特朗普想讓美國奉行孤立主義

The damage a President Trump could do to the American republic is thankfully limited. A president is not a king. There are laws and a court to enforce them. There is Congress to block him. If a president breaks the law, he can be impeached. America may become a More intolerant and chaotic place under Donald Trump, but thanks to its institutions the republic will survive.

謝天謝地，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當選爲總統對美利堅共和國的破壞將是有限的。總統不是國王。他們會受到法律和法庭的限制，而且還有國會的掣肘。如果總統違法，他可能受到彈劾。在特朗普的領導下，美國可能成爲一個更加偏狹和混亂之地，但得益於其制度，美利堅共和國將會存活下來。

The world is a different matter. The president enjoys his or her greatest power in foreign policy. His power to use force is well known. As important, though, is what he can choose not to do. He can unilaterally refuse to defend an ally. He can choose to strike a bargain with Russia instead of deterring it. He can pull out of a trade deal. There are fewer checks and balances. Damage done in one year may never be undone.

全世界的情況則有所不同。美國總統在外交政策上的權力最大。他動用武力的權力衆所周知。然而，同樣重要的是，他可以選擇不做什麼。他可以單方面拒絕捍衛盟友。他可以選擇與俄羅斯達成協議而非威懾。他可以退出貿易協定。美國帶來的制衡作用將會減弱。一年的破壞就可能永遠難以消除。

A Trump administration would pose the greatest shock to international peace and stability since the 1930s. This is not because Mr Trump would invade other countries but because he would unilaterally liquidate the liberal international order that presidents have built and defended since Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If the word “isolationist” has any meaning, he qualifies as one.

特朗普政府對國際和平和穩定的衝擊將會是上世紀30年代以來最大的。這不是因爲特朗普將會入侵其他國家，而是因爲他將會單方面地瓦解自富蘭克林•德拉諾•羅斯福(Franklin Delano Roosevelt)起美國曆任總統創建和捍衛的國際自由秩序。如果“孤立主義者”這個單詞有意義的話，他就是一個孤立主義者。

Mr Trump has a coherent and consistent worldview that dates back almost 30 years when he spent $95,000 on a full-page advertisement in the New York Times to publish an open letter to the American people on US foreign policy. It was this worldview that he described to the Washington Post editorial board on Monday. It appears in virtually every interview and speech he has given about world affairs since the 1980s.

特朗普擁有一套連貫一致的世界觀，其痕跡可以追溯至近30年前，當時他拿出9.5萬美元在《紐約時報》(New York Times)刊登了一整版廣告，向美國民衆發表關於美國外交政策的公開信。他在本週一向《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post)的編委描述了這種世界觀。實際上自上世紀80年代以來，他在幾乎每場關於世界事務的採訪和演講中都闡述了這種世界觀。

Simply put, Mr Trump thinks America’s allies and partners are ripping it off and he wants out of America’s leadership role in the international order. Over and over again, Mr Trump has questioned why the US defends Japan, South Korea, Germany and other nations without being paid for it. Just this week, he promised to significantly diminish US involvement in Nato and when asked if America “gained anything” from having bases in east Asia he replied “personally I don’t think so”. This is not about a more equitable share of the burden, which many have called for. Mr Trump believes that the US gains little from having allies unless it is paid handsomely paid by them.

簡言之，特朗普認爲美國的盟友和合作夥伴在敲美國的“竹槓”，他希望美國退出國際秩序中的領導角色。特朗普一次次地質問，爲何美國要不計報酬地捍衛日本、韓國、德國以及其他國家？就在本週，他承諾大幅削減美國在北約的參與，而且在被問及美國是否從東亞的基地“獲得什麼”的時候，他回答稱“我個人認爲沒有”。這不是像許多人呼籲的那樣更加公平地分擔責任。特朗普相信，美國幾乎沒有從結盟中受益，除非盟友們支付豐厚報酬。

He also opposes every trade deal America has signed over the past 30 years. He wants to use tariffs and other protectionist measures to bludgeon other countries into accepting lopsided agreements that disproportionately benefit the US. He has suggested charging other countries for use of the sea lanes. Under his presidency, the open global economy would slam shut.

他還反對美國在過去30年簽署的所有貿易協定。他希望動用關稅和其他保護主義措施來強迫其他國家接受讓美國從中極大受益的不對稱協議。他提議對其他使用航路的國家收取費用。如果他擔任美國總統，開放的全球經濟將砰然關閉。

As he shuns America’s allies, Mr Trump would seek to strike deals with Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, and other authoritarian strong men. Mr Trump has received Mr Putin’s endorsement and has called for much better relations with Russia.

在避開美國盟友的同時，特朗普會尋求和俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)等專制的政治強人領袖達成協議。特朗普已經得到了普京的支持，並呼籲大力改善美俄關係。

Meanwhile, to deal with threats to the American homeland, Mr Trump has promised his own Chechnya-style scorched-earth policy of targeting civilians and using torture.

同時，爲了應對美國國土的威脅，特朗普承諾實施他的車臣式焦土政策——把平民列爲打擊目標，並使用酷刑。

Some think that Mr Trump will moderate these positions if he is elected, but it is unlikely that a 70-year old who has held these views for decades and probably views himself as a prophet will abandon them at exactly the moment he feels vindicated and empowered.

有些人認爲，當選後特朗普的這些立場會有所緩和，但一個數十年來都抱着這些想法，並且很可能把自己看成先知的70歲的人，不太可能在他感到自己被證明有理而且掌握權力的那一刻放棄這些想法。

The day after his election, allies in Europe and Asia will rightly worry if their security relationship with the US remains intact. Russia and China will have an unprecedented opportunity to achieve in a single presidential term what they thought would take decades, namely the destruction of the US-led alliance system.

在他當選之後，美國在歐洲和亞洲的盟友完全有理由擔憂它們與美國的安全合作關係是否還能保持原樣。俄羅斯和中國將獲得一個史無前例的機會在一屆總統任期內完成它們此前認爲需要花數十年才能實現的目標——即摧毀美國領導的同盟體系。

These are the true stakes of the 2016 election. The campaign will be unlike any other as the fundamental pillars of post-second world war American foreign policy are put up for debate. Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee, might be synonymous with the establishment, but her destiny is clear. It is to explain why an open and liberal international order benefits ordinary Americans. It is to show how the closing of the global economy, the end of alliances and dawning of an authoritarian age poses as great a threat to American interests now as it did in the late 1940s when the architecture of US leadership was created.

這是2016年的美國大選真正關係重大的地方。這場大選不同於其他任何一場，因爲美國二戰後外交政策的核心成爲了辯論的焦點。很可能會成爲民主黨總統候選人的希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)或許是建制派的代名詞，但她的使命很清楚。那就是解釋爲何自由開放的國際秩序讓普通美國人受益，向他們展示國際經濟的封閉、同盟的瓦解，以及威權時代的到來對美國利益威脅之大將不亞於上世紀40年代末由美國扮演領導角色的架構剛建立的時候。

The international order can survive many things — terrorist attacks, Russian aggression, Chinese revisionism and an international financial crisis — but the collapse of American leadership may prove a disaster too far.

國際秩序能夠經受住許多東西的侵襲——恐怖主義襲擊、俄羅斯的侵略、中國的修正主義和一場國際金融危機——但美國領導地位的崩塌很可能會被證明是一場破壞性過大的災難。