season, he plants a number of different types of seeds to understand how each performs. He has two drones for spraying pesticide.

然而，他確實認爲中國能更科學地種植大豆。在他的合作社的一塊田中，大豆一排排種得很整齊，每一排之間的間隔都很大，以保證作物能有適宜的溫度和溼度。每一季，他都會播種下不同的種子，來了解每種的表現如何。他有兩架噴灑殺蟲劑的無人機。

Modern farming is expensive, however. And in Mr. Hou’s case, it involves a secret weapon: American technology.

但是，現代農業是很昂貴的。在侯文林這裏，則涉及一個祕密武器：美國技術。

In front of the cooperative’s office is a yard full of bright-green John Deere farm machines, which Mr. Hou buys with the help of government subsidies. Chinese machinery is cheaper but more prone to breakdowns, he says.

在合作社辦公室的前面，是一個放滿了翠綠色強鹿(John Deere)農業機械的院子，侯文林是在政府補貼的幫助下買下它們的。他說，中國機械較爲便宜，但卻容易出故障。

Even some of the fertilizer Mr. Hou uses comes from the United States.

就連侯文林用的肥料也來自於美國。

The Chinese equivalents are better now than they used to be. Earlier, though, there was something that was commonly said, according to Mr. Hou, among farmers around here who knew the chemical name of one of the most widely used plant foods:

中國的肥料如今比以前要好多了。但在過去，這裏像侯文林這樣的農民有一句俗話，用來評價一種被廣泛用於種植的化學品：

“We rely first on the heavens,” the saying went. “We rely second on American diammonium phosphate.”

“一靠老天，”這句話說。“二靠美國老二胺（磷酸二胺)”。